129
FXUS61 KOKX 191900
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
300 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Rainfall forecasts continue to lower compared to previous forecast
and flash flooding is no longer expected Sunday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Widespread rain Sunday into Sunday night.

2) Breezy and cool conditions likely mid to late next week, with
periods of unsettled weather possible. Potential for minor to
moderate coastal flood and shoreline impacts mid to late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...

Frontal system with a weak wave of low pressure for the close of
this weekend will eventually settle to the south of the region into
early next week. Potential for heavy rain Sunday into Sunday night
has significantly lowered as the system is more progressive and less
unstable/more stratiform in nature. In fact, the Weather Prediction
Center has taken the area out of the marginal risk of excessive
rainfall for Sunday. Brief downpours are still possible with PWATs
still near 2 inches and dew points rising into the lower to middle
60s. Although there is no longer mention of thunder in the forecast,
a thunderstorm somewhere within the forecast area is still possible.
But, SBCAPE values are well below 100 J/kg, with a fair amount of
CIN. Some elevated CAPE values in model soundings do show values
close to 100 J/kg. Average rainfall amounts tonight through daybreak
Monday range from 1/3 to 1 inch.

The bulk of the rain looks to taper off by early Monday but chances
of rain remain Tuesday into midweek with cold front remaining south
of the region and high pressure well to the north of the region.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Potential for a period of unsettled weather mainly Wednesday night
through Friday night between strong Canadian high pressure anchoring
across SE Canada and northern New England while a series of lows
that are expected to develop over the SE US coast deepen and head
northeast during this time frame. These lows are in response to a
closed upper low currently over the PAC NW slowly drifting across
the US to the Great Lakes and then east coast during the mid to late
week. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty at this time, but
the current track takes the low on a slow track northward from
Wednesday through Friday, staying east of the region.

Below normal temperatures are expected from mid to late week thanks
to cool, Canadian high pressure, mostly cloudy skies, and
persistent breezy east to northeast flow (gusts 30-40 mph)
during this time frame.

If persistent and long fetch E/NE gales materialize during the mid
to late week period, ahead of the approaching full moon next
weekend, this will bring potential for minor to moderate coastal
flood and shoreline impacts during time of high tide.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure slowly works offshore through tonight, while a
warm front approaches from the southwest. The warm front becomes
nearly stationary across the area on Sunday before a cold frontal
passage Sunday night.

VFR through much of tonight. Conditions will lower to MVFR/IFR
late tonight into Sunday morning with a steady rain overspreading
the area during the morning hours and continuing through the
day.

E/SE winds this afternoon, generally less than 10kt, will
become predominantly SE. Winds will increase Sunday morning to
10-15kt G15-20kt, highest at the coastal terminals, then veer
to a more southerly direction.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of flight category changes will likely vary some Sunday.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday Afternoon/Night: Rain ends from NW to SE Sunday night
with the Lower Hudson Valley terminals possibly going VFR
overnight. Southeasterly wind gusts near 15-20 kt in the
afternoon/early evening, especially at the coastal terminals.

Monday: Becoming VFR with a low chance for showers at the
coast. N-NE wind gusts near 20 kt.

Tuesday through Thursday: Chance of MVFR or lower in showers.
NE wind gusts 20-25 kt Tuesday and 20 to 30 kt Wednesday and
Thursday, highest at the coastal terminals.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure builds in through tonight. The high shifts east
over southeastern Canada with a frontal system moving in Sunday
into Sunday night. Sub SCA conditions are expected through this
time frame.

A prolonged period SCA conditions are expected Tuesday through
Tuesday night. A prolonged period of gales is possible from
late Tuesday night on the ocean waters through the end of the
week as a coastal low impacts the waters. Gales are possible on
all other non- ocean waters (except the harbor) from Thursday
onward. The harbor is likely to remain below gales (SCA likely)
through this time frame. This will lead waves to build on the
ocean 12-15+ ft and 4-6+ ft on LI sound.


Rip Currents:
The rip current risk for this weekend will be moderate with more
onshore flow developing this afternoon and remaining onshore for
Sunday. Ocean swells will be near 3 to 4 ft with some onshore
component.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JP