136
FXUS61 KOKX 030308
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1108 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes overall.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A cold front moves offshore overnight.

2) Next chance of rain Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.

3) Temperatures cooler this weekend and much cooler next week.
Coolest airmass of the season will move in.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Some showers linger behind the cold front across the area
heading into the overnight, especially across for coastal parts.
More dry air enters going into daybreak Saturday with steadily
decreasing dewpoints.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
The next rain event in the forecast will be within the latter half
of this weekend. This will be from an area of low pressure passing
along a front south of Long Island. This will be the same front that
went through Friday night.

The upper level forcing will be there also with some models
indicating the approach of right read quad of upper jet. In the mid
levels, some forcing is present as well with some positive vorticity
advection ahead of a longer wavelength trough.

The chances of rain are not much different from previously forecast.
There is still quite a spread in the model guidance with the low and
its associated rainfall. There is model run to run variability as
well. However, some model ensemble members continue to show near an
inch of rainfall possible with this event while some others,
including the 12Z Friday operational NAM, have no rainfall.

Want to keep the chance of rain as this is what the consensus of
guidance still indicates with the NBM as well as the LREF mean to
avoid significant forecast changes in POP (i.e. slight chance to
chance or vice versa).

The timing for this will be mainly Sunday afternoon through Sunday
night with the rain tapering off late Sunday night into early Monday.
At this time, forecast amounts are not expected to be significant so
not expecting flooding issues this event.


.KEY MESSAGE 3...
The other main part of the weather story will be lower temperatures
not just this weekend but even more so Tuesday and Wednesday
next week. The main synoptic feature associated with this very
cool air mass is a strong cutoff upper level low moving from
Ontario to Quebec Sunday into Monday. The cutoff upper level low
eventually moves into Canadian Maritimes Tuesday into Tuesday
night.

Area of low pressure passes farther northeast of the region Monday,
followed by a cold front moving through into Monday night. High
pressure builds in from the north and west thereafter into midweek.
The cold core of this airmass will be moving in Tuesday when 850mb
temperatures will be near 0 to 2 degrees C.

Surface high temperatures forecast do not get out of the 60s Tuesday
and Wednesday next week. We also will start to see a lot more 40s
for lows for Monday night, Tuesday night and Wednesday night. For
Tuesday night, that is relatively the coldest night forecast in the
forecast period, with lows ranging from mainly the upper 30s to
upper 40s for the region.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front moves offshore overnight. High pressure follows, passing
to the north on Saturday.

A few light showers may linger through about 06z.

Winds become NNW less than 10 kt overnight, then gradually veer N and
then NE, with speeds increasing to around or just over 10 kt after
daybreak. NE winds then become more E late in the day mainly across
eastern sections, otherwise mainly NE winds further west through the
afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No amendments expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday night: VFR, with E to NE winds up to 10 kt.

Sunday: VFR likely in AM. MVFR or lower possible with chance of rain
in the late afternoon and evening. Best chance for rain will be at
the NYC metro and coastal terminals. ENE winds G15-18kt in the morning.

Monday: VFR. NW winds 10-15G20kt in the afternoon and evening.

Tuesday and Wednesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA is in effect for ocean out 20 nm east of Fire Island Inlet
through this evening. This ends at midnight. This is for ocean
seas near 5 ft and wind gusts near 25 kt. Other waters into this
evening, there could be some occasional 25 kt gusts especially
behind the cold front, but overall sub-SCA conditions should
prevail.

Mainly sub-SCA conditions are expected overnight through Monday
but some SCA potential is there for some of the waters on
Sunday and Sunday night with the low pressure approach.

Outer ocean seas 20-60 nm out are near 4 to 5 ft in marine
forecast through Monday along with wind gusts mostly near 20-25
kt.

A cold front will move across the area waters late Monday. SCA
conditions can be expected from late Monday into early Tuesday
with winds and seas increasing. Right now, SCA conditions appear
likely on at least the ocean, and perhaps all coastal waters.
Conditions improve late Tuesday with sub-SCA conditions for the
middle and end of the week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ350-353.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...BC/JM