249
FXUS61 KOKX 071920
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
320 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure persists over the area, with a cold front
expected to move through on Sunday, followed by a series of
weaker cold fronts Monday and Tuesday. High pressure then builds
in for the middle of next week. A cold front may approach for
late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A drier air mass will advect over the area through tonight in
the wake of an earlier cold front. A few showers may linger into
the early evening in response to a short wave rotating around
the base of a broader trough, but given the shallow and diurnal
nature of the showers, expect activity to largely wane after
sunset. Overnight temperatures will be cooler than the previous
night with the change in air mass, but close to climatological
normals.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Weak ridging aloft and broad westerly flow will keep drier
conditions across the area Saturday, with seasonable highs
generally in the mid 70s to near 80. Humidity levels will remain
subjectively low as dew points lower into the low to mid 50s.

Overnight, another wave of low pressure approaches, with deep
layer flow becoming more oriented from the south to southwest,
allowing for an increase in moisture. The subsequent increase
in cloud cover overnight will once again keep low temperatures a
few degrees higher than Friday night, while rain chances may
increase from the northwest by Sunday morning.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
**Key Points**

*Scattered shower threat with a frontal passage on Sunday, followed
by primarily dry and seasonably warm conditions for early to mid
week.

*Warming trend possible for late week.

Good model agreement in mean troughing through the early week period
with a portion of a large closed upper low over Quebec on Sunday,
splitting into the NE US Monday/Tuesday, before sliding offshore
midweek.

At the surface, models in good agreement with a cold front
approaching Sun afternoon and crossing Sun aft/eve ahead of the
approaching upper low. Strong upper mid level shortwave and upper
level jet lift just, combined with sufficient moisture pooling ahead
of front, support scattered showers translating across the region
Sunday morning into afternoon. Early approach of front and mid-level
capping not supportive for tstms, but a few downpours possible in
the late morn/early aft with weak instability below mixed phases
region.

Subsequent weaker cold frontal passages likely Monday and Tuesday
advecting in a slightly drier/cooler Canadian airmass as weakening
closed low moves overhead. This will bring potential for iso aft
shower activity off higher terrain and/or along sea breeze
boundaries.

Brief shortwave ridging on Wednesday appears to give way to a mean
zonal upper flow for late week. Generally dry conditions for mid
week as high pressure builds in from the west and then offshore.

Model spread increases with inherent forecast uncertainty for the
Day 5-7 time period. There is potential for a late week frontal
passage/s depending on shortwave timing in the upper flow.

As for temps, have gone with NBM/NBM 50th percentile blend through
the period based on recent performance and synoptic regime. Temps
within a degree or two of seasonable through early to mid week, then
potential for temps to warm a few to several degrees above
seasonable mid to late week.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Weak high pressure builds in slowly to the southwest through
Saturday afternoon. A weak surface trough remains inland this
afternoon.

VFR. There is a low chance of a few showers at KSWF through this
afternoon, with conditions remaining VFR.

Winds W/SW this afternoon, with local sea breezes. Winds become more
W/NW this evening, and remain through tonight, less than 10 kt.
Winds increase Saturday morning with gusts developing.

  NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts may be more occasional this afternoon.


OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday afternoon-Sunday. VFR, MVFR possible with a chance of
showers late Saturday night through Sunday. Sunday, W winds G20-
25kt.

Monday-Tuesday: VFR. A slight chance of showers late Tuesday.
Monday, W winds G20-25kt.

Wednesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions are expected to remain below SCA levels through
Saturday. Potential for marginal nearshore SCA gusts on Sunday
aft and Monday aft, with ocean seas remaining at 3 to 4 ft in SW
flow. Latest model guidance has trended toward a weak pressure
regime for mid to late next week, indicating a return to sub-SCA
conds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected into early next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Coastal flood statements remain in effect for this evening`s
high tide cycle. These are for southern Nassau and the western
LI Sound, as high astronomical tides and a southerly wind
component this afternoon may lead to some isolated minor
benchmarks being reached. Steven`s median guidance was near or
just over observed values for last night`s high tide for points
in these areas, and so weighted this more heavily in the
forecast. Should newer guidance increase values, advisories may
be needed especially across the western LI Sound. Some question
for Saturday`s afternoon high tide cycle as well, as some
locations may again just touch minor benchmarks.

For the Atlantic ocean beaches a moderate to locally high rip
current risk continues into this evening. Moderate rip risk expected
for Saturday with a mix of residual 3 ft@7 sec swells and 2-3 ft SW
wind waves. Moderate rips risk likely once again on Sunday with
residual 1 to 2 ft S swells and building 2 to 3 ft SW wind waves.
This is supported by the latest RCMOS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MD/NV
NEAR TERM...MD
SHORT TERM...MD
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MD/NV
HYDROLOGY...MD/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...