833
FXUS61 KOKX 011810
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
210 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A large area of high pressure will remain over the region
through at least Tuesday. The high will then move offshore
Wednesday giving way to an approaching front on Thursday. The
frontal system will impact the area Thursday night into
Saturday. High pressure builds in from the west Sunday into
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Biggest challenge late this afternoon and this evening will be
the cloud cover forecast. Clouds have been pretty persistent so
far today, mainly across the eastern sections of the CWA. This
mainly due to an closed upper low near the region. Latest
satellite imagary is showing clearing to the south and west.
Forecast guidance is showing skies clearning after sunset, so
will continue this trend in the forecast. Winds tonight will
start off fairly light from the east, and graduall become a bit
more northerly towards daybreak. Some of the forecast guidance
is showing the potential for some stratus to develop overnight.
This will need to be monitored this evening. Otherwise, lows
tonight will be in the 50s and lower 50s. Depending on cloud
cover, can not rule out a few upper 40s at the usual cooler
spots.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Little change in the short term as the weak upper low lifts
northward in response to a trough digging south and east across
central Canada. High pressure across the area Tuesday will begin
to weaken and then moves offshore on Wednesday. The front
continues to slide further eastward Wednesday night into
Thursday, allowing a frontal system to approach from the Great
Lakes.

Expect dry conditions with temperatures at or slightly below normal
for this time of year. Highs each day in the middle 70s to lower
80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Our next chance for rainfall will be with a frontal system near
week`s end. Cloud cover will begin to increase Thursday into
Thursday night. At the same close a closed upper-low/trough will
dig into the Great Lakes, leading to falling heights aloft over
the region.

A cold front will approach and pass the area Thursday night into
Friday night. Rain looks likely with this front given available
guidance. However, timing of FROPA is still still in disagreement
among model guidance.

Some guidance bring a secondary front through on Saturday (such as
the GFS) building in high pressure on Sunday. Others bring the first
front all the way through and build high pressure in on Saturday.
Have gone with likely to chance POPs Thu night into Fri followed by
only slight chance POPs on Saturday given low confidence.

When high pressure builds back in, expect dry conditions to return
with more sunshine to finish out the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure remains over the region through the TAF period.

NE-E winds becoming more E-ESE 10-15G20kt this afternoon. Winds
subside to less than 10kt this evening, backing to the NE. Winds
increase on Tuesday to around 10kt, becoming SE in the afternoon.

There is a low chance of low stratus development late tonight into
early Tuesday morning, mainly in the 08-14Z timeframe. Opted not to
include in the TAFs at this time as confidence remains low.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts may be only occasional. Timing of shift to E-ESE may be
off by 1-2 hours.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday through Wednesday: VFR.

Thursday: VFR during the day with S gusts 20-25kt in the afternoon.
SHRA and possible MVFR at night.

Friday: SHRA/MVFR possible mainly in the morning. S gusts 20-25kt.

Saturday: Mainly VFR. Low chance of MVFR/shra.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
We are generally expecting winds and seas to remain below SCA levels
as high pressure remains over the region through Thursday. However,
an area of low pressure passing well south and east tonight and
Tuesday will result in a building easterly swell into the waters
with a chance of 5 ft seas on the ocean Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Guidance however continues to stay just below 5 ft during this time
frame.

Seas look to remain below SCA levels Thursday night into Friday
night. Once the front finally pushes through, seas on the ocean may
climb to 5 feet Saturday night. Sub-SCA seas follow on Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A low rip current risk remains through this evening at ocean
beaches. The risk becomes moderate Tuesday and Wednesday as ESE
swells build to 3-4 ft at 8-9 seconds.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/BR
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...BR
AVIATION...
MARINE...BC/BR
HYDROLOGY...BC/BR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...