401
FXUS61 KOKX 312340
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
740 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A large area of high pressure will prevail from the Great Lakes
east into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast states through Tuesday
before building offshore Wednesday. High pressure weakens on
Thursday, giving way to a frontal system Thursday night into
Saturday. High pressure returns on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A weak upper low over the mid-Atlantic develops tonight and
slowly heads northward, situated just south of the area by
Monday morning. Dry conditions are expected underneath it as
surface high pressure build into the region, but there will be
an increase in high clouds overnight.

Lows will generally be in the 50s except for the lower 60s
across NYC. This is about 5 to 8 degrees below normal. The
increase in high clouds tonight may limit radiational cooling,
depending on how dense it will be and thus temperatures,
especially in the outlying areas, are not expected to be as cool
as previous nights, though they will still be below normal for
this time of year.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
With weak upper low over the area and weak ridging aloft over
southeastern Canada, a weak blocking pattern is in place Monday
through mid- week. Because of this, as well as the air mass
being moisture- starved and very weak lift across the region
conditions will remain dry into Tuesday. Thereafter, a long
wave upper trough sets up across the eastern 2/3 of the US. The
expansive area of high pressure at the surface from the Great
Lakes and into the Northeast will gradually weaken and translate
east, being situated overhead Tuesday night into Wednesday.
This all spells continued dry conditions into Wednesday with
little change in temperatures (continued seasonably cool)
through the short term.

A weak easterly flow will strengthen a bit Monday as low
pressure passes well south and east across the western Atlantic.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Our next chance for rainfall will be with a frontal system near
week`s end. Cloud cover will begin to increase Thursday into
Thursday night. At the same close a closed upper-low/trough will dig
into the Great Lakes, leading to falling heights aloft over the
region.

A cold front will approach and pass the area Thursday night into
Friday night. Rain looks likely with this front given available
guidance. However, timing of FROPA is still still in disagreement
among model guidance.

Some guidance bring a secondary front through on Saturday (such as
the GFS) building in high pressure on Sunday. Others bring the first
front all the way through and build high pressure in on Saturday.
Have gone with likely to chance POPs Thu night into Fri followed by
only slight chance POPs on Saturday given low confidence.

When high pressure builds back in, expect dry conditions to return
with more sunshine to finish out the weekend.

&&


.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure remains just to the north of the terminals
through Monday night as a weak low pressure system tracks well
southeast of the region.

VFR. Winds becoming light and variable thru this evening and
then NE less than 10 kt late tonight into morning push. ENE
winds increase 10-15G20kt Monday morning, subsiding to less than
10 kt Mon Eve.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

ENE winds 10-15G20kt likely from mid morning through late
afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday Night through Wednesday: VFR.

Thursday: VFR during the day with S gusts 20-25kt in the afternoon.
SHRA and possible MVFR at night.

Friday: SHRA/MVFR mainly in the morning. S gusts 20-25kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90


&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas will largely remain below SCA criteria under the
influence of high pressure through the middle of the week.
However, an area of low pressure passing well south and east
Monday into Tuesday will send a building easterly swell into the
waters with a chance of 5 ft seas on the ocean Tuesday and
Tuesday night. However, the latest guidance has trended downward
with wave heights during this time frame.

Seas may return to small craft levels at the end of the week and
star of the weekend as a frontal system approaches the waters
and low pressure passes nearby.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The rip current risk should start low on Monday with easterly
winds waves generally 2-3 ft around 7-8 seconds, but may
increase to moderate late in the day as waves increase to 3 to 4
ft.

The risk will likely be moderate on Tuesday as ESE swells
building to 3-4 ft at 8-9 seconds.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/BR
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...BR
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JP/BR
HYDROLOGY...JP/BR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...