227
FXUS61 KOKX 021121
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
621 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry and increasingly mild conditions continue into mid week.

2) Increasing likelihood for a wetting rain late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
The driest stretch of the year so far persists in response to
confluent NW upper flow giving way to East Coast upper ridging
thru mid week. At the surface, high pressure gradually elongates
offshore through mid week.

Temps moderate to well above normal through mid week as heights
rise aloft and high pressure slides offshore with return WAA SW
flow. High temps will rise from the lower to mid 60s today, to
mid 60s to around 70 Tue, and to the upr 60s to low 70s Wed and
Thu (10 degrees above seasonable). Similarly, overnight lows
will rise from the 40s to around 50 Tue morning to the upper
50s/lower 60s by Fri morning (close to normal high temps for
parts of the area this time of year).

Fog chances possibly increase each night, especially Tue night
thru Wed night as Max RH is modeled around 100 percent.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
The models remain in good agreement that a frontal sys will
approach the area on Thu, and slowly pass thru the area on Fri.
This would bring rain to the area as moisture transport aligns
with llvl convergence. The main upr low lags behind the front,
hence the slow passage.

A second round of rain or shwrs also possible mainly for Sat as
the main upr low swings thru. This phase of the fcst is a bit
more uncertain, as some of the modeling takes the H5 low a bit
too far north, therefore cutting off pcpn from the SW with the
dry slot.

NBM pops looked good for the rain chances so no adjustments were
made to the output. Peak chances centered around Fri with pops
in the 70-80 range.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure remains in control through the period as it slowly slides
just to the south and southeast through tomorrow.

VFR throughout the TAF period.

SW/SSW winds develop and get to 7-10 kt towards midday and
through the afternoon. Winds remain SW into Monday night, going
light and variable at some outlying terminals. Tomorrow, we
rinse and repeat, 5-10 kt from SW/SSW.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled AMD expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Tuesday: VFR, SW winds.

Wednesday: VFR, SW to S winds.

Thursday: VFR more likely early, with the probability of MVFR or lower
higher late in the day and at night for showers with MVFR or lower cond
developing.

Friday: Sub VFR possible in showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conds continue on all waters through the day on Thursday
as high pressure maintains a weak pressure gradient.

Next chance of SCA conditions on the ocean Thu night into Sat
as a frontal system impacts the waters. Potential for the swell
to get into the far ern Sound Fri as flow gains an ely
component.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...