060
FXUS61 KOKX 021519
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1119 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) After a warm afternoon, a cold front brings a chance for
showers late this afternoon and into this evening. A few locally
heavy downpours are possible.

2) Rain chances return on Sunday, with a period of showers
possible into Sunday night.

3) The coolest air mass of the season so far moves in early
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Raised temperatures slightly across the region, considering the
greater amount of solar insolation across the region early on
today. Still not close to the records for this calendar day with
a range of forecast highs from the mid 70s to upper 80s. The
upper 80s are for parts of Northeast NJ with NYC Metro mainly in
the mid 80s.

A warm October day is ahead before cooler air returns behind a cold
frontal passage this evening.

H850 temps progged around 17C this afternoon thanks to deep-layered
WSW flow. While surface high temperatures are a good 10 to 15
degrees above climo this time of year, records are not in
jeopardy.

Frontal boundary advances closer through the day and guidance is
suggestive of a broken line of showers preceding it. With CAMs
mostly indicating some showers across the region along with the
broken coverage, raised some POPs this afternoon into this
evening to likely for some areas.

A few of the CAMs are more bullish with the thermo environment,
offering at least several hundred joules of CAPE and ELs
approaching -30C late today. Particularly the NAM has been
consistently showing more instability and more convection
compared to other models recently with this event.

Some guidance suggests a sufficient enough warm nose in the mid
levels that would result in less instability. Opted to maintain
the slight chance of thunder mid to late this afternoon as the
main forcing works in and added moderate showers as a nod to the
potential for some embedded heavier rainfall. Not out of the
question a quick inch of rain could fall in some locales should
the more aggressive solutions pan out, but this would likely be
limited in scope. In general, QPF remains under a half inch for
most, and some may remain dry.

A few post frontal showers could linger into the first part of the
overnight with a bit better upper support as a jet advances east.
High pressure then quickly scoots east from the Great Lakes,
and conditions dry out with NW flow advecting in a drier,
cooler regime. Skies clear in the morning and abundant sunshine
prevails in the afternoon with the cool, N/NE wind. Temperatures
fall 10 to 15 degrees from their peak today, with afternoon
highs around 70 for most. Dry conditions then persist through
Saturday night.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
By Sunday, a wave of low pressure along the same front that
moves through tonight slides off the Mid Atlantic coast,
potentially grazing the region from the south into Sunday night.

Still some spread in guidance with the strength and placement of
this wave, but the growing consensus is that it passes close
enough to produce periods of showers or light rain later Sunday
and Sunday night, especially for coastal areas.

QPF where it occurs is likely light and impacts should be minimal.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Conditions turn cooler early to mid next week, with Canadian
high pressure dropping south and ushering in the coolest air
mass of this early fall season so far.

Cold front moves through Monday ahead of a digging closed low
trough over eastern Canada and by Tuesday, daytime highs look
to top out within a couple of degrees either side of 60, or
about 10 degrees below normal. Tuesday night will likely bring the
coolest weather in several months, with 30s across the interior,
and 40s down to the coast, including NYC and the urban metros.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front will approach today and pass through late this
afternoon and this evening. High pressure will then follow,
passing to the north on Saturday.

Mainly VFR. Chance of brief MVFR in scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms ahead of the cold front from late
afternoon into early this evening. Post-frontal showers may
linger behind the cold front through about 06Z Saturday.

SW winds increase late morning into the afternoon with gusts
close to 20 kt. Wind become NNW less than to 10 kt after cold
fropa.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Higher confidence on timing of cold fropa and accompanying
showers possibly as early as 22Z but more likely 23Z-01Z.
Still cannot rule out an isolated tstm with fropa.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Saturday: VFR.

Sunday: MVFR or lower possible with chance of rain in the late
afternoon and at night. Best chance for rain will be at the
coastal terminals.

Monday: Brief MVFR possible in showers early, otherwise VFR. NW
winds G15-20kt developing in the afternoon.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Cold front approaches from the west today, with increasing SW
flow and building seas on the ocean. Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
remains in place for coastal ocean waters east of Fire Island
Inlet from late this morning through this evening. Seas up to
5 ft and wind gusts around 25 kt can be expected here.
Otherwise, sub-SCA conditions for Long Island Sound, Long Island
Bays, NY Harbor and ocean west of Fire Island Inlet out to 20 nm.

Conditions then generally remain below SCA criteria on the coastal
waters this weekend as N flow early Saturday veers E by Sunday.

A cold frontal passage late Monday will likely bring a return to
unsettled conditions with gusty NW winds developing behind it.
SCA conditions appear likely on at least the ocean, and perhaps
all coastal waters Monday night. Conditions improve into midweek.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ350-353.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM/DR
AVIATION...BG/DW
MARINE...DR