237
FXUS61 KOKX 170535
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
135 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure east of New England will gradually weaken and
shift east Tuesday as a stationary front remains well to the
south. This front will move back north as a warm front
beginning Tuesday night, lifting north of the area early
Wednesday, while a cold front approaches from the Midwest. The
cold front will move across late Thursday afternoon into
Thursday evening. Weak high pressure will then build in for the
end of the week. Another warm front will lift to the north and
west Saturday night into Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Showers have been a bit more widespread than expected this
evening from the NYC metro into NE NJ, LoHud, and Southern CT.
Have updated the forecast to account for the latest radar
trends. The showers will only bring light amounts where they
occur. Additional showers are possible overnight, especially NW
of the NYC metro. Otherwise, marine layer with abundant cloud
coverage persists over most of the area. Some patchy fog is
also possible tonight, with temps gradually falling to the lower
60s throughout.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
The high will weaken further on Tue, with the flow becoming SE in
the afternoon. Additional shortwave energy approaches aloft.
With plenty of moisture still around this will allow for
shower activity, especially north and west of NYC. Temp s should
be a little milder than recent days, reaching the mid 70s in NE
NJ and the lower 70s most elsewhere.

As the warm front begins to approach, chances for showers and
possibly a tstm (via elevated instability) should continue Tue
night. Fog also more likely as SE flow turns S ahead of the
front. Low temps will be in the lower/mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key points:

* Very warm and humid Thursday with the potential for strong to
  severe thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and night.

* Potential for high heat and humidity late in the weekend into
  early next week.

Global models are in good agreement and forecast largely
followed NBM during this period.

Amplifying upper trough across the Midwest and Mid Mississippi
Valley on Wednesday will send a warm front north of the area
early in the day. However, the warm sector looks to be active
with a chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday, especially
in the afternoon and evening. PW values will increase to around
2 inches, which is close to a daily max for KOKX upper air
soundings. Thus, any convection will likely be efficient at
producing heavy rainfall. However, storm motion will be about 30
kt with the boundary to the north. Thus, no training issues at
this time and large scale lift is rather weak. Instability is
marginal to moderate, highest across the interior. Any flooding
issues will likely be of the minor nuisance variety.

Thursday gets quite a bit more interesting with the cold front
moving into the area during the afternoon and evening hours.
Moderate to high instability and a strengthening vertical wind
profile suggest the potential for strong to severe bowing line
segments. SPC Day 4 and CSU-MLP have the area in greater than
15% for severe weather with the main threat being damaging
winds. Limiting factors could be too much dry air in the low-
levels, lowering MLCAPE values. However, it is a bit early to be
too specific with details, but nevertheless something to keep a
watch on. In addition, temperatures will be about 10 degrees
above normal with dew points well into the 60s to around 70. NBM
box and whisker plots show deterministic NBM at or below the
25th percentile. Thus, there is the potential for higher temps.
Deterministic NBM similar to long rage GFS and ECMWF MOS values.

Temperatures fall off some Friday into Saturday but still
several degrees above normal. Also have to watch out for some
ridge rollers Saturday night into Sunday as heights build and a
warm front over the Great Lakes potentially trigger MCS
development. What is more certain, heights build Sunday into
Monday, as a high amplitude ridge takes takes control east of
the Mississippi River Valley. This lines up with start of the
summer and will easily be the warmest airmass of the season.
Heat indices will be on the rise Sunday into Monday, with 95 to
100 plus from NYC and points north and west. Guidance points to
even warmer conditions on Tuesday. Thus, there is the potential
for heat headlines. NBM box and whisker plots once again showing
NBM deterministic values at or below the 25ht percentile.
Values closer to the 50th support ambient temperatures around
100 in some locations. Dew points at this time are forecast to
be in the upper 60s to around 70.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure off the New England gradually weakens and shift
east during Tuesday as a stationary front remains well to the
south. The front will begin lifting north as a warm front late
Tuesday night.

IFR to LIFR prevails through the overnight and into Tuesday
morning, and possibly into the afternoon, as any gradual
improvement to MVFR will likely be during Tuesday afternoon. The
improvement will be brief, and conditions are expected to lower
once again to IFR and LIFR Tuesday evening.

Scattered light showers continue across northeastern New Jersey,
into the NYC metro, Lower Hudson Valley, and Southern CT, and
will become more scattered to isolated, and possibly end
through the overnight. The chances for additional showers
increases Tuesday evening, mainly north and west of the NYC
metro.

Winds will generally be E to NE 10kt or less through the
overnight and into Tuesday morning. Winds then become ESE-SE
late Tuesday morning into the afternoon, and remain under 10kt.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments expected for flight categories through Tuesday
evening.

Timing of LIFR may be off by several hours overnight and could
linger a few hours longer than indicated Tuesday morning.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Late Tuesday night: IFR-LIFR. Showers with an isolated
thunderstorm possible.

Wednesday: Chance of IFR early, otherwise VFR. A chance of
showers and thunderstorms late with MVFR.

Thursday: VFR. Showers and thunderstorms with MVFR possible in
the afternoon and evening.

Friday and Saturday: VFR. Slight chance Friday and Saturday
evening NW of NYC metro.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Seas and wind gusts in E flow are likely just shy of SCA
criteria attm on the outermost coastal ocean waters W of Fire
Island Inlet. With a downward trend expected tonight and
minimal/occasional coverage of 5-ft seas at most, elected not
to issue SCA.

Ocean seas E of Moriches Inlet may briefly reach SCA levels Thu
evening as SW winds ahead of a cold front increase.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Some downpours possible with heavier showers and possible tstms
late Tue night, mainly well inland NW of NYC.

Locally heavy downpours are also possible with any thunderstorms
Wednesday and again Thursday afternoon into the evening.
However, the risk of flooding will be mitigated by the speed
of any cells and lack of overall cell training.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Rip current risk remains at moderate for today. The Tuesday
forecast will be updated within the hour. Check for update shortly.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BG/DW
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BG/DW
HYDROLOGY...BG/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...