360
FXUS61 KOKX 131124
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
624 AM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of weak fronts/surface troughs pass across the region
today. High pressure builds over the area Friday into Saturday
before moving offshore Saturday night. A frontal system approaches
Saturday night and moves through the region Sunday. High pressure
builds to the west Monday into Tuesday and may settle nearby on
Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The axis of an upper trough will continue to translate across the
northeast today and then begin sliding off the New England coast
tonight. A series of surface troughs will move across the area, one
this morning and then another potentially this evening. Dry
conditions are forecast through tonight. However, the second surface
trough may be able to generate a few sprinkles across eastern Long
Island/southeast CT.

The passage of the morning surface trough will allow winds to shift
to the NW. Wind speeds will also increase and become gusty during
the day, with gusts 25-30 mph likely. A few gusts up to 35 mph
possible near the coast cannot be ruled out this afternoon. There
should be less cloud cover compared to the last few days, but still
a chance for periods of mostly cloudy skies inland and eastern Long
island in the afternoon. Highs will remain a few degrees below
normal in the upper 40s inland and lower 50s close to the coast.

Gusty winds to start this evening will gradually diminish through
the night as high pressure begins to build closer to the region.
Clouds will also clear through the night allowing temperatures to
fall into the lower 30s inland to the middle 30s closer to the
coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A quick moving trough/front will pass across the area early
Thursday. The only change to sensible weather will be from a wind
shift to the NW. Gusts should still range between 25 and 30 mph
although a few places could reach 35 mph at times in the afternoon,
especially near the coast. Skies will likely be partly cloudy
although they could briefly go mostly cloudy at times as there are
still pieces of energy moving through aloft around the upper trough.
Temperatures should be similar to Wednesday ranging from the upper
40s to lower 50s.

The large upper trough that has been over the northeast in recent
days will begin to slide off the New England coast through Thursday
night into Friday. The system will then meander just off the
northeast coast and the Canadian Maritimes through Friday night as
ridging builds towards the area. This will allow the surface high to
move closer to the region. It will remain breezy on Friday, but
gusts should be much weaker compared to earlier in the week. Highs
will should again range from the upper 40s to lower 50s. The
coldest night to end the week looks to be Friday night as winds
drop off along with mostly clear skies. Lows based on the NBM
range from the upper 20s inland and lower 30s near the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key points:

* A frontal system approaches Saturday night and moves across the
  region Sunday. The system brings the next period of rain, mainly
  Saturday night into Sunday morning.

* Windy conditions are expected behind the departing front Sunday
  night into Monday, but winds probably remain below advisory
  thresholds.

* Temperatures will be a few degrees below seasonal normals during
  the period except for Sunday where temperatures may briefly
  rebound into the upper 50s to low 60s at the coast.

A closed low and upper trough diving south out of southern Canada
will send a warm front towards the Saturday night with its trailing
cold front passage on Sunday. Guidance is starting to come into
better agreement on the timing of the system, but still differ when
the main cold front will sweep across the region. The highest
probability for rain will occur Saturday night into Sunday morning,
mainly due to warm advection as the the warm front lifts towards the
area. The cold front probably passes east of the area in the
afternoon, but may not have much precip with it as it passes. The
cold front passage will bring in another period of windy conditions,
peaking Sunday night into Monday, as low pressure deepens to our
north across SE Canada/Maritimes and high pressure builds to our
west.

Winds should start diminishing by Tuesday as the high pressure moves
closer to the area. Mean upper troughing will persist aloft through
mid week. A shortwave and associated wave of low pressure is
currently modeled to pass well to our south Tuesday into Wednesday
based on the latest model consensus. NBM indicates just a slight
chance late Tuesday/Tuesday evening for the southern half of the
area. This seems reasonable as the majority of the guidance keeps
the system south, but would not be surprised to see some
fluctuations with this in subsequent forecasts given that this is
about six days out.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A series of weak fronts/surface troughs pass across the region
today. High pressure starts to build in on Friday.

VFR.

W/NW flow today, increasing to around 15-20kt with G25-30kt.
Gusts lower and may become occasional again tonight.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Start and end time of gusts may be off an hour or two.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Friday: VFR. WNW-NW winds 10-15G15-25kt.

Saturday: VFR, sub VFR developing at night in RA.

Sunday: MVFR or lower in rain, improvement to VFR in the
afternoon. W winds 10-15 G20-25kt late morning/afternoon.

Monday: VFR. W-WNW winds 15-20G25-30kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA conditions will continue through early this evening. Winds
should start subsiding below 25 kt on the non-ocean waters
tonight, but are likely to remain 25-30 kt on the ocean through
Friday. Ocean seas gradually subside through Friday, but will
remain above 5 ft through much of tonight.

A period of sub-SCA conditions are expected on Saturday. SCA conditions
then return late Saturday into Sunday with the next frontal system.
Gales are possible on the waters Sunday afternoon behind the
passage of a cold front, with this threat continuing into Monday
with a tight pressure gradient. Will include this potential in
the HWO.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through early next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for ANZ331-332-340-
     345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ335-
     338.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Friday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...JC/DS
HYDROLOGY...JC/DS