598
FXUS61 KOKX 150802
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
402 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in from the northeast today and will influence
the area into the early week. A warm front may move through
Tuesday night, with a wave of low pressure impacting the area
Wednesday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A wave of low pressure pulls a frontal boundary farther offshore
today while high pressure noses in from the northeast. Aloft, a
mainly zonal flow is expected.

With high pressure nosing in from the northeast, some drier air
filters in, but eastern CT and eastern LI are the main locations
that will see the advantage of this as far as breaks of sun. Plenty
of moisture will still be around in the low levels to keep mostly
cloudy skies around for northeast NJ, NYC and western LI. Given this
moisture and the potential for very weak lift (likely from surface
to 900mb speed convergence), have reintroduced PoPs for these areas.
Still thinking the CAMs are overdone, but thinking at least slight
chance/chance of light rain. This is not a washout by any means and
much of the day should remain dry. Other areas likely stay dry with
the influence of high pressure.

Stuck with NBM for highs today as it seems to reflect effects from
differences in cloud cover well. The warm spots will likely be in
eastern CT with some low 70s. Elsewhere expect 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Some very slight height rises are expected on Monday with shortwave
ridging aloft. A similar surface pattern to Sunday is expected with
high pressure remaining in place, weakening slightly. Dry conditions
are expected. Went a bit cooler than the NBM as an easterly flow and
some cloud cover will likely keep us from getting out of the upper
60s/lower 70s.

High pressure weakens more on Tuesday and the frontal boundary to
our south starts returning north as a warm front. The front could
move through as Tuesday night. This, and another wave of low
pressure along the front will bring more rain to the area. The
latest NAM and GFS are both hinting at the possibility of a long
and skinny MUCAPE profile with pwat values around 2.25 inches
early Wednesday morning. It is too early for specifics but there
is potential for efficient rainfall with heavy downpours. At
this time the storm motion appears to be around 30 kts. This
trend will need to be monitored.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A low pressure system tracking through southern Canada Wednesday
will bring a warm front through the region by late Wednesday.
A warm and humid airmass will then be in place for Wednesday night
into Thursday. The forecast remains on track with the timing of a
cold front passing through the region Thursday night. Increasing
surface based CAPE, up to 1500 J/kg Thursday, along with increasing
shear, and surface instability will result in thunderstorms, a few
of which could contain briefly heavy rainfall. Precipitable water
values have decreased a little from Saturday`s forecasts, and storms
will be moving rather quickly, which will lessen the impacts for
excessive rainfall and potential hydrologic impacts. After the
passage of the cold front an extended period of dry weather is
expected as ridging increases to the west and moves into the region
Friday night into next weekend. There is only a slight chance of
afternoon/evening thunderstorms across the interior Friday as a weak
surface trough sets up, however, with increasing heights and
subsidence, capping may prevent any development.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A stationary front will remain to the south of the terminals through
tonight. Meanwhile, high pressure builds towards the terminals from
the northeast today, and remains into tonight.

MVFR through the TAF period at the NYC metro terminals and east,
except VFR at KGON. MVFR, becoming VFR at KBDR and KSWF by midday,
with timing uncertain, depending how quickly high pressure builds in
from the northeast. There is a chance that the NYC metro terminals
briefly become VFR late this afternoon into the early evening,
however, confidence is low.

There is a chance of light rain at the NYC metro terminals this
morning with no impacts to visibilities or ceilings.

NE winds around 10 kt or less through the TAF period.

    NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Improvement to VFR possible late Sunday afternoon into the early
evening.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Late tonight: MVFR, except VFR likely at KGON and KSWF. A slight
chance of light rain at the NYC metro terminals.

Monday: MVFR.

Tuesday: MVFR, IFR possible. A chance of showers at night.

Wednesday - Thursday: Mostly VFR. A chance of showers and
thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon and evening.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
The Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 6AM this morning
for 5 ft seas across the ocean waters from Sandy Hook to
Moriches Inlet. Thereafter, a weak pressure gradient results in
sub-SCA conditions through Tuesday night.

Wednesday through Friday winds and seas continue to remain
below SCA levels on the forecast waters. However, with an
increasing southwest flow, ahead of a cold front Thursday, ocean
seas and gusts may briefly approach SCA levels late day into
the early evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through next weekend at this
time.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a low risk of rip currents today and Monday. The main
wave component is an easterly wind wave 3-4 ft at 6-8s. A 1-2ft
southeast swell at 7-9s also exists. Neither wave component is
expected to bring anything above a low risk of rip currents.
Conditions were a bit more favorable on Saturday and most
beaches reported low rip activity.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     ANZ353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MET/JT
NEAR TERM...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MET/JT
HYDROLOGY...MET/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JT