284
FXUS61 KOKX 040555
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
155 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the region through early next
week. A cold front will then approach Tuesday night into
Wednesday, then move across the area late Wednesday into
Wednesday night. Strong high pressure will follow from the west
Thursday through next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Deep-layered ridging through the period with high pressure providing
for a mostly clear sky through the period. High temperatures will be
above normal this afternoon. NBM with minor local adjustments looked
good for high temps considering 16-17C at 900mb. Highs mostly in the
upper 70s to lower 80s, but short of any records which run about 5
degrees warmer than forecast highs. Used a blend of MAV/MET MOS for
low temperatures across the areas that typically see the strongest
radiational cooling.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Much of the same as a high pressure ridge holds strong, but breaking
down a little on Monday. Dry with little in the way of cloud cover
through the entire period, although there could be an increase of
clouds late Monday night as well as patchy fog. High temperatures
remain above normal for both Sunday and Monday. NBM with minor
adjustments was used again for highs, and leaned towards MAV/MET MOS
for areas of stronger radiational cooling.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NBM was followed no changes.

Key Points:

* High pressure remains in place Tuesday with dry conditions.

* A cold front approaches Tuesday night and early Wednesday, moving
  across the area late Wednesday into Wednesday night. Rain showers
  will be likely with the passage of the cold front.

* High pressure returns Thursday and remains over the area into
  next weekend.

* The warmest day of the long term will be Tuesday with highs in the
  middle and upper 70s to lower 80s. This will be a good 5-10
  degrees above normal. Temperatures will be closer to normal or
  below normal for the remainder of the long term. Highs on Wednesday
  will be in the middle and upper 60s to lower 70s. Thursday will be
  the coolest day of the week, with highs in the upper 50s and lower
  60s. Temperatures then gradually warm back into the middle and
  upper 60s and lower 70s for Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR as high pressure remains over the area.

Light SW-W flow very early this morning should become WNW after
daybreak. S-SW sea breezes close to 10 kt should develop along the
CT coast during late morning, then at KJFK/KISP by 18Z and the rest
of the NYC metros in the late day hours. Winds become light and
variable once again after sunset, taking on more of a W or NW
direction early Sunday morning.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled AMD expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday night through Tuesday: VFR.

Tuesday night and Wednesday: MVFR with showers likely. NW winds G15-
20kt on Wed, becoming N late in the afternoon.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure over the waters through Monday night will provide
for a weak pressure gradient and help keep conditions below
advisory criteria. Winds pick up a little on Tuesday, but winds
and waves will remain below SCA levels. The next chance of SCA
conditions return Wednesday and/or Thursday with the passage of
a cold front.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic issues expected through early next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/JC
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JC