856
FXUS61 KOKX 301829
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
229 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Conditions gradually warm and remain mostly dry through
Friday with high pressure in place.

2) Low chance of rain Sunday night. No impacts expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Surface high pressure will remain offshore through Friday.

A weak warm front moves across the region on Thursday resulting in
some mid and high cloud cover, but conditions remain dry.
Temperatures on Thursday get into the 70s.

By Friday, deep SW-W flow will allow 850mb temperatures to climb to
17-18C. This will allow surface temperatures to reach the upper 70s
and low 80s for much of the region. A few mid 80s will be possible
across the metro portions of NJ and NYC. While the warm temperatures
are not record breaking on Friday, temperatures will be 10-15
degrees above normal for this time of year.

A cold front is expected to move across the region late Friday
brings an end to the warm conditions. Some precipitation is also
expected with the frontal passage, so expect some increasing clouds
and chances for rain late Friday afternoon through the first part of
Friday night. The best chances for rain will be across the eastern
portions of the region.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
High pressure will be the main feature for the long term period
with temperatures around or below normal. From Saturday through
Wednesday, the only chance of rain appears to be during Sunday
night as a wave of low pressure passes to our south. Chances are
low, only 20 to 30%, and impacts from this are not expected.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure over the area will gradually shift offshore
Thursday.

Mainly VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF
period. There is some lingering MVFR stratus to the east of NYC
terminals which will scatter out late this afternoon into early
this evening.

Winds will be a general S-SW flow during the TAF period with
some variability in direction tonight for some terminals. Wind
speeds mainly stay near 5-10 kts during the TAF period. SW flow
expected to be more around 10 kts for Thursday afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of sea breeze could be 1-2 hours off for KLGA, KEWR,
KTEB.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday afternoon-Thursday night: VFR. Some potential SW wind
gusts 15-20 kt Thursday afternoon.

Friday: MVFR or lower possible. A chance of showers in the
afternoon, becoming likely for some locations at night.

Saturday-Sunday: Mainly VFR.

Sunday night-Monday: MVFR or lower possible with chance of showers
late at night into early Monday.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Light SW flow continues through Thursday with high pressure
settling offshore. Winds and seas increase with an approaching
cold front Friday and this could lead to a brief period of SCA
conditions on some of the coastal ocean waters late Friday afternoon
or Friday evening.

Easterly winds pick up on Sunday with gusts possibly approaching 25
kt for a brief time, otherwise winds and seas across all waters are
expected to remain below advisory levels this weekend into early
next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BC/JC
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...BC/JC