451
FXUS61 KOKX 150832
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
432 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes were made to the forecast with the latest
update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry and sunny conditions through Thursday. No hazardous
weather expected.

2) Chances of rain return to the forecast Thursday night into
Friday and again late in the weekend into early next week.
Limited to low impacts expected at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
An upper level ridge builds in from the southwest today with high
pressure building in at the surface. This high will remain in
control through Thursday. This pattern will lead to plenty of sun
and dry conditions through Thursday.

Another day of below normal highs and drier air today. With the high
shifting offshore late today/tonight, the synoptic flow becomes more
S/SW which will aid in a return of normal/slightly above normal
temps and increasing dewpoints for Wednesday and Thursday.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Upper level ridging breaks down late Thursday into Thursday night. A
cold front is progged to move through sometime Thursday night into
Friday. This will bring the next chance of showers, which remains at
slight chance to chance. Given the timing, little to no instability
will be available and not expecting any thunderstorms at this time.

The next chance for a more widespread rain is late in the weekend
into early next week. At this time, guidance is hinting at the
expected frontal system tracking north of the area, which would
likely lead to the bulk of the rainfall being farther north. Any
instability would probably be limited, so while it`s too early to
have high confidence, severe weather and flooding chances so far
appear to be very low to none.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR with high pressure remains in control through the TAF
period.

Light NE winds to start will veer to the NE-ENE this morning,
then SE in the afternoon. Wind speeds should be under 10 kt.
SE-S winds diminish this evening, becoming light and variable
overnight.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of wind shifts may be off by 1-2 hours.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Late tonight-Thursday: VFR.

Thursday Night: Mainly VFR. Low probability of a shower
Thursday night.

Friday=Saturday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR and showers Saturday
night.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected through at least
the first half of the weekend. 25 kt gusts become possible Sunday
into early next week with a potential frontal system moving through.

Rip Currents...
Low rip current risk today and Wednesday. Winds today will be under
10 kt and a 3ft 6s E swell with a 1 ft 9s SE swell will likely only
bring 1 to potentially 2 ft surf height. Winds do increase a bit out
of the S/SW for Wednesday, but lack of significant swell will likely
keep the risk at low. There is potential for an upgrade to
moderate for Wednesday if the forecast winds or swell trend
higher.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JT
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JT