923
FXUS61 KOKX 110713
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
313 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Small Craft advisory has been cancelled. Otherwise, no
significant changes with the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Heat advisory remains in effect for much of the region
Thursday through Friday with hot and humid conditions expected.

2) There is a risk for isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms
and localized flash flooding during the late afternoon and evening
hours Thursday and Friday.

3) Still hot but not as humid for the weekend, temperatures cool off
more early next week. Multiple chances of showers and possible
thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...

An upper ridge will briefly re-establish itself over the region on
Thursday and again on Friday behind any storms that move through on
Thursday evening. This will be ahead of an upper level trough, which
will support a surface low pressure system that will move through
the region on Friday night. In the warm sector of this system, 850
mb temperatures will surge toward the 20 C mark, translating to
surface temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Meanwhile, there
will be an increase in surface moisture across the region with dew
points in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Together, this will allow for
Heat Index values to be in the mid 90s to lower 100s for Thursday
and Friday with the Heat Advisory remaining in effect for much of
the area. Temperatures and heat index values will remain muted in
the lower to mid 80s for coastal SE CT and Eastern Long Island, and
these areas will remain out of the Heat Advisory.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...

The airmass over the region is expected to become much more unstable
on today with high heat and humidity (dew points around 70).
Confidence is increasing for a complex of showers and thunderstorms
to move in from the NW during the late afternoon and evening hours.
A high CAPE environment with mid level lapse rates around 6.5C will
be sufficient enough to support deep convection. Shear is marginal
but may be just enough to support cold pool maintenance. Isolated
pulse severe is the main threat with some small bowing segments
possible. While temperatures are warm aloft, deep convection will
warrant a large hail threat in addition to damaging wind gusts. SPC
has a slight risk with isolated to scattered coverage. WPC has
included the area in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall, which
is localized flash flood threat. High PW values around 2" along with
deep convection favor high rainfall rates. Max hourly rainfall rate
look to be about 2 inches.

Friday will feature another high CAPE, weak shear day with evening
showers and thunderstorms likely along and ahead of an approaching
cold front. Expect isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms with
the main threat being damaging wind gusts. SPC once again has much
of the area in a slight risk for severs storms, though a more
prominent threat of damaging wind gusts, especially for western
areas. Flash flood threat looks isolated at this time.


.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Still hot for the weekend with quite a few locations reaching highs
in the lower 90s but lower dew points will limit the extent of the
heat index values as the airmass will become less humid. Heat
indices max values stay near 90 or less. Unsettled weather pattern
establishes itself, nearly zonal mid level flow. Periodic low
pressure disturbances with periodic chances of showers heading into
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Weak low pressure resides near the region through the TAF period.

Mainly VFR into the morning hours but there will be a chance for
MVFR for NYC terminals. To the east, higher likelihood of MVFR to
IFR conditions with sub-IFR at KGON in stratus/fog. By late
morning and through remainder of TAF period, mainly VFR but MVFR
or lower possible within showers and thunderstorms. The window
for these generally in the 21-03Z timeframe. There is the
possibility that some thunderstorms could become severe with
brief strong wind gusts being the main threat.

Regarding winds, some variability in direction with wind speeds near
or less than 5 kts into the early morning. Then winds increase out
of a general SW to WNW direction near 10 kts. Flow generally
westerly tonight also near 10 kts. Some locations will have gusts up
to 20 kt late afternoon into early evening.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

MVFR may not occur at all into early this morning, chances for
occurrence are low.

Wind gusts 15-20 kt possible at KJFK and KLGA this afternoon
into early evening.

Timing of showers and thunderstorms could be 1 to 3 hours off from
TAF.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Late Tonight: Mainly VFR.

Friday: VFR initially. Then MVFR or lower possible at times
with chances for showers and thunderstorms late afternoon into
the night. Again, potential for some thunderstorms to be severe
with main threat being damaging winds.

Saturday: VFR.

Sunday: VFR early day, then slight chance of a shower or
thunderstorm with brief MVFR or lower possible. Showers likely at
night with MVFR or lower possible and a slight chance of a
thunderstorm. Southerly wind gusts 15-20 kt afternoon and evening.

Monday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of a shower with MVFR possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA conditions have largely come to an end so the advisories have
been cancelled.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected through much of the forecast period
with near SCA conditions possible once again for the ocean waters
Sunday afternoon through Monday morning.

Rip Currents...

For today, there is a moderate rip current risk with SW winds around
10 kt and surf around 3 ft.

For Friday, the risk is low with with SW-S winds around 10 kt  and
surf heights around 2 ft

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

June 11:
KEWR: 96/2000
KBDR: 93/1984
KNYC: 95/1973
KLGA: 96/1984
KJFK: 93/1984
KISP: 93/1973

June 12:
KEWR: 97/2017
KBDR: 93/2017
KNYC: 93/2017
KLGA: 96/2017
KJFK: 92/2017
KISP: 91/2017


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 11:
KEWR: 77/1984
KBDR: 71/2008
KNYC: 78/1984
KLGA: 76/1973
KJFK: 76/1984
KISP: 71/1984

June 12:
KEWR: 74/1973
KBDR: 69/1973
KNYC: 76/2017
KLGA: 76/2017
KJFK: 73/1970
KISP: 70/1973

June 13:
KEWR: 74/2005
KBDR: 71/2017
KNYC: 77/2017
KLGA: 80/2017
KJFK: 72/2017
KISP: 70/1969

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT Friday for
     CTZ005>010.
     Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for CTZ009>012.
NY...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT Friday for
     NYZ067>075-078-080-176>179.
     Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT Friday for NJZ002-
     004-006-103>108.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DW/MW
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...MW