143
FXUS61 KOKX 230128
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
928 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds overhead tonight then offshore Saturday. A
frontal system approaches Sunday evening and moves slowly
through the area Sunday night into Monday. High pressure then
gradually builds in for the middle to end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
High pressure will build overhead tonight, providing the region with
clear skies and dry conditions. Winds continue to diminish this
evening, becoming light and variable tonight. Low temperatures will
be in the upper 50s and 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Dry weather continues as high pressure remains offshore. As the high
moves further offshore, a frontal system approaches from the west.
Temperatures on Saturday will be in the lower to middle 80s.
Saturday night expect lows in the 60s. Lows Saturday night will be
slightly above normal. Clouds will increase late Saturday night
ahead of the approaching cold front.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Points:

* Shower/thunderstorm chances late Sunday into Monday. Mainly dry
  conditions Tuesday through Friday.

* Near normal temperatures on Sunday and Monday, then a slight
  cooldown to below normal highs from Tuesday onward.

There has been no significant change to the forecast thinking for
the extended period, and the global models remain in decent
agreement. Synoptic-scale ridging pushes east of the area Sunday
allowing for a deep southwest flow to develop ahead of a deepening
closed upper low over eastern Canada. This low over eastern Canada
extends an h5 trough over the eastern 2/3 of the CONUS then remains
over the east for much of the rest of the extended timeframe. This
will keep the local area in predominately west/southwest flow aloft
for much of the week.

At the sfc, a cold front approaches on Sunday into early Monday,
slowing as it does so, becoming parallel to the mid and upper flow.
Precipitation chances increase from west to east Sunday afternoon,
with a slower approach than in previous cycles, and most of the area
will remain precipitation free until later Sunday. PWATs do increase
to 1-1.75" ahead of the front, which suggests the possibility of
heavier rainfall with any deeper convection. Thunder chances have
decreased a bit, given the later timing of the approaching front,
with limited instability and better forcing north of the area.
North and west of NYC would see the best chance of thunder late
Sunday, and thus have constrained thunder chances there for that
timeframe. By Monday, the front moves through the area providing
another round of showers and embedded thunder. Given the slow
movement of the system in general, localized heavy rain may still be
possible, especially north and west of NYC. NBM probabilities of >2"
in 24 hours are <10% at this time, however, so not looking at any
widespread heavy rainfall.

The front pushes offshore by early Tuesday. High pressure then
builds back in from the Central Plains, for the remainder of the
period.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure gradually slides offshore Saturday into Saturday
night.

VFR through the period.

SW flow less than 10 kt overnight into Saturday AM, becoming S
10-15g20kt for most terminals in the afternoon. Gusts to 25 kt
likely for KJFK and KLGA in the late aft/eve with coastal jet
formation. S winds decreasing to 8 to 12 late evening.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

S 15-20g25kt likely btwn 20z thru 00z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Saturday Night: VFR.

Sunday and Monday: Scattered showers Sun PM through Mon PM, isolated
tstm possible in the aft/eve. MVFR cigs possible Sun AM, and
Sun night into Mon AM.

Tuesday and Wednesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
New wave guidance not significantly different than previous
forecast with no changes to the small craft advisories already
in place across the ocean zones.

High pressure builds in from the west as Hurricane Erin moves
further offshore.

Small Craft Advisories remain on the ocean waters west of Moriches
Inlet through midday Saturday, and east of Moriches Inlet through
the day Saturday, with the swells subsiding. There is a chance
small craft advisories could need extending with subsequent
forecasts into late Saturday and perhaps Saturday night, but
new wave guidance is marginal for SCA at just 5 ft for the ocean,
so it will be marginal.

Conditions then remain below advisory levels for all waters into
mid next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the middle of next
week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A High Risk for Rip Currents goes through Sunday for the
Atlantic Ocean beaches as swells continue to slowly subside.
Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for further
information on Erin.

High surf and dune erosion threat with 6 to 10 ft breakers will
gradually decrease overnight with beach erosion/flooding and
escarpment the primary threat for Sat high tides with a west to
east sweeping surf of 4 to 7 ft.

Generally minor coastal flooding threat continues for this
evening`s cycles with coastal flood advisories and coastal flood
statements in place. Localized minor coastal flooding
anticipated for early Saturday for South Shore Bays of Long
Island and Southern Westchester and Southern Fairfield
coastlines.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for NYZ071.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ074-
     075.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through Sunday evening for NYZ075-080-
     081-178-179.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for NYZ080-081-
     178-179.
     High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for NYZ080-081-179.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ006-
     106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ350.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/DBR
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...DBR
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...BC/JM/DBR
HYDROLOGY...BC/DBR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...