963
FXUS61 KOKX 171140
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
740 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Lowered forecast rainfall amounts and adjusted precip
probabilities down this morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Periods of showers will continue through early this
morning, especially close to the coast. Isolated-scattered
shower/storm possible PM, mainly NW of NYC metro.

2) There is a high rip current risk at ocean beaches through
this evening.

3) Mainly dry Tuesday into Wednesday with the next chance of
showers on Thursday, potentially continuing into the upcoming
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
A weak wave of low pressure along a warm front just to the south
will continue to bring periods of showers, mainly to the coast
this morning. Have adjusted forecast rain amounts down and
lowered precip probabilities. This is due to recent radar
trends as well the last several runs of the HRRR and the new 06z
NAM3km. Have also removed mention of thunder across Long Island.
Instability has remained minimal. While it may start increasing
this morning, any lightning strikes should remain offshore if
a thunderstorm were to develop. An isolated downpour cannot be
ruled out near the coast, but otherwise the showers will be
light to moderate.


The wave of low pressure begins to shift east this afternoon
with the warm front remaining nearby. A trailing weak cold
front/surface trough swings moves in from the NW this afternoon.
There should be enough lingering moisture and increased
instability to support isolated-scattered showers and
thunderstorms north and west of the NYC metro. Some of this
activity could spill SE this evening, but dissipate shortly
after sunset with loss of daytime heating. Mainly dry conditions
should prevail east of the NYC metro this afternoon and
evening.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
High rip current risk for ocean beaches through this evening
due to 3-5 ft waves and a S-SE swell. However, the risk may
lower to moderate for Nassau and NYC beaches this afternoon as
seas begin subsiding.

For Tuesday, the rip current risk is moderate although it could
end up becoming low as S-SE swells subside and winds remain
light.


.KEY MESSAGE 3...
High pressure will build over the area Monday night through
the middle of the week. It should remain dry with seasonably
warm temperatures for both Tuesday and Wednesday. The only
exception is a low probability for a passing shower Tuesday
afternoon across New London County Connecticut. Some weak lift
and residual moisture may support an few brief showers Tuesday
afternoon.

A broad upper trough will push towards the northeast Wednesday
night into Thursday. Low pressure over southeast Canada will
drag a cold front across the area on Thursday. The front will be
entering the area late Wednesday night, but forcing is weak and
moisture is limited. There is a signal in the last few runs of
the modeling for a jet streak to pass to our north on Thursday
with some shortwave energy rounding the base of the upper trough
to our west. This could be enough to develop showers and
possibly a thunderstorm on Thursday as the front slowly moves
through the area. The NBM has maintained chance PoPs on Thursday
and this seems reasonable as there is still a decent amount of
ensemble spread. There is a plausible scenario where any showers
on Thursday remain isolated as dynamics aloft remain weak.

The front is likely to stall to the south on Friday and may
remain there into at least the first half of the upcoming
weekend. Some of the uncertainty with shortwave energy on
Thursday may persist Friday into the weekend as the the upper
trough lingers over the east. A few waves of low pressure may
develop on the front to the south in response to the troughing.
Chances for showers, possibly a thunderstorm, exist late Friday
into the weekend. Friday through the weekend will not be a
complete washout, but there may be a period where showers are
more likely than others. This will become better resolved over
the next few days.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A frontal system impacts the area terminals today.

Initially, IFR/MVFR conditions along with light rain or
drizzle at most if not all the terminals. The light rain and
drizzle should gradually taper off across NYC and points west
this morning with the IFR/MVFR conditions continuing through at
least 17-19z. For the NYC terminals and points west, an
improvement back to VFR is expected during the early afternoon
(17-19z or so), however further east, conditions improve to VFR
late in the TAF period or remain MVFR through the remainder of
the TAF period. Showers and/or drizzle may remain over the
eastern terminals for much of the day.

A second round of showers will be possible this afternoon, with
a low chance of an isolated thunderstorm. Best chances will be
at KSWF, with lower confidence of occurrence closer to NYC.
Because of this, will only mention TSRA at KSWF with a PROB30
and leave out of the TAF at the NYC terminals.

Another chance of IFR/MVFR cigs will be possible tonight, with
the better chances remaining east of NYC.

Winds start off from the south but will become light and variable
as low pressure passes nearby. Once the low moves east, winds
will become more westerly and northerly. Winds become light and
variable once again tonight.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Low confidence wind direction forecast today.

Timing of categorical changes could be a few hours off from TAF.

Timing of showers could be a few hours off from TAF.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR. A slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm
at night with MVFR possible.

Thursday: MVFR or lower at times. Chances of showers and
thunderstorms.

Friday: Mainly VFR. A slight chance of showers with MVFR
possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA winds and seas will continue on the ocean waters into this
afternoon. Winds will weaken through the morning, but lingering
5-6 ft seas are anticipated, especially east of Fire Island
Inlet into the afternoon. Conditions will then remain below SCA
levels this evening through Friday as a relatively weak pressure
gradient remains in place.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ350-
     353.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DS
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...DS