651
FXUS61 KOKX 212037
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
437 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Small Craft Advisory extended on ocean waters E of Fire Island
Inlet until 8 pm this evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Unsettled conditions persist this weekend, with additional
chances for showers and thunderstorms at times.

2) Drying out early next week, with temperatures remaining slightly
below normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Broad troughing remains across Great Lakes and Northeast, with
a nearly stalled boundary and area of low pressure meandering
just offshore.

The center of the nearby low pressure is very evident on
GOES-19 visible satellite imagery this afternoon, spinning about
90 mi SSE of Montauk in the western Atlantic. Cloud canopy is
swirling around it, with overcast skies persisting across Long
Island and much of S CT today, but much brighter skies from NYC
on north and west. The center should continue meandering slowly
eastward, bringing an end to and remaining light rain or
drizzle by early this evening, before another wave approaches
from the southwest on Saturday.

A few morning showers could clip some coastal locations, before a
lull then develops most of Saturday. Broad forcing for ascent
from the trough, along with the shortwave energy moving through
should help to instigate additional showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms by late Saturday evening. Instability looks
relatively limited, but moisture will be abundant, with PWATs
along the coast increasing toward 2 inches. WPC has maintained a
marginal risk of excessive rainfall across the entire local
area, and given the recent rains, it won`t take much to renew
any nuisance flooding in the urbanized and poor drainage areas.
The threat for flash flooding will likely be contingent on
training of heavier cells, which is a possibility overnight into
Sunday morning. Peak hourly rainfall rates could approach an
inch to an inch and a half, with localized totals up to a few
inches. Coverage and severity of this activity appears lower
in general than Thursday`s event however, and opted not to
hoist a Flood Watch at this point.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Cyclonic flow with afternoon stratocu likely persists through
early next week as the trough axis remains across the Northeast.
The trough gradually exits into midweek as the flow aloft
transitions to more quasi zonal.

Absent any isolated diurnal showers, conditions largely remain
dry as high pressure builds in and winds become westerly.
Temperatures are forecast to remain slightly below normal, with
daytime highs in the 70s to around 80.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Low pressure continues to slowly move away from the terminals
heading into this evening.

VFR for NYC and terminals north and west. A gradual improvement
back to VFR for eastern terminals into a portion of this
afternoon. MVFR cigs return shortly after the Wednesday morning
push as another frontal system approaches.

N to NE winds at 10kt or less diminish tonight. SE winds under
10kt for Wednesday.


     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Occasional gusts 15-19kt possible through 23-00z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Saturday PM: Chance of showers in the afternoon, becoming more
likely at night.. MVFR to IFR at times. Possible thunderstorms
towards evening and overnight.

Sunday: A chance of showers, especially north of the city
terminals. Possible thunderstorms. Chance of MVFR or lower at
times.

Monday and Tuesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory remains on the ocean waters west of Fire
Island Inlet until 8pm with seas near or just above 5 ft and a
few gusts around 25 kt. Conditions gradually improve into this
evening.

Thereafter, expect sub-SCA conditions to persist through early
next week as a weak pressure gradient settles in over the local
waters.

Rip Currents: The rip current risk remains moderate for the ocean
beaches both for the rest of today as well as for both Saturday and
Sunday with a prevailing SE swell.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DR
AVIATION...JC/DBR
MARINE...DR