822
FXUS61 KOKX 102352
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
752 PM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Offshore frontal boundary and area of low pressure track
farther out in the Atlantic into tonight. High pressure then
builds into the region through Saturday. Low pressure and
associated cold front will impact the region Sunday into Monday.
High pressure returns for Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Updated to remove chances of precipitation south of Long Island
early this evening as offshore low pressure continues to track
farther east of the region.

Weak 1014 mb wave of low pressure along a frontal boundary off
the Delmarva shifts farther out to sea tonight as surface high
pressure centered well off to the north and west builds east.

With the exiting system, improving conditions can be expected
into tonight.

NE flow lightens and backs more N into tonight, and a much drier
air mass punches in, with cloud cover eroding as PWATs fall from
over 1.5 in to 0.5 in by daybreak Thursday. Lows tonight range
from around 60 in NYC, to the upper 40s in outlying locales of
the interior LoHud Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Return to warmer and drier weather on Thursday.

Abundant sunshine and deep mixing above 800 mb should allow
temperatures to rebound a good 10 degrees compared to Wednesday.
Afternoon highs top out within a degree or two of 80 for most
locales away from the immediate shoreline.

Light N flow continues through the day, and dew pts falling
down into the 40s keeps humidity levels low. Temperatures
Thursday night fall back into the 50s and 60s for most.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Stuck fairly close to the NBM except for sky cover for the end
of the weekend and start of next week with forecast models
showing an upper level trough and cold front impacting the
region.

The long term period starts off with high pressure building
into the area Friday and Saturday. The high then slides
eastward, allowing an upper level trough to move across the
area. Some of the forecast models are hinting at an area of low
pressure developing at the base of the trough as it swings
across the region. So, expect clouds to increase along with a
chance of rain showers. NBM Sky grids seemed too low, so
increased cloud cover to make the forecast be more mostly
cloudy/overcast. Depending on the evolution of the trough moving
across the area and whether or not low pressure develops at the
base of the trough will depend on how much precipitation we
see.

The trough moves east late Monday into Monday night with drier
conditions moving in for Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure
builds back into the region.

High temperatures through the long term will be in the 70s.
Lows will be in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Offshore low pressure will gradually track away from the area into
Thursday, while high pressure builds in from the west.

VFR.

A light, less than 10 kt, northerly flow is expected through the
forecast period, with the exception of late Thursday afternoon
sea breezes at KJFK, KBDR, and KGON. The sea breeze may move
through KISP, but with low confidence forecast light and
variable winds late day.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of sea breeze at KJFK may be off an hour. The sea breeze
is not expected to reach KLGA, however, winds may become light
and variable late in the afternoon.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday night-Saturday: VFR.

Sunday into Monday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR with a chance of
showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect until noon Thursday
on local ocean waters for elevated seas as 5 to 6 ft seas
linger through Thursday morning or early afternoon before
subsiding.

Thereafter, conditions are expected to remain below SCA criteria
on all local waters through this weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through early next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
With a more N flow on Thursday, a moderate risk of rip currents
is expected. The moderate risk will continue into Friday.

Given astronomically high water levels from a recent full moon,
we can expect another round of minor coastal flooding for some
locales along the western LI Sound and the back bays of Nassau
during the time of high tide on Thursday. Advisories are in
effect for these locations. Confidence is low elsewhere, but a
statement could issued later for localized minor if the threat
increases.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 PM to 4 PM EDT Thursday for
     CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 PM to 4 PM EDT Thursday for
     NYZ071.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM to 2 PM EDT Thursday for
     NYZ179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Thursday for ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DR
NEAR TERM...DR/MET
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BC/DR/MET
HYDROLOGY...BC/DR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...