506
FXUS61 KOKX 271944
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
344 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will settle south of the area tonight into Thursday.
A frontal system approaches Thursday night and moves across the
area Friday into Friday evening. High pressure then follows this
weekend into the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A few sprinkles are possible across the interior into early
this evening as a shortwave continues pushing east of the area.
A dry subcloud should prevent any measurable rain and most
spots will remain dry. Otherwise, high pressure settles just to
our south with another mostly clear and dry night. Lows should
end up on the cool side across the interior with some locations
falling into the upper 40s and lower 50s. Elsewhere, lows look
to reach the mid to upper 50s with NYC metro falling to around
60 degrees. Patchy fog is also possible for some river valley
and interior locations.

A larger mean upper trough will remain over the eastern US on
Thursday, but the northeast will lie in a zone of weak ridging
within the larger trough. High pressure will slowly shift south
through the day and likely end up offshore by evening. Moisture
profiles indicate an increase in higher level moisture on Thursday
in response to a more amplified trough digging south out of
southeast Canada. The surface high pushing offshore will allow the
flow to increase out of the south in the afternoon, marking the
beginning of warm advection ahead of the next frontal system
associated with the aforementioned digging shortwave. Highs will
be slightly below average in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The shortwave will continue digging over the northeast Thursday
night before pivoting across the region on Friday. This will
send a cold front towards the area Thursday night and then
allow it to move across on Friday. Warm advection continues
Thursday night with potential of a few showers Friday morning as
moisture levels continue increasing. There may also be just
enough elevated instability to support an isolated thunderstorm.
Probabilities for showers are higher across Long Island and
southern Connecticut where the better moisture advection will
likely reside.

The cold front may not fully move through the area until Friday
evening. Moisture may continue to be limited west of the Hudson
River during the day Friday, which could prevent convective
development with the frontal passage for these areas. Further
east across Long Island and southern Connecticut, convective
chances are a bit higher with more moisture and slightly higher
levels of instability. 12z CAMs that go into Friday are in
agreement with this scenario illustrating scattered coverage of
convection east of the NYC metro in the afternoon/early evening
with the cold front. NBM PoPs also line up well with this
reasoning. Thinking convection should remain below severe
limits, but small hail due to the cold pocket aloft and gusty
winds are possible out of any storms across Long Island and
southeast Connecticut. The front pushes east of the area Friday
evening with high pressure building in from the Great Lakes
region the rest of the night. Highs on Friday should reach the
middle to upper 70s with potential of around 80 degrees in the
NYC metro. The NW will usher in a reinforcing shot of cooler and
drier air into early Saturday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Points:

* Dry and cool. Temperatures resembling normals for mid-September.

Not much change the last 24h and will continue with a dry, cool
forecast through the middle of next week. Forecast largely follows
the NBM.

Upper-level low over the Northeast lifts outs through the weekend
with high pressure building both aloft and at the surface. Surface
high pressure is expected to hold on across the area through the
middle of next week.

What to watch for:

A longwave trough digging across central Canada and the Midwest
kicks a weak upper trough/low over the Tennessee Valley east. The
ECMWF has been most persistent with developing low pressure off the
Southeast coast Tuesday and working it north along the eastern
seaboard on Wednesday. The GFS has been bounced around from run-to-
run, but neither the GEFS and EPS support the low close enough to
the coast for a significant impacts. However, just something to keep
an eye on.

Temperatures through the period will be closer to mid September
normals with highs in the mid to upper 70s and lows mainly in the
lower 50s to lower 60s. A few locations may even get into the upper
40s. Used NBM10-25% for the Pine Barrens region of LI from Sunday
morning through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure builds south of the region through tonight, and
moves off the mid Atlantic coast during Thursday as a cold front
begins to approach to the west.

VFR thru the TAF period.

WNW flow, with gusts to around 20 kt until around 21Z/22Z.
Gusts may be more occasional. Winds become light and variable
this evening. A light SW flow develops Thursday morning.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday afternoon: VFR. S/SW gusts up to 20 kt possible.

Thursday night-Friday: Mainly VFR. MVFR or lower possible with
a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms late Thursday
night into Friday, and Friday evening east.


Saturday - Monday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions will remain below SCA levels through Thursday
afternoon. Occasional gusts up to 25 kt are possible on the
ocean west of Fire Island Inlet due to increasing southerly flow
Thursday evening. For now will mention occasional 25 kt gusts
for this ocean zone and hold off on any SCA. Gusts may peak
around 20 kt on the rest of the waters Thursday evening. Seas
may also peak around 4 ft on the ocean during this time. A cold
front passage late Friday will allow winds and seas to remain
below SCA levels into Friday night.

High pressure will be largely in control over the weekend into
the first half of next week. This will keep winds generally 10
kt or less across all waters and seas 2 ft or less on the ocean
and a foot or less elsewhere.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the middle of next
week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a low rip current risk for the remainder of today for all
but the Atlantic beaches along the south fork of LI. This is due to
a 2 ft ESE swell with a slightly better breaking wave angle across
far eastern areas. Risk is then moderate for all zones on Thursday,
due to an increasing southerly flow.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DS/DW
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...DS/DW
HYDROLOGY...DS/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...