565
FXUS61 KOKX 140802
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
402 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal wave will pass to the south today. High pressure builds in
from the northeast tonight into Sunday. Weak high pressure will then
remain in place through at least Monday. A nearly stationary
front remains Tuesday with a wave of low pressure affecting the
region. The front moves north as a warm front Tuesday night,
passing north during Wednesday. A cold front moves through the
region Thursday night. High pressure builds in Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A frontal wave passes to the south today and will bring cloudy and
wet conditions to the area. Showers are already ongoing and coverage
is expected to increase heading into the morning hours. Moisture
increases as the frontal boundary slowly drifts closer to the area,
with pwat values expected to reach just below 2 inches. This
moisture combined with lift provided by the right rear quadrant of
an upper level jet and some subtle disturbances moving through a
mostly zonal 500mb flow will continue to result in showers. No
thunderstorms are expected given only limited and shallow MUCAPE.
However, a rumble of thunder can not be completely ruled out.
Although thunder is not expected, there could be some low topped
convective activity that can produce heavy downpours given the
anomalously high moisture. At this time no hydrologic impacts are
expected. The steadier and heavier rain will likely be in the
morning hours. In the afternoon, coverage and intensity are expected
to decrease. Totals are about half an inch for NYC, northeast NJ and
Long Island with 0.25 to 0.50 inches for the Lower Hudson Valley and
southern CT. Locally higher amounts up to an inch are possible.

The frontal wave will pull the boundary farther offshore tonight and
high pressure will start nosing in from the northeast. As drier air
filters in, PoPs decrease, but still remain slight chance/chance
through the night.

NBM was followed for temperatures giving highs in the 60s and lows
in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure continues to build in from the northeast on Sunday.
PoPs continue to decrease with a dry day expected for the most part,
especially for eastern Long Island and eastern CT. Confidence in
also increasing in some breaks of sun for these eastern areas and
have lowered sky cover just a bit. Given this, also upped
temperatures a few degrees in these areas. Otherwise NBM was
followed for temps through this time period.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A nearly stationary front remains south of the region Tuesday as
another wave of low pressure moves along the boundary with a chance
of showers by late day. With the approach of a trough and surface
low moving through the upper Midwest and into southern Canada
Tuesday night into Wednesday, the front is expected to beginning
moving to the north as a warm front, and likely pass to the north
during Wednesday. A cold front approaching during Thursday and
passes through the area Thursday night. While there will be slight
to chance probabilities of rainfall Tuesday into Wednesday night,
the best chances for rainfall will be with the cold front
approaching during the day Thursday, and currently forecast to pass
through the region Thursday night. Precipitable water values
increase to around 1.75 inches, and there will be surface based and
elevated CAPE in place. With a warm and unstable airmass ahead of
the front, there is the potential for thunderstorms, some of which
may produce briefly heavy rainfall.
At this time the storms will be moving rather quickly, and training
is not expected, so hydrologic impacts are not expected. An
amplifying ridge across the central United States Thursday night
approaches for Friday and into the beginning of next weekend. With
no targets of opportunity have used the deterministic NBM through
the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A stationary front remains south of the area, across the Mid
Atlantic region and well south of Long Island as a weak low moves
along the boundary through today. The front may move farther to the
south, with low pressure exiting, this evening into tonight. High
pressure builds into the region from the northeast late tonight.

Low to moderate confidence forecast with the timing of flight
category changes into this morning, and for timing of showers.

VFR through most of the overnight with a chance of showers, and MVFR
conditions late, and toward sunrise. Showers and IFR conditions
become more likely early this morning. There is a  chance that
northern terminals remain MVFR. Showers are expected to become much
more widely scattered by 20Z so there may be some improvements back
up to MVFR briefly into the late afternoon with IFR becoming
possible again after 00Z Sunday, especially near the coast.

E winds less than 10kt become more NE this morning, and increase to
10-14kt. NE winds continue into this evening around 10kt.


    NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments likely through this morning for timing of changing flight
categories.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Late tonight: Lowering chances of showers. MVFR to IFR likely.

Sunday - Monday: Slight chance of showers, mainly from the New York
City terminals and west, with MVFR to IFR possible at times.
Otherwise VFR.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, slight chance of showers late day into the
night, with a chance of MVFR to IFR.

Wednesday: Mostly VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms with a
period of sub-VFR.


Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
An easterly wind will bring waves to 5 ft on the ocean waters.
Stuck closer to WaveWatch as NWPS seemed a bit low given a
sustained wind at 15-20 kt for several hours. A Small Craft
Advisory has been issued for tonight. Otherwise, sub SCA
conditions expected through Monday night.

Winds and seas remain below SCA levels across the forecast waters
Tuesday through Thursday. With the approach of a cold front
Thursday, passing through the waters Thursday night, southwest to
west winds will be increasing. By later Thursday night wind gusts on
the ocean waters east of Fire Island Inlet  may approach SCA levels,
and ocean seas may build to near 5 feet.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected Tuesday through the end of the
week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Sticking with moderate risk of rip currents for ocean beaches today.
Some uncertainty in exact strength and direction of winds which in
turn will affect wave heights and direction. If winds end up more
northerly than forecast, the rip current activity will likely be
lower and the risk may be updated during the day.

Winds will be more easterly on Sunday an around 10 kt. An E wave
component around 4 ft at 6s will result in a low risk of rip current
activity.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Sunday
     for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MET/JT
NEAR TERM...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MET/JT
HYDROLOGY...MET/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JT