219
FXUS64 KOHX 142346
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
646 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 643 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

- Afternoon and evening thunderstorms will continue through the
  week.

- Although the severe weather risk is low, heavy rainfall, gusty
  winds, and frequent lightning will be possible.

- Warming trend will take place this week as many locations will
  near or surpass 100F for heat indicies.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 643 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

It was another day of pop up scattered showers and thunderstorms.
With PWATs above 2.0" across much of the area and slow storm
motion we did see some Flash Flooding with some of them.
Thunderstorm activity will wind down over the next few hours and
we should see mainly dry and humid conditions overnight. We will
have to watch out for some patchy fog overnight especially for
areas that saw rainfall today. Lows will be in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1054 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Summertime continues. Temperatures are in the 80s at this hour with
a few showers starting to show up. Storm coverage will increase
as we move into the afternoon hours. There is a remnant MCV
sitting in eastern Arkansas that will drift eastward. This could
fire up some of the activity for the afternoon. In regards to
severe storms, the threat will remain low but some gusty winds
will be possible with the strongest cells. PWAT values remain
1.8-2" which will aid in some heavy rain. Outside of localized
street flooding, the flash flood threat is low. Areas of patchy
fog will develop again overnight. Tuesday looks pretty similar to
today with diurnal showers and storms. Highs for today and
tomorrow will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. A couple locations
may creep into the mid 90s on Tuesday depending on the how
widespread storms are. If temperatures are able to get into the
mid 90s on Tuesday, heat index values may exceed 105 degrees. I
will not do a Heat Advisory because my confidence is not high
enough of widespread values over 105.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 1054 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

The pattern is expected to remain pretty stagnant through the long
term forecast. There is a low that will work eastward across the
northern gulf, but that should stay far enough west of Middle
Tennessee before it makes the northern turn inland to really
affect our storm coverage. Expect the diurnally driven convection
to continue with highs and lows around average. We`ll have to keep
an eye on afternoon heat index values as they may get into the
105-110 range especially Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

TS and SH should continue to dissipate this evening, but will
continue to monitor activity in western TN and amend as needed.
Winds will be light and variable overnight, with some FG possible
once again at CSV and SRB. More pop-up showers and thunderstorms
are expected tomorrow, but confidence in location is low so left
them out of the TAF for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      74  94  75  95 /  20  30  20  40
Clarksville    74  91  74  93 /  20  40  30  40
Crossville     68  89  69  88 /  20  30  20  60
Columbia       72  93  73  94 /  20  20  20  40
Cookeville     70  90  72  89 /  20  30  20  50
Jamestown      69  89  70  88 /  20  40  20  60
Lawrenceburg   71  92  72  93 /  10  20  10  50
Murfreesboro   72  94  73  95 /  20  20  20  50
Waverly        71  91  73  92 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Mueller
SHORT TERM...Reagan
LONG TERM....Reagan
AVIATION.....Holley