353
FXUS61 KOKX 200222
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
922 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure settles in through Thursday night before pushing
offshore Friday. A frontal wave impacts the area Friday night
into Saturday morning. High pressure returns Friday afternoon
and remains in place through early Tuesday. Another frontal
system looks to impact the area late Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Clear skies and light winds continues across the region and
temperatures continue to fall. High pressure continues to build
into the region from the WNW. BUFKIT soundings do however show
more in the way of high level clouds closer to and after
midnight. This does result in a bit of a difficult temperature
forecast for tonight around how much radiational cooling gets
maximized. The coldest time of night may actually be closer to
midnight, as opposed to just before daybreak for a large portion
of the area. This is because forecast soundings generally
indicate that enough cloud cover could work in towards and after
06z. Thus mostly clear skies give way to partly to mostly
cloudy skies later at night. The growing season has officially
ended across the region, with the exception being for metro
portions of Western LI, NYC metro including SE portions of NE
NJ. Did carry some patchy and areas of frost in mainly outlying
sections for the late evening and early in the overnight when
radiational cooling gets maximized. Minimum temperatures should
range from mainly the upper 20s to the north and northwest, to
30s along the coast, with upper 30s in the NYC metro.

Thursday will feature a good deal of clouds early, otherwise
the sun will be filtered by mainly upper level clouds towards
midday, with less filtering of the sun later in the day. With
surface high pressure nearby look for light winds with
temperatures averaging a few degrees below the climatology, with
mainly upper half of the 40s for daytime maximum temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Skies will start off mainly clear Thursday night with surface
high pressure directly over the region. Later Thursday night
some upper level energy out ahead of a more southern stream
based trough attempts to draw closer. Some upper level moisture
will streak out ahead of the system, thus another round of
mainly high level clouds works in for the second half of
Thursday night. The low and mid levels will remain dry.
Temperatures once again will likely fall quickly during the
evening, but then with the arrival of clouds temperatures should
hit a floor. If the clouds arrive on schedule temperatures will
not fall quite as low as the previous night. Minimum
temperatures should range mainly around 30 well to the north,
with 30s and lower 40s elsewhere.

On Friday high pressure gets offshore and a return flow out of
the SW gets going, especially into the afternoon. This should
allow temperatures to get back to climatological norms with
mainly lower 50s for daytime max temperatures. Cloud cover is
progged to thicken and lower some in advance of the shortwave
feature approaching from the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. With
the shortwave beginning to dampen out it is likely to remain
dry, at least for during the day Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A frontal wave will pass through the area Friday night, exiting
Saturday morning. This frontal wave, passing in tandem with a
subtle shortwave aloft, brings passing rainfall to the area,
mainly Friday night with lingering showers possible into
Saturday morning before the front completely exits the area.
More persistent rainfall is anticipated closer to the frontal
boundary, which will lead to slightly better chances in southern
portions of the CWA compared to northern areas. Either way,
rainfall will be marginal with no concerns for flooding.
Temperatures prior to the frontal wave will be somewhat near
seasonal averages.

High pressure builds in at the surface following the front`s
exit and remains in control late Saturday through early Tuesday.
This period will remain primarily dry, but with a few subtle
shortwaves passing aloft, it may not be all sunshine all the
time. Temperatures will be at their coldest following the
frontal passage with lows Saturday night in the mid/upper 20s in
the interior and near or just above freezing at the coast.
Highs are then expected o remain in the 50s with nightly lows in
the 30s to 40s.

High pressure exits as another low pressure system brings
through rainfall with another cold front late Tuesday into
Wednesday. Timing, magnitude, and track vary among the available
global guidance. But, all global guidances so far, do agree on
a frontal system impacting the area, one way or another. Most
global guidance thus far track the low to our north which would
keep temperatures warm enough to prevent any concerns for frozen
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure builds in overnight, moving overhead on Thursday,
and offshore late Thursday night into Friday.

VFR through the TAF period.

Winds generally light and variable through the forecast with a
light northerly component overnight into early Thursday morning.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday night: VFR.

Friday: Mostly VFR. MVFR possible in the afternoon. SW winds G15-
20kt.

Friday night through Saturday: MVFR or lower at times in rain. N/NW
winds G15-20 kt Saturday.

Sunday through Monday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Tranquil seas and light winds prevail through Thursday night as
high pressure settles over the waters. A S to SW flow increases
Friday, but conditions are expected to remain sub advisory with
eastern ocean wind gusts late in the day approaching 20 kt.
Thus, there will be a short window for near 25 kt gusts possible
Saturday morning with a frontal passage. Otherwise sub-SCA
conditions are expected for much of the long- term forecast
period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There remain no hydrologic concerns.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JE/BR
NEAR TERM...JE/MET
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...BR
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JE/BR
HYDROLOGY...JE/BR