709
FXUS61 KOKX 011127
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
727 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A large area of high pressure will prevail from the Great Lakes
east into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast states through Tuesday
before building offshore Wednesday. High pressure weakens on
Thursday, giving way to a frontal system Thursday night into
Saturday. High pressure returns on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A pseudo rex block over eastern North America will feature a
weak upper low over the Northern Mid Atlantic states, essentially
trapped beneath an upper high. Surface high pressure will
encompass a large area from the Great Lakes east into the
Northeast. Conditions will remain dry, but there will be a
canopy of high clouds across the area as the upper low draws
moisture northward from a frontal wave well south of the area.
The clouds will gradually lift north through the day with the
Lower Hudson Valley and eastern portions of CT and LI expected
to see the greatest extent, with skies varying between partly
and mostly cloudy. Skies are expected to clear across all area
tonight.

A weak easterly flow will strengthen today as low pressure
passes well south and east across the western Atlantic.

Daytime highs will be mainly in the mid and upper 70s, which
is about 3 to 5 degrees below normal. There will be slightly
larger departures tonight with lows in the lower 50s to lower
60s, highest across NYC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Upper low opens up and lifts north this period in response to a
trough digging south and east across central Canada. High
pressure across the area Tuesday will begin to weaken and then
moves offshore on Wednesday ahead of a frontal system tracking
across the Great Lakes.

Expect dry, cool conditions to continue with little change in
the vertical temperature profile and a continued maritime
influence with an easterly flow. Daytime highs will be in the
mid 70s to around 80, with lows Tuesday/Wednesday mainly in the
50s, except the lower 60s for NYC. Lows will come up a bit
Thursday morning in a southerly flow.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
No significant changes for the long term, so the NBM was closely
followed.

Key Points:

* High pressure weakens on Thursday giving way to a frontal system
  approaching from the west late Thursday/Thursday night.

* The frontal system lingers in the area through at least Saturday
  with possibly several chances of rain/storms late Thursday through
  Saturday afternoon.

* High pressure with dry conditions expected to build back in from
  the west by Sunday, lingering into early next week.

* Generally below average temperatures expected with high
  temperatures in the upper 70s to near 80 Thursday through
  Saturday. Highs drop into the low to middle 70s by Sunday and
  into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure remains just to the north of the terminals through
tonight as a weak low pressure system tracks well southeast of
the region.

VFR. Winds light and variable to a light NE wind this morning
becomes ENE and increase 10-15G20kt after 15Z. Winds subside to
less than 10 kt this evening. Winds may shift more N tonight.

There is a low chance of low stratus development late tonight
into early Tuesday morning, mainly in the 8-14Z timeframe.
Opted not to include in the TAFs at this time as confidence
remains low.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

ENE winds 10-15G20kt likely from mid morning through late
afternoon. Confidence in low stratus development late tonight
into Tuesday AM remains low.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Tuesday through Wednesday: VFR.

Thursday: VFR during the day with S gusts 20-25kt in the afternoon.
SHRA and possible MVFR at night.

Friday: SHRA/MVFR mainly in the morning. S gusts 20-25kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas will largely remain below SCA criteria under the
influence of high pressure through the middle of the week.
However, an area of low pressure passing well south and east
today into Tuesday will send a building easterly swell into the
waters with a chance of 5 ft seas on the ocean Tuesday and
Tuesday night. However, guidance continues to stay just below 5
ft during this time frame. E winds will be strongest this
afternoon at 10-15kt with gusts to around 20 kt, before
diminishing this evening.

Seas may return to small craft levels at the end of the week and
start of the weekend as a frontal system approaches the waters and
low pressure passes nearby.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The rip current risk should start low today with easterly winds
waves generally 2-3 ft around 5-7 seconds, but may increase to
moderate late in the day as waves increase to 3 to 4 ft.

The risk will likely be moderate on Tuesday as ESE swells
building to 3-4 ft at 8-9 seconds.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DW/MW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...DW/MW
HYDROLOGY...DW/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...