667
FXUS64 KOHX 021727
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1227 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1223 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

- There is a low-end flash flood threat today. Watch for ponding
  on roads.

- Low to medium rain chances continue each day through Thursday.

- Temperatures will gradually rise this week with 90s likely by
  Friday. Things cool back off into the low 80s this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1111 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

A cluster of showers and thunderstorms continues to move across our
southern counties this morning with rainfall amounts so far ranging
between a quarter of an inch to a half inch. PWAT values on this
morning`s sounding showed 1.27" which is right at the
climatological norm for this time of year, but storm motions will
be slow today, and with additional convection this afternoon,
there will be a low-end flash flooding threat. Middle TN remains
under WNW flow aloft as a cut-off low near the Great Lakes spins
deep troughing through the area. A shortwave will filter in this
afternoon, providing a bit more lift to aid in convective
initiation. CAMs are favoring this additional activity to spark
mainly along and north of I-40. Severe weather is not anticipated
as lapse rates and shear values remain poor. Activity will largely
wane with the loss of daytime heating, though some lingering
shower activity is likely across the Plateau overnight.

Wednesday will feature another low chance around 10-20% for
showers and storms. Temperatures will gradually rise through the
short term with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s and
overnight lows in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1111 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Troughing aloft will deepen as a strong upper low spins east across
Canada with the trough`s axis pushing east through Middle TN
Thursday. This push will bring higher PoP chances ranging from
40-70% Thursday with a *little* better wind threat as upper level
winds slightly increase. Shear and lapse rates are still
unfavorable for any widespread severe threat, but a strong storm
or two could be possible, especially over the Plateau where models
currently depict higher 850mb winds. Things will dry out and
really warm up Friday with highs currently forecast to reach into
the low to mid 90s, just in time for our next major cold front to
move through. This front will work its way though the area over
the weekend, bringing with it another chance for showers and
storms. The more notable feature this front will bring, though,
are temperatures nearly 10 degrees cooler than Friday. Highs for
this weekend are forecast to drop back into the low 80s with
overnight lows in the 50s!

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

There is a low to medium chance a terminal is impacted by a shower
or storm through the evening hours. PROB30 groups were included
during the window of greatest opportunity. If a terminal is
impacted, vis may be reduced to IFR/MVFR. The coverage of activity
will decrease after dark with models indicating fog development
over the plateau. MVFR vis was mentioned at CSV/SRB. All terminals
will return to VFR by 13z for the remainder of the forecast. Winds
this afternoon will be S/SSW at 5-10 kts with an occasional gust
to 20 kts. Winds will calm after 03/00z before increasing to
around 5 kts during the late morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      63  87  66  86 /  40  20  30  40
Clarksville    61  89  65  83 /  20  10  20  20
Crossville     57  77  58  77 /  40  30  40  70
Columbia       61  87  63  87 /  40  20  20  30
Cookeville     59  80  60  79 /  50  30  40  60
Jamestown      58  78  60  76 /  50  40  50  70
Lawrenceburg   60  84  62  86 /  40  20  20  40
Murfreesboro   61  86  63  87 /  50  20  30  50
Waverly        60  87  62  85 /  30  10  20  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Baggett
LONG TERM....Baggett
AVIATION.....Reagan