815
FXUS61 KOKX 100534
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1234 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Broad low pressure approaches from the west, with a warm front
approaching from the south this evening and passing north
tonight. A weak trailing cold front will pass through late
tonight into Monday morning, followed by a stronger cold front
Monday afternoon/evening. High pressure will then pass to the
south on Tuesday as low pressure intensifies over eastern
Canada. A weak frontal system approaches Tuesday Night and
passes through the region Wednesday into Wednesday night. High
pressure builds in Thursday into Friday, and moves offshore
Saturday. Another frontal system approaches for the end of next
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Trailing weak front approaches early this morning, with
development of weak low pressure`s tracking north along it, as
the Ohio Valley upper low slowly slides east. Isolated to
scattered shower activity likely along the front, with again
potential for localized heavy downpour in a weakly unstable
environment. Moreso the signal is for stratiform rain
in the wake of the front with deep layered lift ahead of
approaching upper low and divergent flow aloft. Ahead of the
front, areas of fog, locally dense, are possible.

Mild temps overnight for most the area (upper 40s/lower 50s)
with cloud cover and lagging caa.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Anomalously deep closed upper low and longwave trough (-3 to 5
std) over the eastern half of the country, slowly pivots NE
towards the area, over the region by Tue AM, and to the NE of
the region by Tue eve.

At the surface, weak trailing cold front (with low pressure
waves) shifts east of the area Mon morning, with stratiform
rain slowly tapering from W to E through the late morning into
afternoon. With lagging and slow eastward movement of upper
features/forcing, rain will likely be slow to taper from W to
E, possibly lingering into the late afternoon for E LI/SE CT.
More marked drying not likely until secondary cold frontal
passage Monday aft into eve from W to E.

Early highs in the upper 50s on Mon for much of the region, but
then strong caa ensues in wake of cold frontal passage Mon aft
into Mon Night on gusty W/NW flow (850 mb temps down to -11C).
This will bring in the coldest airmass of the fall season, with
low temps falling into the 20s across the interior and upper
20s/lower 30s for coast. With the potential of freezing
temperatures where the growing season has not yet ended, a
Freeze Watch has been issued for late Monday night into Tuesday
morning. The mixed low-levels should preclude frost development
for any areas that remain just above freezing. NW flow
(15-20G25-30mph) during this time will lead to wind chills in
the teens inland and lower 20s along the coast.

Deep cyclonic flow and heart of polar airmass expected over the
area on Tuesday as closed/low trough axis slide across the
region. This will result in scattered to broken cold pool
instability cu development, and can`t rule out a few flurries
across interior with extended lake streamers off the mild Great
Lakes.

Highs will struggle into the lower to mid 40s (10 to 15 degrees
below normal) with 850mb tempos of -8 to-9C. Additionally a
tight W/NW gradient between SE Canada low and southern high will
result in widespread 20-30g35-40mph across the area, and keep
windchills near or below freezing for much of the day.

Winds subside a bit Tue night and back WSW with gusts 25-35mph
ahead of an approaching weak shortwave/Great Lakes clipper
system. WAA flow, mixed low-levels and increasing high and mid
clouds will result in a milder airmass (low temps in the upper
20s interior and low to mid 30s coast). Can`t rule of a few
flurries across the interior and sprinkles/flurries along the
coast in waa regime.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key points:

* A fast moving frontal system passes through the northeast
  Wednesday into Wednesday night. Otherwise, dry as high
  pressure builds for Thursday into Friday. Another frontal
  system may affect the region for the end of next weekend.

*  Temperatures slightly below seasonal normals much of the
   time, and up to 5 degrees below normal Friday night through
   Saturday night.

* Brisk westerly flow likely Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A wave of low pressure and cold front moves through into early
morning.

LIFR-IFR conditions should begin to improve early this morning
as additional showers move across the terminals. These showers
likely persist through the morning push with at least MVFR
conds. Gradual improvement and return to VFR through late
morning for NYC terminals. MVFR conditions may linger into the
early afternoon with the exiting shower activity, especially for
LI and S CT terminals.

Light and variable flow early this morning, then NW/N after
daybreak. Winds may go more WSW or W toward 15Z, persisting the
rest of the day. Speeds increase from under 10 kt through
tonight and much of the morning, to 10-15G20-25kt in the
afternoon. Gusts may linger into the evening, and potentially
overnight into Tue AM.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Uncertainty in extent and duration of IFR conds overnight.

Lower confidence in wind direction into the morning, but higher
confidence that speeds remain below 10kt during this time.

Improvement to VFR could be delayed a couple of hours.

Start time of gusts may be delayed 1-3 hours late this
morning/early afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday Night: VFR. NW-W winds G20-25kt.

Tuesday: VFR. W winds G25-35kt.

Wednesday: VFR. WSW winds G20-30kt.

Thursday: VFR. NW winds G20-30kt.

Friday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Lighter winds expected tonight, then winds pick up to SCA for
all waters Mon AM into early afternoon behind a cold front,
gradually strengthening Mon Night, to gale by Tuesday AM with
tightening pressure gradient and strong caa over mild waters.
Gale conditions likely on the ocean waters, with moderate
potential for nearshore waters Tue AM into Tue night. Marginal
gales conditions possibly lingering for ocean waters on Wed,
with strong SCA elsewhere.

An extended period of hazardous marine conditions is likely across
the forecast waters, with at least SCA conditions Wednesday
Night through late Friday on the non ocean waters and into
Friday evening for the ocean waters. There may be a brief period
of gusts below SCA levels on the non ocean waters Thursday
evening into Thursday night. Westerly gales are likely to
develop on the ocean waters Wednesday into Wednesday evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns are expected at this time.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels likely fall just below minor flood thresholds for
this morning/afternoon high tide cycles.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for
     CTZ009>012.
NY...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for
     NYZ071>075-078>081-177-179.
NJ...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for
     NJZ006-104-106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EST
     Tuesday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
     Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night for
     ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ350-353.
     Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night for
     ANZ350-353-355.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 AM EST
     Tuesday for ANZ355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...MET/NV
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...MET/NV
HYDROLOGY...MET/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...