455
FXUS61 KOKX 150636
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
236 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
WPC has decreased the excessive rainfall outlook for
Sunday/Sunday night to marginal (Level 1/4).

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and a few thunderstorms late Sunday into early
Monday morning may produce locally heavy downpours with a risk
of minor urban/poor drainage flooding and localized flash
flooding.

2) Mainly dry and seasonably warm Monday afternoon through
Wednesday before the next chance of a shower or thunderstorm on
Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Dry conditions are expected today with high pressure building
over the northeast. The high will move to the east on Sunday as
a warm front approaches from the south and west. Broad parent
low pressure is likely to pass to our north Sunday into Sunday
night, but a secondary low pressure may develop over or just
south of the area. Several weak shortwaves will also pass across
the northeast at the same time. The system will quickly move
offshore Monday morning.

Warm advection ahead of the warm front Sunday afternoon will
support the development of a few showers. Showers and a few
thunderstorms are then expected Sunday evening through Sunday
night as the warm front sets up nearby the area. Global guidance
and the latest 00z CAMs have trended towards keeping the warm
front south of the area into Sunday evening, then moving the
warm front over Long Island along with the secondary low Sunday
night into early Monday morning.

The main concern with this system will be from locally heavy
downpours, mainly Sunday evening through Sunday night. The mid
level flow is largely a progressive westerly to northwesterly,
likely preventing significant flash flooding concerns. The heavy
rain/flooding threat may at its peak Sunday night when the warm
front is attempting to move over Long Island. A few of the
heavier showers/storms could produce peak rainfall rates between
1.5-2", but this appears to be an isolated concern at this time.

PWATs should peak around 2-2.25" Sunday evening and Sunday night.
Instability looks minimal during the day on Sunday, but starts
to increase a bit Sunday evening/night, especially along and
south of the warm front. The main axis of higher instability is
progged to remain well to the south, which should help minimize
the risk of flash flooding.

WPC has shifted the slight risk (level 2/4) south of the region
with a marginal risk (level 1/4) with its new Day 2 excessive
rainfall outlook. This is consistent with the latest model trend
on the heaviest rain occurring south and west late Sunday into
Sunday night. The flash flood risk will be localized with minor
urban and poor drainage flooding the main concern.

Any severe thunderstorm threat also appears minimal at this
time. The greatest concern for severe thunderstorms resides over
the Middle Atlantic where instability is higher. However, will
have to watch near and along the warm front/secondary low Sunday
night if instability were to increase more than currently
forecast.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
High pressure will build over the area Monday night through the
middle of the week. This will lead to dry conditions and seasonably
warm temperatures Tuesday into Wednesday. Models are coming into
slightly better agreement with the next upper trough moving over
the northeast on Thursday, which may send the next cold front
across the area supporting the next chance for showers and a few
thunderstorms. Timing of this system is still uncertain with
some guidance having it move through early Thursday, while
others move it through Thursday night. The latest NBM PoPs are
30-40 percent Thursday morning through Thursday night,
accounting for the aforementioned uncertainty.

Lingering showers and an isolated storm are possible early Monday
morning, mainly east of the NYC metro as the system shifts offshore.
Conditions should trend dry through the morning with only an
isolated shower/storm possible Monday afternoon and evening NW of
the NYC metro.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A weak cold front or surface trough passes through early this
morning, followed by high pressure building in from the
northwest.

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.

Winds will become light and variable this evening before
becoming NE at less than 10kt behind the passing front or
trough. Winds will then veer to the S/SE at 5-10kt at the
coastal terminals. Winds become light and variable once again
Saturday night.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of winds shifts today, especially at the coastal terminals,
may vary by 1-3 hours.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday Night: VFR.

Sunday: Mainly VFR in the morning. Increasing potential for MVFR or
lower thereafter with showers developing and moving in. Widespread
showers, potentially heavy at times at night with potential IFR.
Slight chance of thunderstorms. Southerly wind gusts near 15-20
kt afternoon into night.

Monday: MVFR or lower early with showers. Otherwise, improving
conditions throughout the day with eventual return to mainly
VFR.

Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR. Chance for showers and MVFR at night.
Southerly wind gusts 15-20 kt afternoon into night.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will lead to conditions well below SCA levels
on the waters through tonight. S flow gradually increases on
Sunday as the high moves offshore yielding potential for 25-30
kt wind gusts on the ocean, LI Bays and potentially the NY
Harbor and LI Sound. These winds may linger Monday morning on
the ocean east of Fire Island Inlet. Seas will also build Sunday
and especially Sunday night, reaching 5-7 ft. Conditions will
then remain below SCA levels Monday night through mid week as
high pressure builds back over the waters.

Rip Currents: The rip current risk remains low for today at ocean
beaches. The rip current risk increases to moderate on Sunday with
building seas, especially in the afternoon, to 3-4 ft and S winds
around 15 kt. The risk may increase to high for NYC and Nassau
ocean beaches, especially if winds end up higher and seas build
a bit faster.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DS
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...DS