912
FXUS61 KOKX 291930
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
330 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front shifts offshore this evening. High pressure then
follows for the weekend and remains in control through the middle of
next week. A frontal system then approaches to end the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Quick update made to the forecast to account for training storm
cells over portions of SE CT where a flood advisory has been
issued. Fortunately, the current cells are not traveling
directly over where an inch to 1.5 inches of rain fell earlier
today. Can`t completely rule out a warning, but advisories will
probably be sufficient. Up to an additional 1.5 inches of
rainfall may occur over parts of SE CT.

A cold front will continue to slowly move across the forecast
area during the rest of the afternoon into this evening. SBCAPES
of mostly 500-1500 J/kg will be present over CT and LI, and
this is where the greatest chances of showers and thunderstorms
will be until the cold front clears the area early this evening.
A weakly veering flow aloft with bulk shear under 30kt should
keep thunderstorms below severe thresholds but may get close at
times this afternoon. NBM looked good for overnight low
temperatures with 50s in most places and mid to upper 40s well
NW of the city.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A large area of high pressure expands from the upper Mississippi
Valley to the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Mainly clear skies and low
humidity will be accompanied by high temperatures around 5 degrees
below normal on Saturday and a little warmer on Sunday. NBM was
followed for daytime highs, with lows weighted toward a MAV/MET MOS
blend across the cooler Pine Barrens region of LI and well inland to
better capture radiational cooling.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Points:

* High pressure will remain over the region Monday through
  Wednesday, with dry and cool conditions. Temperatures will be more
  like mid-September.

* Chance for precipitation returns on Thursday and Friday as an
  upper level trough and associated cold front approach and move
  into the region.

With high pressure remaining entrenched over the region Monday
through Wednesday dry and cool weather is expected. The high moves
off the New England and Mid Atlantic coast Wednesday night into
Thursday as a cold front slowly approaches, with the associated weak
low tracking slowly through the Great Lakes region, and an inverted
trough along the eastern seaboard.
Timing of the front is a little delayed and moves slowly across the
region into Friday, as a shortwave rotates into the longwave trough
and become closed. The upper low and surface cold front may
lingering into the beginning of next weekend as an amplified ridge
remains across the Western Atlantic.

Only changes to the NBM was for cooler overnight lows Monday night
through Wednesday night, especially across the normally cooler
locations of the interior, and the Pine Barrens of eastern Long
Island, with nearly clear skies and light winds each night. For the
lows used a blend of the deterministic and 25th percentile, which
gives lows closer to MOS guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front passes across the terminals this afternoon and evening.
High pressure then builds towards the terminals tonight into
Saturday.

Mainly VFR. Showers and/or thunderstorms remain possible this
into early this evening, mainly at KGON, but have left VCSH in
at KISP and KDBR for the next few hours. Cannot rule out an
isolated shower elsewhere, but chances/coverage remain too low
to include in the TAF.

Winds will be S-SW at KJFK, Long Island and southern CT terminals
into the afternoon. Winds elsewhere will gradually shift to the W-NW
this afternoon, especially towards evening as the cold front passes.
Wind speeds will be around 10-13 kt. A gust up to 20 kt is also
possible this afternoon. NW winds are expected tonight at all
terminals and will remain NW into Saturday, generally 10 kt or
less.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Isolated shower possible through 22z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday Afternoon through Wednesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Gusts around 20kt still possible until a few hours after
midnight with the beginnings of cold air advection. Winds and
waves otherwise subside overnight and remain below advisory
thresholds through the weekend.

High pressure will remain across the forecast waters Monday through
Wednesday. Conditions will generally remain below SCA levels during
this time. However, there is a chance that ocean seas will be
marginally 5 feet east of Fire Island Inlet Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning with a 4 foot east to southeast swell.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Additional flood advisories for minor flooding are possible
over SE CT through early evening. Flash flood guidance will
probably not be met, so not anticipating any warnings to be
issued, but can`t be completely ruled out.

There are otherwise no hydrologic concerns through the end of
next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A moderate risk of rip currents continues with an incoming wind wave
of 3-4 ft at 5-6 seconds. However, diminishing waves and winds will
likely result in a decreasing threat into this evening, especially
across NYC, southern Nassau County, and Southwestern Suffolk beaches.

There will be a low risk at the ocean beaches Saturday and Sunday
with 1-2 ft waves at 5-7 seconds.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...