560
FXUS61 KOKX 030834
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
334 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry and mild through at least mid week, possibly longer.

2) Increasing likelihood for a wetting rain late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Aloft, a highly amplified flow will feature a longwave trough
over the Plains and an upper ridge working eastward. This will
result in unseasonably warm conditions through most of the week,
with temperatures at least 10-15 degrees above normal, possibly
15-20 degrees above normal in spots inland on Wed. Highs today
should reach the upper 60s to mid 70s, rise well into the 70s
from NYC north/west on Wed, and be mostly in the lower 70s on
Fri, while low temps gradually moderate from the 40s/lower 50s
today, to the mid 50s to lower 60s by Fri morning. There
numbers are slightly warmer than 00Z GFS MOS guidance and in
line with higher NBM percentiles.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
An approaching front may bring a chance of showers Thu
afternoon and night from the NYC metro are north/west. Then a
better chance for showers/tstms with moderate to locally heavy
rain will come daytime Fri into Fri night/early Sat morning as
the front stalls nearby, with one or more waves of low pressure
moving along it in response to another closed low forming over
the Great Lakes region and possibly phasing with srn stream
energy riding along the western flank of offshore upper ridging,
with moderate deep layer SW flow providing ample moisture
transport. Location of axis of heavy rain somewhat in question
in the deterministic model guidance, as the ECMWF places it
squarely over Long Island and S CT while the GFS remains mostly
offshore. Ensemble solutions suggest lesser likelihood of the
offshore solution, and with PW increasing to near 1.75 inches a
widespread 1-2 inch rainfall with local amts over 3 inches may
be possible. These amts may be capable of causing at least minor
nuisance/urban flooding, with some impact to the Fri
evening commute.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure remains centered off the Mid Atlantic coast
throughout the TAF period.

VFR.

Light SW flow with some outlying terminals going light and
variable to calm through the morning push. SW flow then develops
and persists through much of today at or just under 10 kt.
Winds will fall off slightly once again tonight.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled AMD expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tonight: VFR. Light SW winds.

Wednesday: VFR, SW to S winds.

Thursday: VFR more likely early, with the probability of MVFR or
lower higher late in the day and at night for showers with
MVFR or lower cond developing.

Friday: Sub VFR possible in showers. Thunder also possible.

Saturday: Improving to VFR early.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA cond forecast on all waters through Sat night. That
said, there is a low chance that seas on the near shore ocean
waters (especially out east) may approach 5 ft at some point
from Thu night into Sat as a frontal system impacts the waters,
preceded by a prolonged period of S-SW flow.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Goodman
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...Goodman