808
FXUS61 KOKX 282323
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
623 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure gradually builds towards the area into tonight and
then over the area on Saturday. A frontal system moves across the
region Sunday into Sunday night. High pressure briefly builds
on Monday before giving way to developing low pressure over the
southern states. A secondary coastal low forms along the Mid
Atlantic coast Tuesday, passing just south and east of Long
Island Tuesday night. High pressure largely prevails for the
second half of the week with the exception of a cold frontal
passage on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Gusty W winds will continue through this evening as the
Tri-State area remains sandwiched between low pressure over
southeast Canada and high pressure to the southwest. Mixing
heights 5-7kft and subsidence/downward momentum will allow winds
at the top of the mixed layer to down to the surface. Model
soundings indicate winds around 40 kt at the top of the mixed
layer this afternoon. Sustained winds 15-25 mph with gusts 30-40
mph are expected for the rest of the afternoon/early evening.
An isolated gust up to 45 mph cannot be ruled out.

Loss of daytime heating should slow the mixing and gradually
allow gusts to come down through the evening. However, there
will still be enough of a pressure gradient to support winds
from dropping off completely overnight. A few gusts 20-25 mph
remain possible through early Saturday morning.

The upper trough will continue moving across the northeast through
tonight. Some weak disturbances may support a few flurries or a
brief snow shower well north and west of the NYC metro this
afternoon. This activity should diminish after sunset.

Otherwise, high pressure will continue building closer to the area.
A few clouds are possible overnight, but mostly clear conditions
expected overall with lows falling into the upper 20s inland and
lower 30s near the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A progressive shortwave ridge slides over the northeast on
Saturday. High pressure settles over the region allowing for
much weaker winds compared to the last few days. Most of the
day will be clear until late when some high clouds may start
streaming in from the west ahead of the next shortwave/frontal
system over the upper midwest. Highs on Saturday will continue
below normal in the lower 40s.

High pressure moves offshore Saturday night as the aforementioned
frontal system approaches. Clouds will continue increasing as the
associated warm front draws closer. Any precip will remain off to
the west through sunrise Sunday. Lows will range from the upper
20s inland to lower to middle 30s elsewhere.

The parent low pressure passes well to the north on Sunday. Some
precip may start moving in across the Lower Hudson Valley into NE NJ
Sunday morning. Thermal profiles would initially support some wet
snow or a mixture of wet snow and rain, but most of the guidance
keeps conditions dry to start the day. Temperatures quickly
rise with increasing warm advection and strengthening S-SE
flow. Precip probabilities increase mid to late morning with a
band of rain overspreading the area Sunday afternoon through the
early evening. Rain amounts generally look light, average from
two to three tenths. Temperatures by the afternoon may range
from the 40s inland and low 50s at the coast. Winds may also
become gusty near the coast, generally 25-30 mph at times in the
afternoon. The rain quickly moves east of the area Sunday
evening with dry conditions returning overnight, especially
towards midnight. The brief warmup ahead of the systems cold
front ends Sunday night as a reinforcing shot of colder air
advects in the area by day break Monday. Temperatures based on
the latest model consensus should fall into the lower to middle
30s by sunrise.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Points:

* Low pressure may bring the first bout of winter weather to the
  area Tuesday into Tuesday night. There remains uncertainty in the
  low track, which will be critical in determining precipitation
  type. At this time, it looks like mainly rain at the coast with
  rain/snow line somewhere over the interior.

* Below normal temperatures through next Friday.

NBM closely followed during this timeframe.

The focus for this forecast period will remain on a potential
coastal low bringing wintry weather to the region Tuesday into
Tuesday night. Global models have trended farther NW with the low
track the last 24h, with many of the 12Z operationals just inside
the 40N...70W benchmark. The EPS/GEFS mean are farther SE, deeper,
and more clustered around the mean, but there are also more members
to the NW of the mean than recent days. While the Pac energy
associated with this southern branch storm system is about to come
onshore western Canada, there will likely be some run to run changes
that are often critical to precipitation type across the area. In
addition, with no blocking over the north Atlantic, high pressure
quickly lifts out of the Northeast as the storm approaches, allowing
for more of a marine influence and erosion of the cold air. This is
why it is too difficult this far out to mention snowfall totals.
What does appear to be more certain though is for a strong coastal
low to impact the region.

The forecast is more reflective of a consenus forecast. Such a track
favors a mainly rain event at the coast, with a rain/snow line
working inland. Inland locations have the best chance of seeing
winter weather impacts at this time. NBM probabilities for greater
than inch of snowfall range from 10-25 percent at the coast and 40-
70 percent inland. For an advisory level snow, these probabilities
are 0-10 percent and 20-40 percent, respectively.

High pressure will primarily in control for the second half of the
week, minus a cold frontal passage on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure to the west will gradually build from the west
late tonight through Saturday, dominating through the TAF
period.  VFR.

West winds should gradually diminish tonight to 15-20G20-25kt
this evening and also veer more toward 290-300 true late
tonight. An occasional gust to 30kts still possible through
about 03Z.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Isolated G25-30kt possible before 03Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Saturday afternoon: VFR.

Sunday: Rain with MVFR cond in the afternoon/evening. S winds G20-
25kt, highest near the coast.

Monday: VFR.

Tuesday: MVFR expected in the morning, IFR possible in the
afternoon/evening. Precip type mainly snow at KSWF. Rain and/or snow
at the onset at the other terminals, changing to rain in the
morning.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Gales continue on the waters through this evening. Winds
start weakening after 7-10pm with SCA winds continuing on the
NY Harbor and Western Sound. Elsewhere, gales are expected
through 1am, although its possible winds subside a few hours
sooner than currently anticipated. SCA conditions continue into
Saturday morning with the ocean remaining in SCA levels due to
elevated seas into the afternoon. Winds and seas will then
remain below SCA levels late Saturday into Saturday night. S-SE
winds increase on Sunday into Sunday night with a frontal system
impacting the waters.

SCA conditions linger into Monday morning on the ocean waters as
high pressure builds in from the west. Confidence is increasing on
a coastal low bringing a return to SCA conditions Tuesday into
the first half of Wednesday. There is a low chance of a gale at
this time.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns expected through next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Saturday for ANZ331-332-340-345-
     350-353-355.
     Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ335-338.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DS/DW
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...DBR
MARINE...DS/DW
HYDROLOGY...DS/DW