247
FXUS61 KOKX 150020
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
820 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes were made to the forecast during this
update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry and sunny conditions through mid week. No hazardous
weather expected.

2) A couple of chances of rain in the mid to long term starting
Thursday night. Limited to no impacts expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
N winds will continue to diminish tonight under clear skies as
high pressure builds in from the west. The light winds and clear
skies will promote good radiational cooling. Temps tonight will
be on the cooler side of the guidance, with 40s inland and in
the Long Island Pine Barrens and the 50s elsewhere. The forecast
low of 57 at Central Park would be the first time the low temp
there has been below 60 since June 16th. Tue should also be on
the cooler side, with highs in the lower 70s. As high pressure
slides offshore, temps should moderate to a few deg above normal
for Wed and Thu, with highs from the mid 70s to lower 80s.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
A cold front is progged to pass through during Thursday night.
Low chance of rain during this period, and with the loss of
CAPE, no thunder expected. Rain threat should be done by the
Friday morning commute with the cold front offshore by this
time.

Some disagreement among models regarding what would be another
cold front passage this weekend. Most likely time of its
passage would be Sunday morning, but its possible it lingers
over or near us into Monday. Rain chances kept below 50%
Saturday night through Monday. Any instability would probably be
limited, so while it`s too early to have high confidence, severe
weather and flooding chances so far appear to be very low to
none.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure remains in control through the TAF period.

VFR.

N winds will continue to diminish this evening to less than
10kt, gradually veering the the NE. Light NE-ENE winds in the
morning will continue to veer to the S-SE at 5 to 10kt.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday Night-Thursday: VFR.

Thursday Night-Friday: Mainly VFR. Low probability of a shower.

Saturday: VFR.

Saturday Night: Showers may bring MVFR conditions.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Northerly winds gradually diminish overnight as high pressure
builds in from the west. Winds and waves otherwise stay below
SCA through the forecast period.

Rip Currents: There is a low rip current risk for the ocean
beaches through Wednesday. SE swells will be limited with
lighter winds Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC/Goodman
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JC/Goodman