168
FXUS61 KOKX 292332
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
732 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A large area of high pressure remains over the northeast
and mid Atlantic through next Monday. Aside from this, only a
dry cold front passage is expected this Tuesday into Tuesday
night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
High pressure will be in place with high/thin clouds continuing to
stream in from the south. This will prevent ideal radiational
cooling conditions tonight. However, still blended in cooler
MAV/MET MOS for low temperatures over the northernmost zones as
this would be the area where the cloud cover probably isn`t as
thick. Low temperatures otherwise above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Upper ridging east of the Mississippi River Valley and troughing
across eastern Canada will allow a cold front to drop down across
the area Tuesday into Tuesday night with a cooler airmass to follow.
However, cold air advection doesn`t really get noticeable until
Tuesday night. Even without radiational cooling being a factor, low
temperature should fall into the mid 40s well NW of the city with
50s for most other locations. This will be after another day with
with above-normal high temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

It will feel like Autumn on Wednesday with the cooler air mass
settled in. Plenty of sunshine and breezy with a tighter pressure
gradient over the area. Highs 65-70, which is a little below normal.
Mainly clear and cool Wednesday night with diminishing winds. This
will allow lows to fall into the mid to upper 30s well NW of the
city, but mid 40s to low 50s for most other spots. Didn`t add frost
to the forecast yet, but patchy frost could be possible in parts of
Orange County late at night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Dry through the period. Thursday and Thursday night temperatures
will be several degrees below normal and gusty northeast winds early
Thursday will be diminishing through the day as the high become
entrenched across the region. Then milder conditions are expected
Saturday through Monday with above normal temperatures. The NBM was
followed through the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure remains in control through Tuesday night.

VFR. High cirrus persists through the period.

Light and variable flow through tonight, becoming N/NE after
12Z Tuesday as speeds increase toward 10 kt into early
afternoon.

 NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts possible late in the TAF period starting Tuesday evening.
Timing may be off a few hours.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Tuesday PM: VFR. NE gusts around 20 kt.

Wednesday-Thursday: VFR. NE gusts around 15-25 kt possible,
with the highest gusts at the coastal terminals.

Friday-Saturday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
A SE-S swell from the tropical systems out in the western Atlantic
will build over the next few days with seas over 5 ft on the ocean
waters starting tonight and likely lasting well into the week. The
pressure gradient also tightens Tuesday night into Wednesday with
gusts reaching advisory levels on all waters. Have extended the SCA
on the ocean to go through Wednesday afternoon for the time being.
Perhaps a couple of gusts to gale force could occur east of Moriches
Inlet late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, but not enough for
a Gale Watch at this time. Have also put up a SCA on the non ocean
waters for late Tues night through Wednesday afternoon due to gusts,
and in the case of eastern LI Sound, swells keeping seas elevated as
well.

The NE winds and gusts will be diminishing through Thursday as high
pressure become entrenched over the northeast. The non ocean waters
will be below advisory levels Thursday morning, with the ocean
waters falling below during the afternoon. However, ocean seas will
be slow to subside, not falling below 5 feet until during the day
Friday. Small Craft Advisories will likely be extended into Thursday
and Friday on the ocean waters with subsequent forecasts. Conditions
will then be sub advisory levels across the forecast waters through
Saturday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic issues expected this week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
With a continuous NE flow during mid week along with large
swells from Humberto and Imelda, total water levels and surf
will both be on the increase. Coastal flooding appears unlikely
as we will be in between moon phases, but high surf, dangerous
rip currents, and some minor oceanfront beach flooding/erosion
may be possible Wed/Thu.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight Tuesday night to 6 PM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/MET
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...JC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...