072
FXUS61 KOKX 170626
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
226 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Shower chance for this evening / tonight. Low chance of an
isolated t-storm N&W. No impacts expected.

2) Lowering humidity during Friday with dry and pleasant weather
through Saturday.

3) Wet weather increasingly likely for the second half of the
weekend. High uncertainty as to whether it remains unsettled into
Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...

What is left of an MCS which emanated out of Eastern Ohio slowly
migrates east through today. A cold front also moves east and
approaches the region into this evening. The CAMs for the most part
have been consistent in weakening this activity as it moves east.
There remains a chance that the activity may hold together better
than advertised by the CAM consensus. If this does happen then it is
possible that some t-storm activity gets into far NW and N portions
of the area. Thus have slight chance of t-storm towards late day and
evening for these sections, otherwise have slight chance to chance
showers further east across the area and mainly for the overnight
hours. Rainfall amounts overall should be fairly light and under a
quarter inch, although locally higher amounts N and NW cannot be
completely ruled out in any t-storm. The cold front should move
across overnight from NW to SE bringing showers to an end by early
Friday morning across eastern sections.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...

A cooler and drier air mass will gradually work in behind the cold
front during the day Friday and into Friday night. Dewpoints are
forecast the gradually fall through the 60s during Friday morning,
and then through the 50s during the remainder of Friday, and
potentially into the middle and upper 40s by late Friday night. This
would allow outlying areas to fall into the upper 40s and 50s with
respect to minimum temperatures by Saturday morning. With high
pressure getting further east during Saturday afternoon and a
developing easterly flow daytime temperatures across portions of the
area may struggle to get out of the upper 60s to begin the
weekend.


.KEY MESSAGE 3...

During Saturday night as high pressure departs the New England coast
a warm front will approach from the west-southwest. This will bring
more clouds Saturday night and the likelihood of rain towards Sunday
morning. Maintaining likely PoPs and also have categorical PoPs
throughout the day Sunday, with PoPs trailing off from NW to SE
Sunday night. Afterwards, forecast confidence remains below average
at this time with uncertainty around the eventual positioning of the
frontal boundary. The latest trend in the NWP global and AI guidance
has the boundary getting further south than previous guidance. Thus,
Monday may just feature a good deal of clouds with perhaps the bulk
of the shower activity remaining south of the area. This theme
continues into mid week, with some deterministic guidance bringing
rain back into the region later Tuesday. PoPs may have to be raised
for Tue and Wed in future forecast packages if the ECMWF guidance is
correct. Temperatures during this time period should average
slightly below normal, especially daytime temperatures with guidance
indicating an onshore northeast to east flow.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The cold front approaches the region today, eventually crossing
through late tonight into early Friday morning.

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with
exception of KGON. KGON has both some low stratus and fog potential
(mainly MVFR) early on in the TAF period early today with otherwise
the only other exception being the showers ahead and along the cold
front. These showers could briefly result in MVFR conditions mainly
for the timeframe of tonight.

Regarding winds, generally a southerly flow near 5-10 kt for much of
the TAF period. Some terminals will be lighter with winds less than
5 kts along with variable directions into this morning as well as
for some time late tonight. For 30 hr TAF sites, they have a wind
shift post cold front more to the W-NW with wind speeds near 10 kt
into early Friday morning.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments possible for timing of showers and MVFR which could
be off by 1-3 hours.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Late Tonight: MVFR or lower in any showers that move through, but
mainly VFR.

Friday: MVFR or lower possible in the morning, but mainly VFR.

Saturday: VFR.

Saturday Night-Sunday Night: Showers move in late Saturday night,
then become widespread on Sunday. A slight chance of thunderstorms.
MVFR or lower possible at times. Southerly wind gusts near 15-20 kt
Sunday and Sunday night.

Monday: MVFR or lower possible with possible showers. NE wind gusts
near 15-20 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Mainly sub advisory conditions through today and tonight, although a
brief period of 20 kt gusts are likely for the western ocean waters
into the western south shore bays late this afternoon and early this
evening. Otherwise expect prevailing sub advisory conditions through
Friday as the winds turn more out of the north. Towards early
Saturday morning marginal small craft gusts of 20 to 25 kt develops
on an NE flow. This should subside towards towards the afternoon as
the pressure gradient weakens. A better chance at prevailing and
more widespread small craft conditions develops during the day Sunday
and carrying through much of the time through Monday night.

Rip Currents:
A moderate risk of rip currents is expected on all ocean beaches
today, especially with a SE swell under an increasing southerly wind
wave this afternoon. The winds turn offshore and out of the N/NW on
Friday. A moderate risk should linger through the morning, with the
risk trending towards low later in the day.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JE
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JE