805
FXUS61 KOKX 211133
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
733 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Marine hazards updated with small craft advisories Tuesday into
Tuesday night for non-ocean zones. Gale watch expanded for some
non-ocean zones Wednesday. Ocean gale watches remain for
Tuesday night through Thursday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Intermittent rain tapers off early this morning as a cold
front pushes south of the area.

2) A weak wave of low pressure passes south of the area along
the front late tonight into Tuesday. Possible localized minor
coastal flooding for parts of eastern shoreline.

3) Prolonged period of gusty NE winds starting Tuesday and
through late in the week. Potential for high surf, dangerous rip
currents, beach erosion and some coastal flooding.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Remaining rain will be mainly light and intermittent across
parts of Long Island and coastal Connecticut into early this
morning. Thereafter, mainly dry conditions expected with gusty
northerly to northeasterly flow. Some breaks of sun will lead
to a relatively warmer day, but the highs are still expected to
average below normal. More clouds than sun overall expected
today.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Weak wave of low pressure along the cold front south of Long
Island approaches near the area late tonight into early Tuesday.
The chance for rain returns for this time period, mainly along
the coast.

Drying conditions late in the day Tuesday into midweek. Winds
pick up and become more gusty from a more NE direction. High
pressure moves into Southeast Canada and strengthens as
confluence increases in the mid levels.

Also, with increasing astronomical levels as we approach a full
moon, the fetch from the northeast flow may lead to some
localized minor coastal flooding for some parts of the eastern
coastline, particularly near Riverhead NY during time of high
tide.


.KEY MESSAGE 3...
A weakening mid level trough will eventually become cutoff and
linger in the Northeast for mid to late week.

At the surface, there will be a persistent pressure gradient
that will be setting up towards the mid to late week period.
This will have high pressure remaining centered well to the
north of the area with low pressure remaining to the south of
the area. This will drive a northeasterly flow that will build
fetch and seas.

Potential strong low offshore late in forecast period towards
the weekend may bring some possible heavy rain and even higher
gusty winds. However, there is a lot of uncertainty with this
and only the last few models runs have conveyed the stronger
offshore low compared to model runs from the previous day. We
could see gale to possibly storm force winds and perhaps
advisory level winds for near portions of the coast late
Thursday night through Friday night.

Gusty NE winds at the surface will keep temperatures cooler than
normal. Forecast highs are only in the 60s most locations through
mid to late week.

The easterly flow will mean more water itself from the building
fetch, adding to total water level forecasts. Ocean seas
forecast to reach in excess of 12 ft. There will be increasing
potential for high surf and associated ocean beach erosion mid
to late in the week.

Some surge guidance already indicating towards mid week with minor
to moderate coastal flooding with the increasing positive
departures. Astronomical levels will be increasing as we
approach a full moon on September 26th. Would anticipate
multiple high tide cycles with potential minor to moderate
coastal flooding mid to late week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure slowly builds into the region from the north as a
weak wave of low pressure departs east.

Most of the area terminals this morning are reporting MVFR
conditions, with some IFR conditions east of NYC. Conditions
will improve this morning with most if not all the terminals
returning to VFR by noon. The next chance for any sub-VFR
conditions will be early Tuesday morning at the NYC terminals as
another low pressure system impacts the terminals. Chances
remain low and will include in a PROB30 group, along with a low
end chance of some rain.

N winds start off around 10-15kt with gusts 20-25kt. Winds will
diminish late in the afternoon, remaining around 8-12kt through
the night. Wind direction becomes more northeasterly tonight and
gusts are expected to re-develop Tuesday morning with speeds
20-25kt once again.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments may be needed this morning for flight category
changes. Gusts may last longer than forecast.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Tuesday: Chance of MVFR or lower in showers. NE wind gusts 20-25
kt

Wednesday and Thursday: VFR. NE winds 20-30 kt, highest at the
coastal terminals.

Friday: MVFR or lower in showers. N-NE winds 15-20G30-40kt.
Highest gusts east of NYC and along the coast.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA for ocean (out to 20 nm) today through Tuesday. For Tuesday
and Tuesday night, all non-ocean waters have SCA. For ocean (20
to 60 nm), they have a gale watch starting Tuesday afternoon at
2PM EDT. For Tuesday night, all forecast ocean zones (out to 60
nm) have gale watch.

For Wednesday, Eastern LI Sound as well as Eastern LI Bays and
South Shore Bays of LI have a gale watch. The ocean zones for
all zones (out to 60 nm) continue Wednesday with gale watch.
While non-ocean waters have a slight decrease in forecast wind
gusts Wednesday night, that is not the case with the ocean. The
ocean stays in gale watch through Thursday.

Potential strong low offshore late in forecast period towards
the weekend may bring even higher gusty winds. Storm force winds
possible for outer ocean Friday into Friday night. Otherwise,
gales will likely continue for most waters.

Rip currents: Moderate today and high on Tuesday for the ocean
beaches. Waves build today into Tuesday and gain gradually a
more easterly component. The winds transition from more
northerly today to more northeasterly tonight into Tuesday.

The high risk of rip currents likely persists into late this
week with the building ocean swell as well as the swell
becoming more onshore.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents from Tuesday morning through Tuesday
     evening for NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 AM EDT Wednesday
     for ANZ331-332-340-345.
     Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon
     for ANZ331-332-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 PM EDT Wednesday
     for ANZ335-338.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.
     Gale Watch from Tuesday evening through Thursday afternoon for
     ANZ350-353-355.
     Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon
     for ANZ380-383-385.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JM