054
FXUS61 KOKX 081831
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
231 PM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds tonight into Thursday, with the high settling
over the region Thursday night into the start of the weekend. Low
pressure will deepen and track north towards the region on Sunday.
The low will then meander south of the region on Monday, before
heading out to sea by the middle of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Clear skies with more of an autumn feel during the period. A much
drier and cooler Canadian air mass will dominate with a stiff breeze
out of the N continuing into the day on Thursday. The winds diminish
to some degree tonight, but the winds will stay up enough in most
places to prevent maximum radiational cooling, with most places not
decoupling. Thus temperatures tonight fall back primarily into the
40s, with only a few upper 30s in the more sheltered locations to
the far NW where a little patchy frost cold form just before
sunrise.

For Thursday sunny skies prevail with high pressure continuing to
build. As the high gets closer later in the afternoon the winds
should start to diminish some, with a more noticeable relaxing of
the winds towards early evening. Temperatures will actually be below
normal with highs struggling to get out of the upper 50s, otherwise
high temperatures primarily on either side of 60. Dew point readings
will be all the way down into the 30s, so a much drier fall air
mass.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Continuing with a freeze watch for northern most zones for late
Thursday night / early Friday morning. With the pressure gradient
relaxing further, look for ideal radiational cooling conditions to
develop quickly across the interior. The winds may take a bit longer
to completely diminish further east, thus decoupling may take a bit
longer across eastern sections. Thus, widespread frost and a freeze
is looking most likely across interior portions of the lower Hudson
Valley and far interior NE NJ for W. Passaic. With perhaps the wind
taking a little longer to shut off have areas of frost for the
interior So. CT zones. Thus, no changes attm for the Freeze Watch.
In subsequent updates frost advisories could very well be added if
certainty increases.

On Friday look for a crisp and cool autumn day with abundant
sunshine. With strong large scale / synoptic sinking motion as high
pressure will be settled directly on top of the region, look for
clear skies. After the coolest start to a day thus far this fall,
look for temperatures by the afternoon to reach primarily the lower
half of the 60s, with perhaps a few middle 60s across portions of NE
NJ.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The main focus is on the storm sys for Sun into the first part of
next week.

The modeling continues to suggest low pres will deepen off the East
Coast and track towards the area on Sun. At the same time, high pres
will be building over ern Canada.

Although there will be some moderate to locally hvy rains with the
sys, the main hazard attm appears to be the wind threat along with
the associated cstl impacts. The ensembles and blended approach
yields increasing confidence in a high wind event, with the
operational GFS continuing to show 50+kt bl winds in the nrn portion
of the sys. Ultimately, the exact track and intensity of the low
will determine if this zone of strongest winds gets into the cwa,
but confidence is high enough to introduce the stronger 06Z CONSALL
winds over the NBM. Peak gusts around 60 mph possible in this zone
of highest winds.

Most likely area for the highest winds is across LI.

Although peak winds look to be late Sun attm, it should be a long
duration wind event based on the latest progs with strong winds thru
Mon until the high to the N weakens and the low tracks out to sea.

Depending on how fast the low exits, rain chances will decrease
significantly Tue and Wed. Could end up being completely dry both
days with a slight warming trend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure gradually builds in from the northwest through
Thursday.

VFR.

NNW winds at 10-15 kt with gusts G20-25kt will gradually become
more northerly overnight. Expect gusts to drop off at most
locations this evening into the overnight, except for KJFK and
KLGA. Even there, wind gusts may become more occasional. N wind
gusts 15-20kt Thursday morning are expected to drop off in the
afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

End time of gusts may be off by a couple of hours tonight for
KEWR and KTEB, and there is a chance that gusts are only
occasional at most overnight for KLGA and KJFK.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday: VFR. N gusts around 20 kt, mainly in the morning.

Friday-Saturday: VFR.

Sunday-Monday: MVFR or lower likely in rain. NE gusts 25-35kt,
highest at the coast. Winds could be stronger depending on the
track and strength of a coastal low.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Small craft advisories remain in effect for all waters, although for
a time tonight, mainly during the evening winds may relax just below
criteria for some of the non-ocean zones. Otherwise, look for small
craft conditions to end for the non-ocean zones during Thursday
morning, with the ocean zones likely falling below criteria at some
point Thursday afternoon with a relaxing pressure gradient resulting
in gradually diminishing winds. The ocean seas should come down a
bit more Thursday night, and towards Friday afternoon ocean seas
should come all the way down to 1 to 2 ft.

As a coastal storm slowly pushes north up the coast Gale to Storm
force winds will develop on Sun, lasting thru Mon. Seas may build to
around 20 ft on the ocean. Winds and seas will gradually begin to
subside on Tue.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Although up to 2 inches of rain is possible Sun and Mon, no
significant hydrologic impacts are expected attm.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Total water levels are only expected to approach, and possibly just
meet minor coastal flood benchmarks Thursday morning for the Nassau
County south shore bays, and early Thursday afternoon for the So.
Fairfield. Impacts are expected to be minimal.

The potential remains for widespread moderate flooding and beach
erosion Sunday/Monday, via the combo of high astronomical tides and
surge generated by strong NE flow. Breaking waves around 10 ft
possible based on 20+ ft seas offshore. Impacts will be dependent on
the exact track and intensity of a deep low tracking towards the
region.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning
     for CTZ005>008.
NY...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning
     for NYZ067>070.
NJ...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning
     for NJZ002.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ331-335-
     338-340.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ332-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/JE
NEAR TERM...JE
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JMC/JE
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...