353
FXUS61 KOKX 141151
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
751 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal wave will pass to the south today. High pressure
builds in from the northeast tonight into Sunday. Weak high
pressure will then remain in place through at least Monday. A
nearly stationary front remains Tuesday with a wave of low
pressure affecting the region. The front moves north as a warm
front Tuesday night, passing north during Wednesday. A cold
front moves through the region Thursday night. High pressure
builds in Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A frontal wave passes to the south today and will bring cloudy
and wet conditions to the area. Showers are already ongoing and
coverage is expected to increase heading into the morning hours.
Moisture increases as the frontal boundary slowly drifts closer
to the area, with pwat values expected to reach just below 2
inches. This moisture combined with lift provided by the right
rear quadrant of an upper level jet and some subtle disturbances
moving through a mostly zonal 500mb flow will continue to
result in showers. No thunderstorms are expected given only
limited and shallow MUCAPE. However, a rumble of thunder can not
be completely ruled out. Although thunder is not expected,
there could be some low topped convective activity that can
produce heavy downpours given the anomalously high moisture. At
this time no hydrologic impacts are expected. The steadier and
heavier rain will likely be in the morning hours. In the
afternoon, coverage and intensity are expected to decrease.
Totals are about half an inch for NYC, northeast NJ and Long
Island with 0.25 to 0.50 inches for the Lower Hudson Valley and
southern CT. Locally higher amounts up to an inch are possible.

The frontal wave will pull the boundary farther offshore tonight and
high pressure will start nosing in from the northeast. As drier air
filters in, PoPs decrease, but still remain slight chance/chance
through the night.

NBM was followed for temperatures giving highs in the 60s and lows
in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure continues to build in from the northeast on Sunday.
PoPs continue to decrease with a dry day expected for the most part,
especially for eastern Long Island and eastern CT. Confidence in
also increasing in some breaks of sun for these eastern areas and
have lowered sky cover just a bit. Given this, also upped
temperatures a few degrees in these areas. Otherwise NBM was
followed for temps through this time period.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A nearly stationary front remains south of the region Tuesday as
another wave of low pressure moves along the boundary with a chance
of showers by late day. With the approach of a trough and surface
low moving through the upper Midwest and into southern Canada
Tuesday night into Wednesday, the front is expected to beginning
moving to the north as a warm front, and likely pass to the north
during Wednesday. A cold front approaching during Thursday and
passes through the area Thursday night. While there will be slight
to chance probabilities of rainfall Tuesday into Wednesday night,
the best chances for rainfall will be with the cold front
approaching during the day Thursday, and currently forecast to pass
through the region Thursday night. Precipitable water values
increase to around 1.75 inches, and there will be surface based and
elevated CAPE in place. With a warm and unstable airmass ahead of
the front, there is the potential for thunderstorms, some of which
may produce briefly heavy rainfall.
At this time the storms will be moving rather quickly, and training
is not expected, so hydrologic impacts are not expected. An
amplifying ridge across the central United States Thursday night
approaches for Friday and into the beginning of next weekend. With
no targets of opportunity have used the deterministic NBM through
the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A stationary front remains south of the area, across the
Delmarva and well south of Long Island, as a weak low moves
along the boundary through today. The front may move farther to
the south, with low pressure exiting, this evening into tonight.
High pressure builds into the region from the northeast late
tonight into early Sunday morning.

Low to moderate confidence forecast with the timing of flight
category changes into this morning, and for timing of rain.

Mainly MVFR with a few locations still VFR early this morning,
with periods of light to moderate rain. By 13Z/14Z conditions
lower to widespread IFR with generally a light rain through the
day. Rain is expected to end or become intermittent late in the
day into this evening, with IFR ceilings. Conditions begin to
improve late tonight into early Sunday morning, from the
northeast as high pressure noses into the region from the
northeast.

Winds NE 10-14kt through today, diminishing a few kts this
evening.


    NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments for timing of changing flight categories and timing
of rain.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Sunday - Monday: Slight chance of showers, mainly from the New
York City terminals and west, with MVFR to IFR possible at
times. Otherwise VFR.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, slight chance of showers late day into the
night, with a chance of MVFR to IFR.

Wednesday: Mostly VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms with a
period of sub-VFR.


Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
An easterly wind will bring waves to 5 ft on the ocean waters.
Stuck closer to WaveWatch as NWPS seemed a bit low given a
sustained wind at 15-20 kt for several hours. A Small Craft
Advisory has been issued for tonight. Otherwise, sub SCA
conditions expected through Monday night.

Winds and seas remain below SCA levels across the forecast waters
Tuesday through Thursday. With the approach of a cold front
Thursday, passing through the waters Thursday night, southwest to
west winds will be increasing. By later Thursday night wind gusts on
the ocean waters east of Fire Island Inlet  may approach SCA levels,
and ocean seas may build to near 5 feet.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected Tuesday through the end of the
week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Sticking with moderate risk of rip currents for ocean beaches today.
Some uncertainty in exact strength and direction of winds which in
turn will affect wave heights and direction. If winds end up more
northerly than forecast, the rip current activity will likely be
lower and the risk may be updated during the day.

Winds will be more easterly on Sunday an around 10 kt. An E wave
component around 4 ft at 6s will result in a low risk of rip current
activity.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Sunday
     for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MET/JT
NEAR TERM...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MET/JT
HYDROLOGY...MET/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...