319
FXUS61 KOKX 171152
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
752 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front over the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes this
morning will work east today, passing through the area this
evening. Weak high pressure builds in Friday into Friday night and
then offshore Saturday. A frontal system will impact the region
Saturday night and Sunday. High pressure builds in for early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Multiple MCV`s from the Great Lakes east to the NJ coast will
get absorbed into the shortwave trough lifting across the
Northeast this morning into this afternoon. The lead complex off
the NJ coast and another crossing the NYC metro area continue
to weaken, so expect no more than a few morning sprinkles
through early afternoon before a pre-frontal trough enters the
picture. For the most past, CAM`s show little if any convection,
with the 00Z NSSL WRF the most aggressive in swinging a broken
line through the area during the mid to late afternoon.
Weakening mid level lapse rates and drying moisture profiles all
point to limited activity this afternoon/early this evening,
with mainly isolated to widely scattered convection. There is
moderate instability with increasing DCAPE this afternoon and
35-40kt of mid-level flow. SPC has the much of the area in a
marginal risk for an isolated severe threat. Expect cold front
to come through perhaps with something isolated.

A heat advisory remains up for the entire forecast area through
10 PM. It will be another hot and humid day with heat indices
around 100 for most locales, with a few spots up to 102-103.
Used a blend of the NBM with CONSALL as dew points should fall
some this afternoon with a drying vertical moisture profile as
winds veer more westerly. NBM deterministic temperatures have
been trending upward with a drying air mass, and many locations
will top out at or above 90 away from the south shore and twin
forks of Long Island. Record highs are not expected. KEWR will
likely get to around 95.

SW winds will become gusty late this morning into this afternoon
with gusts 20-30 mph. NBM seems to have been playing catchup
with the winds and leaned toward the 90th percentile and even a
bit higher. This is supported by 00Z NAM and GFS upper air
soundings. Winds will shift to the W-NW behind the cold front
this evening.

Lows behind the front will be cooler, but still several degrees
above normal. What will be even more noticeable will be the drier
air mass filtering into the region overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure builds in Friday into Friday night and then
offshore on Saturday ahead of an approaching frontal system.
Highs will be closer to normal during this time. It will be much
more comfortable with a dry airmass in place Friday into Friday
night, with increasing humidity on Saturday due to a southerly
flow. Rain chances will also be on the increase Saturday
afternoon into Saturday night as a warm front approaches from
southwest, passing to the north overnight. Best chance for rain
at this time will be at night. Some thunder is possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Humidity levels will be increasing with dew points rising back
into the lower 70s Sunday following a warm frontal passage. A
chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue on Sunday
along and ahead of a cold front. The cold front passes Sunday
late afternoon/evening and will bring somewhat drier air. High
pressure follows early next with temperatures at or just below
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front over the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes this
morning will work east today, passing through the area this
evening.

VFR to start at all but KGON where VLIFR cond prevail, and as
was the case yesterday should lift slowly through late this
morning.

There could be a late day tstm ahead of the approaching cold
front at any time from about 20Z through 02Z, but coverage
too sparse and location too uncertain to warrant mention.

SW winds should pick up through the morning and increase to
15-20 kt with gusts 20-25 kt. Cant rule out a stray gust up to
30 kt at the NYC metros.

Front passes through early this evening with winds becoming
W-NW and diminishing, but still with some gusts close to 20 kt.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

SW winds could briefly gust up to 30 kt late this afternoon.

An isolated shower or tstm nay be possible from about 21Z-02Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Friday and Saturday: VFR.

Saturday night and Sunday: Showers likely, chance of tstms.
MVFR or lower cond likely.

Monday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Strengthening SW flow will bring a period of marginal SCA cond
to the ocean waters E of Fire Island Inlet late this afternoon
into the overnight. The remaining waters may see some occasional
near shore gusts up to 25 kt this afternoon. High pressure will
build in on Friday, with cond remaining below SCA thresholds
from then through Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Hydrologic impacts are not expected through the middle of next
week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
With strengthening SW flow today, the risk for rip current
development will be moderate, and surf height will be 2-3 ft.
The moderate risk will continue into Friday, with winds from the
NW-W and a remaining S swell.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>012.
     Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for CTZ009-010.
NY...Heat Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for NYZ067>075-
     078>081-176>179.
NJ...Heat Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT
     Friday for ANZ350-353.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BG