565
FXUS61 KOKX 290712
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
312 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An approaching cold front will move across the area this
afternoon into early this evening. High pressure returns this
weekend and will remain in control through the middle of next
week. A frontal system then approaches to end the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
An upper low over southeast Canada, part of a longwave trough
across eastern North America, will send a cold front across the
area this afternoon into early this evening. The front will be
preceded by a pre-frontal trough. The challenge to the forecast
today is the amount of drying in the low-levels in a deep-layered
SW flow. The best moisture and instability will reside across
eastern LI and SE CT, lessening to the west. In fact, dry air
may be enough of a limiting factor to keep the Lower Hudson
Valley, NE NJ, and NYC mainly dry. MLCAPE values will likely be
low across these areas with dew points in the lower 50s and
perhaps even lower. While across eastern LI and SE CT, SPC HREF
MUCAPE values are 500-1000 J/KG. Not expecting any severe
storms. Better organization should be to the north and east of
the area across eastern New England. HREF mean QPF showing some
pockets of heavier rain across SE CT, in particular across New
London, where there is a 30% probability of an inch/3hr. CAMs
show best timing to be in the late morning/early afternoon with
the pre-frontal trough with another chance with the cold front
late afternoon/early evening. However, the environment may be
too stable by the time the cold front arrives due to the
aforementioned dry air. Thus, expect widely scattered showers,
possibly thunder, across western areas, with scattered to
numerous coverage far east. By no means will this be a washout
with the emphasis on small windows of time for the convection.

Highs today will remain a few degrees below normal in the mid
70s to around 80.

Behind the front this evening, skies will become mostly clear
with the arrival of cooler air on a NW flow. Lows tonight will
be as much as 5 to 10 degrees below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
For the weekend, the upper low slowly departs to the northeast
with a large area of high pressure expanding from the upper
Midwest to the Mid Atlantic and Northeast states. Clear skies
and low humidity will be accompanied by temperatures several
degrees below normal. NBM was followed for daytime highs, with
the NBM 25th percentile blended in across the cooler Pine
Barrens region of LI for overnight lows.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The NBM/previous forecast was followed with no changes.

Key Points:

* High pressure will remain over the region Monday through
  Wednesday, with dry and cool conditions. Temperatures will be more
  like mid-September.

* Chance for precipitation returns on Thursday and Friday as an
  upper level trough and associated cold front approach and move
  into the region.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A weak trough will move across the terminals early this morning.
A cold front will follow later in the day.

VFR with S flow 10-15 kt along the coast and less than 10 kt inland.
Sct showers will be possible east of NYC through 09z.

Winds become SW early this morning and then W inland by late morning
or afternoon, with S-SW sea breeze development along the coast.
Have introduced chance of showers and possible tstms to
KISP/KBDR/KGON during the late morning and afternoon. Cannot rule
out showers and possible tstms with fropa after about 20Z. Chances
for showers NYC and west remain too low to include in the TAF.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of wind shifts daytime Fri uncertain. Can`t entirely rule
out a late day shower or tstm with fropa after 20Z Fri.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday night through Tuesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
A SW flow on the waters will gradually weaken this morning with
a few gusts to around 20 kt early. Seas on the ocean will
initially be around 4 ft, but will be on the downswing. High
pressure will then build across the waters following a cold
frontal passage this evening and remain into early next week.
Conditions will remain below SCA levels during this time.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the end of next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A moderate risk of rip currents continues today with an incoming
wind wave of 3-4 ft at around 5 seconds. The risk may lower to
low during the afternoon at the NYC, southern Nassau County, and
Southwestern Suffolk beaches as wind waves lower.

There will be a low risk at the ocean beaches Saturday with 2 foot
wind waves at less than 5 seconds.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...//
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...DW/BC
HYDROLOGY...DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...//