926
FXUS61 KOKX 300002
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
802 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front shifts offshore this evening. High pressure then
follows for the weekend and remains in control through the middle of
next week. A frontal system then approaches to end the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

Broken line of thunderstorms along pre-frontal trough has
pushed east of Long Island this evening, with cold front
pushing from near NYC and NY/CT border eastward through 06z.
Dwindling instability and moisture for the front to work with,
so mainly some iso-sct shower activity from w to e through
around midnight. Briefly gusty NW winds overnight as
cooler/drier airmass advects in.

NBM looked good for overnight low temperatures with 50s in most
places and mid to upper 40s well NW of the city.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A large area of high pressure expands from the upper Mississippi
Valley to the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Mainly clear skies and low
humidity will be accompanied by high temperatures around 5 degrees
below normal on Saturday and a little warmer on Sunday. NBM was
followed for daytime highs, with lows weighted toward a MAV/MET MOS
blend across the cooler Pine Barrens region of LI and well inland to
better capture radiational cooling.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Points:

* High pressure will remain over the region Monday through
  Wednesday, with dry and cool conditions. Temperatures will be more
  like mid-September.

* Chance for precipitation returns on Thursday and Friday as an
  upper level trough and associated cold front approach and move
  into the region.

With high pressure remaining entrenched over the region Monday
through Wednesday dry and cool weather is expected. The high moves
off the New England and Mid Atlantic coast Wednesday night into
Thursday as a cold front slowly approaches, with the associated weak
low tracking slowly through the Great Lakes region, and an inverted
trough along the eastern seaboard.
Timing of the front is a little delayed and moves slowly across the
region into Friday, as a shortwave rotates into the longwave trough
and become closed. The upper low and surface cold front may
lingering into the beginning of next weekend as an amplified ridge
remains across the Western Atlantic.

Only changes to the NBM was for cooler overnight lows Monday night
through Wednesday night, especially across the normally cooler
locations of the interior, and the Pine Barrens of eastern Long
Island, with nearly clear skies and light winds each night. For the
lows used a blend of the deterministic and 25th percentile, which
gives lows closer to MOS guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front passes east of the terminals by around midnight.
High pressure then builds to the southwest of the terminals
through Saturday, and into the region thru Sunday.

VFR, outside of a brief and isolated shower for NYC and eastern
terminals through 06z. Sct-Bkn cigs develop around 5kft Sat
aft.

NW winds develop across all terminals btwn 00z and 03z. Gusts to
20 kt possible btwn 01z and 06z for NYC/NJ metro terminals.
NW winds btwn 8-12 kt on Saturday, with gusts to mid/upper teens
possible from late morning into afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Brief and isolated shower w/MVFR conds possible through 02z.
Winds mainly right of 310 mag thru the period, except may back
to the left at KJFK for Sat eve push.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday Afternoon through Wednesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Gusts around 20kt still possible until a few hours after
midnight with the beginnings of cold air advection. Winds and
waves otherwise subside overnight and remain below advisory
thresholds through the weekend.

High pressure will remain across the forecast waters Monday through
Wednesday. Conditions will generally remain below SCA levels during
this time. However, there is a chance that ocean seas will be
marginally 5 feet east of Fire Island Inlet Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning with a 4 foot east to southeast swell.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the end of next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There will be a low risk at the ocean beaches Saturday and
Sunday with 1-2 ft waves at 5-7 seconds.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV