269
FXUS61 KOKX 101448
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
948 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves through this morning, followed by a stronger
cold front this evening. High pressure will then pass to the
south on Tuesday as low pressure intensifies over eastern Canada.
A weak frontal system approaches Tuesday Night and passes through
the region Wednesday into Wednesday night. High pressure builds
in Thursday into Friday, and moves offshore Saturday. Another
frontal system approaches for the end of next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

An anomalously deep closed upper low and longwave trough (-3 to
-5 std) continues to dig into the Ohio Valley this morning. A
broad area of low pressure is passing overhead and will drag a
weak cold front through this morning and a stronger cold front
later today.

Currently spotty light rain is falling along the front as it
moves through and this activity will gradually shift east
through the day. Some 06z guidance this morning is more
aggressive with PoPs this afternoon with a stronger wave of low
pressure moving over or nearby the area this afternoon. This
trend will need to be monitored as it will result in wetter
conditions than currently forecast.

A stronger cold front moves through later today and the coldest
airmass of the season will usher in with strong CAA. Guidance
consensus is that temperatures at several levels of the
atmosphere will be below or near the lowest daily observed
values for 11/11 12z per SPC`s Sounding Climatology Page.
Temperatures at 850mb are expected to be around -12C. The low
temperature forecast tonight generally remained the same or
lowered a degree or two. Confidence was high enough to convert
the Freeze Watch to a Warning and add Queens County.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level trough axis swings through during the day on Tuesday
and then brief zonal flow is expected before a shortwave trough
swings through Wednesday night.

The main story of the short term is the gusty winds on Tuesday.
Model soundings are showing deep mixing with strong winds at the
top of the mixed layer. Went higher than NBM 90th percentile but
thinking the forecast will trend even higher. 40 kt gusts are
not out of the question.

Additionally, given the deep cyclonic flow and heart of polar
airmass expected over the area on Tuesday, scattered to broken
cold pool instability cu development is expected. Some light
snow showers with extended lake streamers off the mild Great
Lakes are possible for the interior.

Model agreement lowers a bit for Wednesday with the shortwave
trough and associated surface features. Forecast is currently
dry, but some guidance is trending towards a stronger and wetter
solution like the 11/10 00z NAM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key points:

*  Temperatures slightly below seasonal normals much of the
   time, and up to 5 degrees below normal Friday night through
   Saturday night.

* Brisk westerly flow likely Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A wave of low pressure and cold front move through the
terminals through this evening. The terminals will be situated
between deepening low pressure to the north and building high
pressure to the south tonight through Tuesday.

Conditions vary from IFR to VFR. Expect these conditions to
continue through the morning as another round of showers is
expected later this morning (already developing across western
NJ and the Lower Hudson Valley as of 15Z) into a portion of the
afternoon. Confidence in flight categories remains low, but
thinking that VFR conditions prevailing through the afternoon is
less likely. Any MVFR conditions will become VFR by late
afternoon.

A light NW-N flow this morning should generally remain NW under
10 kt into the early afternoon. WNW-NW winds increase after
18z, becoming 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt possible. Gusts
around 20 kt are expected overnight, but could become
occasional, especially at outlying terminals. WNW winds
increase Tuesday morning with gusts 30-35 kt.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments likely for flight categories into early this
afternoon as uncertainty remains with the timing and extent of
MVFR ceilings.

Start time of gusts this afternoon may be off by 1-3 hours.

Gusts may become occasional overnight.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Tuesday: VFR. W winds G25-35kt. Slight chance of snow showers NW
of the NYC metro terminals.

Wednesday: VFR. WSW winds G20-30kt.

Thursday: VFR. NW winds G20-30kt.

Friday: VFR. WNW winds G15-20kt

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas gradually increase today and Small Craft Advisories
are in effect.

The Gale Watch has been converted to a Gale Warning on all
waters for Tuesday into Tuesday night. Winds will gust as high
as 35 to 40 kts and seas will reach around 10 ft on the ocean.

An extended period of hazardous marine conditions is likely across
the forecast waters, with at least SCA conditions Wednesday
Night through late Friday on the non ocean waters and into
Friday evening for the ocean waters. There may be a brief period
of gusts below SCA levels on the non ocean waters Thursday
evening into Thursday night. Westerly gales are likely to
develop on the ocean waters Wednesday into Wednesday evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns are expected through the weekend.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Tuesday for CTZ009>012.
NY...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ071>075-
     078>081-176>179.
NJ...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Tuesday for NJZ006-104-
     106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST
     Tuesday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
     Gale Warning from 6 AM Tuesday to 1 AM EST Wednesday for
     ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ350-353.
     Gale Warning from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 AM EST Wednesday for
     ANZ350-353-355.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MET/JT
NEAR TERM...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JP/DS
MARINE...MET/JT
HYDROLOGY...MET/JT