554
FXUS61 KOKX 231126
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
626 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the area moves offshore today as a weak
frontal system passes to the north. Another high builds in from
the west tonight, moving offshore Monday night. A frontal
system then approaches from the west. The associated warm front
moves across Tuesday night with the cold front moving across
Wednesday night. Then the low with this system strengthens and
slows down as it goes to Southeast Canada with high pressure
staying to the south and west of the area towards late in the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
With nearly clear skies and light to calm winds temperatures
have fallen several degrees lower than forecast. With a
significant departure updated for the current conditions.

High pressure moves offshore today as a weak clipper system
tracks well to the north across southeastern Canada. This low
will bring a weak warm front across the northern portions of the
region this afternoon, followed quickly by a surface trough or
weak cold front. Moisture will be limited, and forcing will be
weak and mainly to the north. Have maintained a dry forecast,
although CAMs are showing the possibility of a few showers
approaching Orange County this afternoon, and a few light
showers/sprinkles are possible across the higher elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The low tracks into the Canadian Maritime and northern New
England early this evening as surface high pressure builds in
from the west. This high moves over the area Monday, and
offshore Monday night. Winds and gusts increase in the cold
advection late tonight into Monday and trended higher with the
winds and gusts, using a blend of the NBM deterministic and 90th
percentile. By Monday mid afternoon winds and gusts diminish as
the high builds over the region and the gradient weakens.
Temperatures from the NBM look reasonable, but did blend in
some of the global guidance for Monday night to trend lower in
the outlying regions as winds quickly become light during Monday
evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Points:

* Rain event with a frontal system late Tuesday into Wednesday
  night.

* Very breezy and seasonably cold Thanksgiving through Friday
  night.

Mid level quasi-zonal flow expected Tuesday through Tuesday
night. Then a longer wavelength trough sets up west of the area
that will approach for midweek. Trough with its axis moves in
Thursday into Friday. A quasi-zonal flow resumes thereafter.

At the surface, a warm front approaches Tuesday and moves across
Tuesday night. Then, region is in the warm sector Wednesday. A
cold front moves across Wednesday night. Thanksgiving Day will
be when a much colder airmass moves into the region. Parent low
pressure deepens in Southeast Canada. High pressure remains well
south and west of the region. The same positional setup remains
heading into late week with low pressure northeast of the
region and high pressure centered southwest of the region. This
high pressure area starts to build in for the start of next
weekend.

Main rain event, late Tuesday into Wednesday night with that
frontal system traversing the local area. Mainly dry
thereafter.

For the model data, used the national blend of models but
incorporated the NBM 50th, 75th and 90th percentiles. For winds
and gusts trended higher, and used the 90th percentile NBM
Wednesday night through Friday. Went with a colder temperature
solution Thursday through Friday and higher winds especially
over the land Thursday through Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure gives way to a weak cold front this
afternoon/evening.

VFR expected to prevail throughout the TAF period. There is
potential for light showers and pockets of brief MVFR conditions
with ceilings as low as 025-030 ft mainly in the afternoon, but
confidence remains too low to include in the TAF for most
terminals.

Winds mainly light variable in direction to SW through mid-
morning, then eventually increasing 10-15 kt with gusts around
20 kt late today while veering west. Some uncertainty regarding
how much sustained winds and gusts drop off tonight.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Start time of gusts may be off an hour or two, and gusts may be
more occasional than frequent, especially tonight.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Monday: VFR. W-NW gusts 20-25kt through early afternoon.

Tuesday: VFR, becoming MVFR late in the day with rain becoming
likely in the afternoon. Rain at night with MVFR/IFR. Chc S-SW gusts
20-25 kt in the afternoon and evening.

Wednesday: Chance of MVFR and showers, otherwise mostly VFR.

Thursday: VFR. W flow with gusts 25-30kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-advisory conditions prevail through today as high pressure
moves offshore and a weak frontal system passes to the north.
SCA conditions become likely as another high builds in from the
west and west to northwest winds and gusts increase tonight into
Monday. A SCA has been issued for the ocean waters and south
shore bays, and the far eastern Sound for late this evening
through Monday afternoon. However, marginal gusts are possible
on the far eastern Sound waters. With the high moving through
the area Monday night into Tuesday conditions will be sub
advisory on all the waters. The ocean start to trend higher for
forecast seas Tuesday night, getting to SCA levels that
continue into Wednesday. By late Wednesday night through
Thursday night, widespread SCA level seas are forecast for all
ocean zones. Even the Long Island Sound has portions of their
seas getting to SCA levels Thursday into Thursday night with the
forecast. Forecast wind gusts become increasingly widespread at
SCA levels Wednesday night through Thursday night eventually
for all waters. Potential for gales on the ocean Thursday night
through Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic impacts expected through this week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 PM EST
     Monday for ANZ332-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JM/MET
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JM/MET
HYDROLOGY...JM/MET