309
FXUS61 KOKX 022041
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
341 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry and mild through at least mid week, possibly longer.

2) Increasing likelihood for a wetting rain late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Aloft, a highly amplified flow will feature a longwave trough
over the Plains working slowly east, and a building upper ridge
working toward the eastern seaboard. By Wednesday, 50H across
the Northeast will be about +1-2SD. This will result in unseasonably
warm conditions through most of the week, with temperatures on the
order of 10, to possibly 15 degrees above normal. Highs through
the week will generally be in the upper 60s to lower 70s, with
low rising well into the 50s for the second half of the week.
There is some uncertainty with timing of clouds and rainfall
moving into the region for the end of the week with a slow
moving frontal system. 12Z guidance has trended slower and
drier. This will impact how warm the area will be to close out
the week.

In addition, with increasing low-level moisture through the
week, fog will become a possibility. Right now, its a low
confidence forecast.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
12Z guidance has trended slower with the arrival of a frontal
system at the end of the week, impacting the arrival of rainfall
across the region. There are signals in the global models with a
potential active frontal boundary as the cold front works into
the area Thursday night into Friday. There is strengthening
thermal forcing/convergence as the boundary gets to the coast.
In addition, the slow eastward movement with an amplified flow
will be a factor. This is definitely something to watch, but at
the same time, is is too early to be specific with the location
of a heavy rainfall axis, and if it will even be in the
forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure remains centered off the Mid Atlantic coast
through Tuesday.

VFR.

SW/S winds 10-15 kt this afternoon. Speeds fall this evening,
and SW flow persists on Tuesday at or under 10 kt.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled AMD expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday PM: VFR, SW winds.

Wednesday: VFR, SW to S winds.

Thursday: VFR more likely early, with the probability of MVFR or lower
higher late in the day and at night for showers with MVFR or lower cond
developing.

Friday: Sub VFR possible in showers.

Saturday: Improving to VFR early.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conds continue on all waters through the day on Thursday
as high pressure maintains a weak pressure gradient.

Next chance of SCA conditions on the ocean Thu night into Sat
as a frontal system impacts the waters preceded by a prolonged
period of southerly flow. Potential for the swell to get into
the far ern Sound Fri as flow gains an ely component.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...DW