915
FXUS61 KOKX 211525
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1025 AM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure weakens today as it shifts farther offshore. Weak
low pressure then passes not too far to our south tonight into
Saturday morning. High pressure then builds back Saturday
afternoon and will remain in control through early next week.
The high moves offshore on Tuesday followed by the next frontal
system impacting the area late Tuesday into Wednesday. High
pressure should build towards the area next Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Abundant low level moisture on warm advection and some weak lift
ahead of an approaching warm front well to the southwest has
produced some light sprinkles/mist across mainly coastal areas
and southern CT. This will likely last until late morning to
around noon time. Previous discussion follows:

High pressure will be moving farther out to sea today. Moisture
advection from the west leaves us with a mostly cloudy day, but
remaining dry. High temperatures today will be milder than
those of yesterday in spite of the cloud cover and near normal
in the range of 50-55 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Various models are now in better agreement compared to 24 hours
ago regarding the northern extent of the precip shield
associated with weak low pressure passing to our south tonight
into Saturday morning. Although the low itself is weak, upper
divergence courtesy of favorable positioning of a jet streak
couplet should help bring the likelihood of rainfall to roughly
the southern half of the forecast area. NBM 6-hour PoPs for late
tonight matches this thinking. Greatest chances of rain overall
will be after midnight tonight until mid-morning Saturday. No
hydrologic impacts expected as rain amounts likely remain below
a quarter of an inch. High pressure then builds back in for rest
of Saturday with clearing and dry conditions. Highs for
Saturday near normal again at 50-55.

The high pressure ridge axis shifts into the region during
Sunday with a continuation of fair weather. High temperatures a
little cooler this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Points:

* Rain is forecast late Tuesday into Tuesday night. The chance of
  rain continues on Wednesday, but confidence is lower.

* Seasonably cool and dry conditions on Monday, becoming milder for
  Tuesday and Wednesday.

* The potential remains for a seasonably cool and dry Thanksgiving.


NBM was followed with no significant changes. Regarding the
rain chances from Tuesday through Thanksgiving, highest chances
still appear to be during Tuesday night with hydrologic impacts
unlikely. Rain chances continue into Wednesday, but at least
there`s a little more confidence that chances are no more than
50%. Then for Thanksgiving Day, deterministic and ensembles for
the most part favor a more progressive motion with the mid-week
storm system, leaving us with a good chance of dry conditions
through the day.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure moves offshore through today. A cold front
approaches this afternoon and moves through late tonight into
Saturday morning as a frontal wave passes to the south. High
pressure builds to the west Saturday.

MVFR to start, likely improving to VFR by early afternoon.
Conditions lower to MVFR and IFR late tonight, after 05Z, with
light rain. Best chances of rain and IFR will be at the NYC
metro terminals and east. Rain ending north and west toward 12Z
Saturday.

Winds light SW to start, increasing to around 10 kt by 17Z.
Winds shift to the W and NW late tonight less than 10 kt.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments likely for the timing of improvement to VFR this
afternoon. Occasional MVFR is possible even after going MVFR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Saturday: MVFR/IFR early, improving to VFR by 17Z. Chance of
light rain east of NYC terminals early. Winds NW to N 5 to 10
kt.

Sunday through Monday: VFR.

Tuesday: VFR, becoming MVFR in the afternoon with a chance of
rain.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-advisory conditions prevail through Monday. There may be a
period of marginal small craft conditions with gusts close to 25 kt
on the ocean during Saturday afternoon into evening. Next chance of
advisory conditions will be on Tuesday with low pressure
approaching, but a better chance will arrive Tuesday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic impacts expected through the middle of next
week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC
NEAR TERM...JC/JP
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MET/DW
MARINE...JC
HYDROLOGY...JC