558
FXUS61 KOKX 311450
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1050 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A large area of high pressure will prevail from the Great Lakes
east into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast states through Tuesday
before building offshore Wednesday. A frontal system will then
move across the area late Thursday into Friday. High pressure
builds back into the region for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
An upper trough will continue to lift out to the NE today and
out into the North Atlantic. However, energy at the base of the
upper trough gets cutoff, while ridging aloft expands east
across southern Canada. This will leave a weak upper low across
the northern Mid Atlantic region. Conditions will remain dry due
to a moisture-starved airmass and very weak lift. There is a
chance for some high clouds late today into tonight. Surface
high pressure will continue to build into the area during this
time.

Highs today will top out in the upper 70s to around 80. This is
a few degrees below normal. Lows will generally be in the 50s
except for the lower 60s across NYC. This is about 5 to 8
degrees below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A weak upper low over the Mid Atlantic will slowly lift north
during this time, eventually getting absorbed by an upper trough
digging south and east across western and central Canada. At
the same time, the upper ridge to the north across southern
Canada builds east. The expansive area of high pressure at the
surface from the Great Lakes and into the Northeast will
gradually weaken and translate east. This all spells dry
conditions to continue with little change in temperatures. A
weak easterly flow will strengthen a bit Monday as low pressure
passes well south and east across the western Atlantic.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The NBM/previous forecast was followed with no changes.

Key Points:

* High pressure remains near the area Wednesday with dry conditions.

* Chance for precipitation returns on Thursday, with a better chance
  of rainfall Thursday night and Friday as an upper level trough and
  associated cold front approach and move into the region. There is
  a chance that Thursday remains dry with the cold front slightly
  slowed down from previous forecast runs.

* High pressure builds back into the region for Saturday.

* Daytime high temperatures in the long term will be in the 70s each
  day.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure remains near the terminals through the TAF period.

VFR. N-NE winds near 10kt giving way to afternoon/late day SE
seabreeze for most terminals. Light variable to NE winds
tonight.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Chance that KLGA remains NE through the afternoon instead of a
SE seabreeze shift. Sea breeze might not reach KTEB as well.
Higher confidence in sea breeze shifts for KJFK and KEWR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Monday through Wednesday: VFR.

Thursday: VFR AM, MVFR or lower PM in SHRA.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas will largely remain below SCA criteria with the
area under the influence of high pressure through the middle of
the week. However, an area of low pressure passing well south
and east Monday into Tuesday will send a building easterly
swell into the waters with a chance of 5 ft seas on the ocean
Tuesday and Tuesday night. The latter is a trend upward.

Seas may return to small craft levels to end the week and start the
weekend as a frontal system approaches the waters and low pressure
passes nearby.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A low rip current risk continues at ocean beaches today with
waves 1-2 ft at 5-7 seconds. The risk likely starts off low
Monday but could become moderate later in the day due to a
building easterly wind wave of 3-5 ft at 4-6 seconds.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$