233
FXUS61 KOKX 170757
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
357 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front over the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes this
morning will work east today, passing through the area this
evening. Weak high pressure builds in Friday into Friday night and
then offshore Saturday. A frontal system will impact the region
Saturday night and Sunday. High pressure builds in for early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Multiple MCVs/convective complexes this morning from the Great
Lakes east to the NJ coast will get absorbed into the shortwave
trough lifting across the Northeast this morning into this
afternoon. The lead complex along the NJ coast continues to
dissipate with a few discrete cells out to the east, mainly to
the waters south of LI. Another complex was working into SE PA,
tracking ENE. Airmass across area is moderately unstable and
this will have to be watched as it works toward the area toward
daybreak. CAMs generally in agreement for the system to weaken
as it approaches the area. The question is will there be enough
lift to overcome stable low-levels. Scattered showers and
embedded thunderstorms will remain a possibility through mid
morning. Any storms will be progressive due to a strengthening
mid-level WSW.

Expect a respite late morning into the early afternoon before a
pre-frontal trough enters the picture. For the most past, CAMs
showing little if any convection with the 00Z NSSL WRF the most
aggressive in swinging a broken line through the area during
the mid to late afternoon hours. Weakening mid-levle lapse
rates and drying moisture profiles all point to limited activity
this afternoon/early this evening with mainly isolated to
widely scattered convection. There is moderate instability with
increasing DCAPE this afternoon and 35-40kt of mid-level flow.
SPC has the much of the area in a marginal risk for an isolated
severe threat. Expect cold front to come through dry evening,
but perhaps something isolated.

A heat advisory remains up for the entire forecast area through
10 pm this evening. It will be another hot and humid day with
heat indices around 100 for most locales, with a few spots up to
102-103. Used a blend of the NBM with CONSALL as dew points
should fall some this afternoon with a drying vertical moisture
profile as winds veer more westerly. NBM deterministic
temperatures have been trending upward with a drying airmass and
many locations will top out at or above 90 away from the south
shore and twin forks of LI. Record highs are not expected. KEWR
will likely get to around 95.

SW winds will become gusty late this morning into this afternoon
with gusts of 20 to 30 mph. NBM seems to have been playing
catchup with the winds and leaned toward the 90th percentile and
even a bit higher. This is supported by 00Z NAM and GFS upper
air soundings. Winds will shift to the W/NW behind the cold
front this evening.

Lows behind the front will be cooler, but still several degrees
above normal. What will be even more noticeable will be the drier
airmass filtering into the region overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure builds in Friday into Friday night and then
offshore on Saturday ahead of an approaching frontal system.
Highs will be closer to normal during this time. It will be much
more comfortable with a dry airmass in place Friday into Friday
night, with increasing humidity on Saturday due to a southerly
flow. Rain chances will also be on the increase Saturday
afternoon into Saturday night as a warm front approaches from
southwest, passing to the north overnight. Best chance for rain
at this time will be at night. Some thunder is possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Humidity levels will be increasing with dew points rising back
into the lower 70s Sunday following a warm frontal passage. A
chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue on Sunday
along and ahead of a cold front. The cold front passes Sunday
late afternoon/evening and will bring somewhat drier air. High
pressure follows early next with temperatures at or just below
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A trough of low pressure will remain nearby today. A cold front
will approach late today and pass through this evening.

VFR to start at all but KGON where LIFR cigs prevail, and as was
the case yesterday should lift very slowly after daybreak
through around midday.

Cluster of showers/tstms approaching from SE PA may impact the
terminals between 09Z-13Z, mainly as showers as the area
continues to weaken.  There could also be a late day tstm with
gusty winds ahead of the approaching cold front after about 20Z,
but coverage too sparse to mention in fcst. This could change
with later fcsts especially for the inland terminals.

SW winds should pick up through the morning and increase to
15-20 kt with gusts 20-25 kt. Cant rule out a stray gust up to
30 kt at the NYC metros.

Front passes through early this evening with winds becoming
W-NW and diminishing, but still with some gusts up to 20 kt.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

AMD possible to fine tune timing and impact of cluster of
approaching showers/tstms from about 09Z-12Z.

SW winds could briefly gust up to 30 kt late this afternoon.

An isolated tstm may also be possible late this afternoon from
about 20Z-22Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Late tonight: VFR. NW winds G15-20kt.

Friday and Saturday: Mainly VFR.

Saturday night and Sunday: Showers likely, chance of tstms. MVFR
or lower cond likely.

Monday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
A strengthening SW flow will bring a period of marginal SCA
conditions to the ocean waters east of Fire Island Inlet late
this afternoon into the overnight. The remaining waters may see
some occasional nearshore gusts up to 25 kt this afternoon. High
pressure builds in Friday into Friday night. Conditions remain
below SCA thresholds through Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Hydrologic impacts are not expected through the middle of next
week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
With a strengthening southwest flow today, the risk for rip
current development will be moderate, and waves will be 2 to
3 feet. A moderate rip current risk will continue into Friday
with winds from the northwest to west and a remaining southerly
swell.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>012.
     Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for CTZ009-010.
NY...Heat Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for NYZ067>075-
     078>081-176>179.
NJ...Heat Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT
     Friday for ANZ350-353.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...MET/DW
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...DW
HYDROLOGY...DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...//