498
FXUS61 KOKX 031430
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1030 AM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure continues to shift offshore and weaken tonight. A
series of fronts will move through the region Thursday night
through Sunday. High pressure builds in from the west Sunday and
lingers into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Surface high pressure over the area will continue to shift east and
weaken as a deep upper trough develops over the Great Lakes.
Expect dry conditions with mostly clear skies. Light and
variable winds expected to become S/SE by afternoon, though
remaining generally under 10-15 mph. Highs today will be in the
upper 70s to near 80.

The deepening trough over the Great Lakes will allow mid-level
heights to actually rise a bit over the area overnight and provide
for a SW flow through the entire column. These higher heights and SW
flow will allow for slightly warming temperatures aloft and an
increase in boundary layer moisture.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A subtle increase in temperatures is expected Thursday and Friday as
persistent SW flow will advect low level moisture into the area with
rising heights providing for warmer 850mb temperatures to mix down
during the afternoons. Highs Thursday will be in the upper 70s/low
80s with Friday warming to the low to middle 80s across the region.

Mid-level energy rounds the base of the trough and pushes a cold
front through the area Thursday night and into Friday. This will
bring the chance for showers and thunderstorms, with the best chance
for seeing any rainfall being the northwest portions of the area,
mainly during Thursday evening and overnight. Any showers are
expected to dissipate by Friday morning.

The cold front washes out along the Northeast coastline on Friday
resulting in mostly dry conditions expected, though temperatures
will be warmer.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
No significant changes for the long term, so the NBM was closely
followed.

The long term period starts with the region under the SE peripheral
influence of an anomalously deep (3-4 std) closed upper low across
Ontario into the upper Great Lakes, and its associated longwave
trough. The trough will slowly lift NE into Canada through the
weekend with a transition to a zonal upper flow to start the
week, and then heading into midweek western Atlantic ridging
builds up the east coast ahead of the remnant upper low from
Lorena deepening over the Central US.

At the surface, an associated cold front approaches the region on
Saturday, crossing Sat evening, with a secondary cold frontal
passage later Sunday. Slightly above seasonable temps on Saturday
with S/SW flow ahead of approaching cold front. The deep southerly
flow between offshore ridging and troughing to the NW will allow a
bit of southern moisture to work into the area ahead of front,
developing a high shear-low CAPE environment. Low predictability
this far out on timing of shortwave energy into the area, but
potential for some thunderstorm activity along the front/pre-frontal
trough Sat aft/eve, although early indication that most activity
with the front could be post-frontal and more-so to the NW of the
region with best forcing displaced well NW of the region.

The NW displacement of the trough will make for a slow progress of
the cold front through the region Sat Night into Sunday morning,
likely not cleanly pressing through until Sun aft with trough axis
passage and secondary cold front. This could set off a few showers
on Sunday as well. Temps falling to near or slightly below
seasonable on Sunday.

In the wake of secondary passage, moderating Canadian surface high
pressure builds in from the west early next week, bringing slightly
below seasonable temps and dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure remains over the region through tonight. High
pressure moves offshore tomorrow, with a cold front approaching
from the west.

Light and variable winds become S/SE by midday around 5-10 kt.
Winds become light and variable again tonight.

Prevailing VFR conditions through this afternoon. There is a
low chance of low stratus and patchy fog to develop late tonight
into the early morning hours tomorrow with an onshore flow, but
confidence remains low. The best chances are across the eastern
Long Island and southern Connecticut.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No amendments expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Thursday: VFR during the day with S gusts 20-25kt in the late
afternoon. MVFR or lower possible in showers and isolated
thunderstorms at night.

Friday: MVFR or lower possible in any showers and isolated
thunderstorms mainly in the morning. S gusts 20-25kt.

Saturday: Mainly VFR. Low chance of MVFR in showers.

Sunday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected through early
Thursday. There is then potential for some 25 knot gusts ahead of an
approaching cold front Thursday night, especially for the
western ocean zone. There will then likely be a lull in the
gusts until Friday afternoon where there is a more widespread
chance of 25 kt gusts.

Marginal SCA gusts possible and SCA ocean seas into likely Fri
Night into Sat in S/SW flow ahead of approaching cold front.
Winds will likely subside Sat afternoon into evening and then
shift NW Sat Night, with seas falling below SCA.

Sub-SCA conditions likely Sun (outside of 20 kt NW gusts in wake of
secondary cold frontal passage Sun aft/eve) into Mon as high
pressure builds into the waters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Weakening high pressure will remain across the area today, ahead
of an approaching frontal system on Thursday.

SE to S winds of 5 to 10 this morning into afternoon. Occasional
higher gusts possible in the afternoon. Min RH values fall into
the 30 to 40 percent range this afternoon across the interior
and 40 to 50 percent range for the coast.

On Thursday, SE winds increase to 10 to 20 mph with gusts 20-25 mph,
highest along the coast, with min RH values in the 50 to 60
percent range.

Next chance of rain, potentially wetting rain, is Thursday
evening, with a slight chance of thunderstorms. KBDI values are
running 200 to 500 across the CWA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
At this time there are no hydrologic concerns through early next
week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a borderline low-moderate rip current risk today from
residual ESE swells of 3 ft at 8 seconds, likely lowering to a
low risk on Thursday as easterly swells continue to fall to 2
ft.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...BR
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BR/MW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...