499
FXUS61 KOKX 030227
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
927 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure shifts farther out to sea tonight. Weak low pressure
then approaches from the south Monday ahead of a fast moving cold
front passage occurring Monday night. High pressure returns Tuesday
into Wednesday. A quick passing low moves through Wednesday
night into Thursday followed by high pressure again for Friday.
Another low may impact the area Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Lowered temperatures as calm winds and good radiational cooling
have commenced. For example, KMGJ in Orange county dropped 13
degrees in an hour earlier tonight as winds slacked. Locations
on eastern Long Island have also cooled already into the lower
40s. A cirrus deck advecting from the southwest along with
increasing southerly flow and rising dewpoints should act to
temper the cooling a bit over the next couple of hours. Previous
discussion follows.

Surface and upper ridges shift farther east out to sea tonight.
Light south to southwest winds for coastal areas, with much of
the inland locations decoupling with winds going calm. The
amount of radiational cooling and potential frost formation
could however be hampered for a period tonight by a broken deck
of cirrus progged to pass through. Will keep patchy frost in the
forecast for some of the interior as there could be enough time
towards daybreak for the clouds to thin out and be less of a
mitigating factor.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Weak low pressure emerges off the Carolina coast early on
Monday and heads NE through the day. An inverted trough extends
north toward the forecast area, acting as a focus for moisture
convergence. Meanwhile, upper troughing extending south from
Canada helps push a cold front through the Great Lakes Region
with the front crossing the local area in the evening. There
will be a brief period of subsidence created by the two systems.
Showers will still be possible from late morning through early
evening with lift from their respective mid level shortwaves
combined with an approaching left exit region of a strong upper
jet streak from the northern stream system. Models continue with
the trend of a wetter scenario, so have introduced likely PoPs
for eastern LI an SE CT. Highest overall chances of rain would
be in the afternoon to early evening.

High pressure then builds in from the west with a stronger pressure
gradient over the region. Dry and turning breezy overnight Monday
into Tuesday with WNW gusts 20-30 mph. Winds diminish Tuesday night
with the surface ridge shifting in. NBM temps were closely followed
in the short term. Seasonable temps are in the forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A very progressive pattern sets up in the long term with a series of
high and low pressure systems passing through Wednesday into next
weekend.

High pressure remains over the area on Wednesday morning with an
area of low pressure developing to the NW that slides north of the
area by Wednesday night. Much of the day Wednesday is expected to be
dry with increasing chances for showers toward evening and into
Wednesday night.

The low quickly moves through by Thursday morning with another day
of gusty NW flow expected as high pressure builds in once again from
the west. High pressure settles over the area late Thursday night
and into Friday morning with once again another low pressure system
approaching from the Great Lakes region. The low pushes a cold front
through the area with a chance of showers Friday night into
Saturday. Another pair of successive high and low pressure systems
may impact the area Saturday and Sunday respectively.

Regarding temperatures, highs each day Wednesday through Sunday will
be fairly seasonable with temperatures generally in the upper 50s to
possibly lower 60s. The coolest days will be Thursday and Sunday
with gusty NW flow advecting in cooler air where the highs are
expected to be in the lower to middle 50s. Lows follow a similar
pattern with temperatures each night being in the mid to upper 30s
inland to the upper 40s along the coast. The exception is Thursday
night where cooler temperatures across the area will mean lows in
the 30s for much of the area, to near 40 along the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mainly VFR through the TAF period. High pressure will give way
to weak low pressure approaching from the south Monday as a cold
front nears the terminals from the west.

Showers possible Monday afternoon for a period. Conditions
should remain VFR except for KISP and KGON which may briefly
flirt with MVFR cigs after 18Z Monday.

Light and variable winds overnight, becoming southerly by Monday morning
at 10 kt or less, then westerly and gusting 20-25kts near the
frontal passage Monday afternoon into Monday evening.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Onset of precipitation Monday may be off an hour or two.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday Afternoon: Rain possible with a low chance of MVFR
conditions, especially east of the NYC metro terminals.

Monday Night-Tuesday: VFR. NW winds G20-25kt Monday night and G25-30
kt on Tuesday.

Wednesday: VFR. Chance of showers at night SW-S winds G15-20 kt in
the afternoon, becoming W G15-25 kt at night.

Thursday: VFR. NW winds G20-25kt possible.

Friday: VFR. SW-S winds G15-20kt possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions will remain below SCA levels through Monday.
Increasing winds ahead of a cold front passage should bring the next
chance of SCA conditions Monday night. SCA conditions then continue
on Tuesday and an advisory will now be in effect accordingly.
Gusts 25-30kt expected during this time, and may get even close
to gale force on the ocean late at night into Tuesday morning.
5-7ft waves here as well during this time. Winds then diminish
Tuesday night with conditions falling below advisory thresholds
by late.

Sub-SCA conditions are then expected on all waters through
Wednesday morning, but winds and waves increase once again to
above SCA criteria on the ocean by Wednesday afternoon. All
other waters may see SCA conditions with gusts near 25 kt by
Wednesday night. These conditions persist for all waters through
at least Thursday afternoon. It`s also possible that the ocean
sees gale conditions with gusts 35-40kt late Wednesday night
into Thursday afternoon. A brief period of calm conditions may
overspread the area by Thursday night, but SCA conditions
quickly return by Friday afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through this week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Monday to 6 PM EST Tuesday for
     ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC
NEAR TERM...JC/DBR
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...DBR
MARINE...JC
HYDROLOGY...JC/MW