558
FXUS61 KOKX 290244
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1044 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Adjusted sky cover for Tuesday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Low pressure will continue to weaken and track away from the
area, with any remaining drizzle tapering off.

2) Water levels may approach minor coastal flood benchmarks the next
couple of days, especially along the south shore back bays of
Nassau and SW Suffolk on LI.

3) A warmup likely by the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Areas of drizzle, mainly across eastern areas, will taper off
from W to E tonight as the low exits. Patchy fog is possible as
well.

Model timeheights keep the stratus locked in thru at least Tue
mrng. The NBM may be too quick to clear things out. Cloudy in
the morning followed by decreasing clouds in the aftn may be a
more realistic outcome.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Water levels will continue to gradually fall the next couple of
days. While surge guidance falls below minor coastal flood
benchmarks tonight into Tuesday, a continued 2 ft easterly swell
could keep just enough water in the south shore back bays of Nassau
and SW Suffolk for water levels to approach or touch minor coastal
flood benchmarks. A coastal flood statement has been issued for this
area for tonight`s high tide cycle. Additionally, it is possible for
this to occur again Tuesday morning, and even across the SW coast of
CT during the afternoon high tide cycle. However, confidence is too
low at this time to issue additional statements for these later
cycles.


.KEY MESSAGE 3...
The modeling remains in good agreement that a quick warming
trend will impact the area Thu and Fri before a cold frontal
passage cools things off again. The NBM is trending up with
highs in the 70s and lower 80s, but 16-18C at h85 combined with
progged wly component winds would support highs near 90,
especially the usual warmer spots in NJ and NY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Weakening low pressure east of Long Island drifts into coastal
New England through Tuesday.

Mainly sub VFR into Tuesday morning. Cigs generally lower back
to MVFR into the overnight, with IFR possible. Areas of mist
and patchy fog may also restrict vsbys at times in the early
morning. Cigs gradually return to VFR by late Tue AM or early
PM.

Light N flow backs WNW or NW tonight, which then persists
through Tuesday. Speeds under 10 kt.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Cigs could bounce between VFR and MVFR at times overnight.

Vsbys may also lower with mist and patchy fog possible.

Timing of improvement Tuesday AM could be off by a couple of
hours.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday Night: VFR.

Wednesday through Friday: VFR.

Friday night and Saturday: Possible period of MVFR in SHRA Friday
night and Sat AM, otherwise mainly VFR Saturday.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
The SCA has been dropped for all but the cntrl and ern ocean
which remains in effect until midnight for lingering 4-6ft seas.
Otherwise, winds blw SCA lvls thru tngt with the weakening low
tracking away.

High pressure builds in through the middle of the week, keeping
winds and seas below SCA levels through Wed. There is a low
chance that SW winds increase to SCA lvls on the ocean Thu
and/or Fri ahead of the next cold front. Winds and seas are
modeled to remain blw SCA lvls on Sat.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ350-353.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...