174
FXUS61 KOKX 071110
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
710 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Small Craft Advisory on the ocean was cancelled. Aviation also
updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Drier conditions early this week, with temperatures briefly
cooling into Monday.

2) Heat and humidity build mid to late week, with a return of
unsettled weather.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Mid level trough axis swings through today as surface low
pressure works through New England into the Canadian Maritimes.
Attendant cold front moves through locally into the early
afternoon, but conditions largely stay dry as W winds veer more
NW into late day behind the fropa.

Temperatures remain above normal today, though not nearly as
hot for interior areas, with highs generally around 80. Deep
mixing and a W/WNW wind to start the day should help coastal
locations get into the low to mid 80s, and maybe a touch hotter
in urban NE NJ.

Some energy with the trough coupled with the cold pool aloft
could spur a few showers toward the late afternoon, especially
across SE CT. Coverage with this appears isolated to widely
scattered though, and most should remain dry through the day.

High pressure then builds down from the north, moving overhead
into Tuesday. This will allow dry conditions to persist and
winds to lighten, with temperatures and humidity values quite
comfortable on Monday; highs ranging from the mid 70s to the low
80s.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Ridging settles over the East by midweek, and a warm, moist
flow around it should lead to building heat and humidity locally.

The increase in humidity could allow apparent temperatures to
approach heat headline criteria in some areas by late week, with
heat indices near 100F away from the coast both Thursday and
Friday, and air temperatures into the low to mid 90s.

The pattern may also become a bit more unsettled, with multiple
disturbances potentially rounding the ridge, increasing shower
and thunderstorm chances by late Wednesday, which then continues
each afternoon through next weekend. CSU MLP still signals at
least a marginal threat of severe weather in this period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cold front moves through today, followed by high pressure building
tonight into Monday morning.

Mainly VFR throughout the TAF period. Low chance of possible MVFR
ceilings late this afternoon/evening with a few isolated to
scattered showers, mainly for eastern terminals. Confidence of
occurrence remains too low to include in TAFs, except for KGON where
there is a TEMPO group for MVFR ceilings from 03 to 06z.

W-NW flow increases this morning, becoming 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25
kt late morning into the afternoon. Winds direction will have an
increasingly northerly component towards late afternoon and into the
evening, with mainly N winds towards 0z around 10 kt. Outlying
terminals winds diminish some later in the overnight closer to 5 kt
early Monday AM.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Onset of gusts this morning may be off by 1-2 hours.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Monday-Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday-Thursday: Mainly VFR. Chance of afternoon/evening showers
and isolated thunderstorms. SW wind gusts 20 kt possible
Wednesday.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Cancelled the Small Craft Advisory on the ocean as seas have
lowered below 5 ft, and are expected to remain around 3 to 4 ft
through the rest of the weekend.

Flow becomes W-NW later today behind a departing cold front.
High pressure then builds in through Tuesday, with winds and
seas remaining below SCA levels on all waters.

Wind and seas could begin to approach SCA criteria once again on
at least the ocean waters late Wednesday with the approach of a
frontal system.

Rip Currents...

There`s a moderate rip current risk at all local ocean beaches
today with a 10 to 15 kt flow parallel to the shoreline and a
4-ft 7-sec S swell.

By Monday, the rip current risk is low with the lingering S
swell falling to 3 ft at 6s and lightening winds.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DR
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...DR