898
FXUS61 KOKX 062141
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
541 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 281 in effect for most of the area
until 10 PM.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Severe thunderstorms are possible into this evening.

2) High rip current risk at the ocean beaches today.

3) Heat and humidity build again mid to late week, with a return
of unsettled weather.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGE 1...

...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 281 in effect for most of the area
until 10 PM...

A passing shortwave trough will help drag a cold front through
late today into this evening. A fast-moving line of severe
thunderstorms with a pre-frontal trough over eastern PA as of
530 PM will move into NW NJ and Orange County from 6-7 PM, then
cross the greater NYC metro area and the rest of the lower
Hudson Valley from 7-9 PM, and exit east later this evening.
MLCAPE per SPC mesoanalysis is increasing to 1000 J/kg while
unidirectional effective 0-6 km bulk shear increases to 30-40
kt. DCAPE is also increasing close to 1000 J/kg. Given these
parameters, potential exists for strongest storms to produce
wind gusts in excess of 70 mph mainly from NYC west. Given due
E-W trajectory severe storms (or at least a gust front with
damaging winds) may make it farther into S CT and Long Island
than is usually the case for this time of year.

PW increases to over 1.5 inch per latest HRRR, so it is possible
that heaviest storms could produce 0.75 to 1.5 inch of rain in
45 minutes to an hour as has been the case in central PA.
That could lead to significant localized flooding where it
occurs. Most places will see lesser amounts of 0.25 to 0.5
inch, with minor urban and poor drainage flooding.

Convection should clear ern CT/Long Island before midnight, with
drier conditions overnight into Sunday morning.

Another shortwave trough passing through Sunday afternoon could
still produce isolated to scattered showers and possibly a
tstm, with the better chances across SE CT.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
There is a high rip current risk today at the ocean beaches.
Increasing SW flow 15 to 20 kt and 3-to-4 ft swells at 8 sec
drive this threat. Additional detail in Marine section.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
The pattern could become a bit more unsettled mid to late week
as high pressure shifts offshore, and a warm, moist flow
develops around the ridge. With this, expect increasing humidity
with hot afternoons, and heat indices approaching 100F in some
areas by Friday. Additionally, with multiple disturbances
rounding the base of the upper level ridge, there will be
several periods with chances of showers and thunderstorms.
Details will become clearer on how strong these thunderstorms
can get as we head into the week, but it is worth noting that
the CSU-MLP Day 6-8 outlooks show a marginal risk of severe
weather.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A pre-frontal trough moves across the area this evening followed
by a cold front passage on Sunday.

Mainly VFR through the TAF period. Showers and thunderstorms
remain possible this evening. Arrival time appears to be
22z-00z for NYC terminals on N and W, 00z-02z, western Long
Island and southwest Connecticut terminals, and 02-04z for
eastern Long Island and southeast Connecticut. Strong, gusty
winds may accompany the showers/storms with a wind shift to the
W-NW and potential for brief gusts up to 50 kt. The
showers/storms should weaken as they move east of the NYC metro,
but gusty winds 35-45 kt possible.

Outside of showers/storms, SW winds 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25
kt this afternoon and early afternoon. Winds will veer to the
WSW-W tonight as wind speeds weaken to under 10 kt. W-NW flow
increases Sunday morning, becoming 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt
late morning into the afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

End times of frequent wind gusts may be off by 1-2 hours this
evening.

Amendments for timing of showers/thunderstorms this evening
likely. PROB30 could become TEMPO.

Gusts to 50 kt possible if any storms become severe.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday Afternoon-Night: VFR. Isolated shower/storm possible
eastern CT in the afternoon and evening. WNW-NW wind gusts 20-25
kt in the afternoon/early evening.

Monday-Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday-Thursday: Mainly VFR. Chance of afternoon/evening
showers and isolated thunderstorms. SW wind gusts 20 kt possible
Wednesday.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA issued for the Long Island south shore bays as SW winds
increase late this afternoon and gust up to 25 kt til close to
sunset. SCA also continues on the ocean waters into tonight,
with gusts up to 25 kt and seas build to 5 ft, peaking this
evening. That said, the bigger threat will be tstms this
evening, which could produce wind gusts over 35 kt.

Flow becomes W-NW on Sunday behind a departing cold front. Winds
and seas should both remain below SCA levels, with ocean seas
3-4 ft.

Rip Currents: There is a high rip current risk through this
evening for the ocean beaches. Increasing SW flow 15-20 kt and
3-4 ft swells at 8 sec drive this threat.

The threat lowers to moderate on Sunday given little wind
component and a 4-ft 7-sec S swell.

By Monday, the rip current risk will be low with the lingering S
swell falling to 2 ft at 6s.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>012.
NY...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ069>075-
     078>081-176>179.
     High Risk for Rip Currents until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BG/JT
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...BG