936
FXUS61 KOKX 090005
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
805 PM EDT Tue Sep 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for all waters beginning
Wednesday night.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Chance of a thunderstorm Thursday afternoon and evening with
little to no impacts currently anticipated.

2) High rip current risk expected for Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
High pressure will remain in control through Wednesday, keeping
us dry through the period. A progressive upper trough will then
send a cold front towards the area Wednesday night into
Thursday. A pre-frontal trough may provide enough moisture
convergence and lift for a shower mainly north and west of the
city late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The models are
in good agreement with the trailing cold front moving through
the area Thursday aftn/eve. The pattern favors limited forcing
and only a brief window for deeper moisture and instability.
0-6km shear of 40-50kt would be sufficient for severe weather,
but instability is limited yielding a very low BRN blw 10. So
while there is a chance of a thunderstorm, severe weather still
looks unlikely at this point. Both SPC and WPC do not have any
of the forecast area within at least a marginal risk of severe
wx/flash flooding.

High pressure and dry conditions will return Fri and Sat, with
chances for a few shwrs Sat ngt and Sun as WAA develops aloft.

For temps, it will be warmest Wed and Thu ahead of the fropa,
then cooler but still close to normal thru the rest of the fcst
period.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Southerly winds increasing to 15 to 20 kt Wednesday afternoon
and seas building to 3 to 4 ft offshore will increase the rip
current risk at the ocean beaches to moderate in the afternoon,
possibly even high by evening.

The rip current risk increases to high on Thursday. While winds take
on a more westerly component and gradually diminish, a S/SW wind
wave of 5 to 7 ft will produce 3 to 6 ft breakers in the surf zone.
There could be some slow improvement in the afternoon into early
evening hours.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure currently over the area pushes offshore tonight. A
warm front lifts well north Wednesday.

VFR.

Winds diminish overnight, with many terminals becoming light
and variable. Winds become mainly southerly Wednesday morning
and increase to 10 to around 15 kt with gusts 15 to 25 kt.
Occasional gusts to 30 kt possible, especially mid to late
afternoon, especially for KJFK.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wednesday Night: VFR. Winds diminish overnight. MVFR in showers
possible late at night, mainly N and W of metro terminals.

Thursday: Chance of MVFR or lower in SHRA, possible TSRA. SW gusts
around 20 kt possible.

Friday: VFR.

Saturday: Mainly VFR. MVFR or lower possible late Saturday
night in any showers.

Sunday: MVFR or lower in any showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria
through tonight with high pressure over the waters. SW winds will
then increase ahead of an approaching cold front on Wednesday. A
SCA has been issued for all waters Wed night as winds hit
criteria. There is a low chance that a few gusts hit gale force,
particularly on the ocean and back bays.

Winds decrease on Thu invof the front, but seas will linger aoa
5 ft on the ocean most of the day. The SCA continues there thru
the day. A few extra hours may need to be added for the
remaining waters if winds are a bit slower to subside based on
the ultimate timing of the sys.

Conditions likely below SCA levels all waters Fri-Sun.

Rip Currents:

See Key Message 2.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Wednesday to 6 AM EDT Thursday
     for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Wednesday to 6 PM EDT Thursday
     for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...