847
FXUS61 KOKX 151130
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
630 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure nearby shifts offshore today, as a warm front
approaches from the south and west. The front lifts through the
region into this evening, with an attendant cold front moving
through tonight. The departing system exits into the Canadian
Maritime on Sunday, with high pressure building back in from the
west through mid next week. A frontal system may then impact
the region Thursday into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Ridging briefly builds in today with surface high pressure in place.
Northern branch shortwave dives south from Ontario, breaking down
the ridging and carving out a trough over the Northeast into the
latter half of the weekend.

After the cold, frosty start with most in the 20s and 30s,
temperatures rebound into the upper 40s this afternoon. Conditions
remain dry through the day with the ridging, though cloud cover
thickens and lowers late as a warm front approaches from the
southwest. Flow turns SW or S this afternoon as the surface high
drifts off the Jersey shore, and WAA then continues as the warm
front moves through and temperatures rise into the 50s through
the evening. Rain overspreads generally from west to east after
sunset, with showers developing into the NYC metro by early evening.
Can`t entirely rule out a few embedded rumbles of thunder with
the activity, 00Z HREF indicates max elevated instability (MUCAPE)
of a hundred joules or two. Attendant cold front with the system
sweeps east after midnight, and likely brings a quick moving
band of showers along and just ahead of it. Conditions then dry
out overnight into Sunday AM.

The system is rather progressive, and duration and rates should
keep QPF relatively low, a few tenths for NYC, NE NJ, and the
lower Hudson Valley, and up to a half inch or so across LI and
SE CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
In the wake of the exiting frontal system, increasing flow and
CAA as the low deepens into the Canadian Maritimes and high
pressure builds in from the west.

WNW winds increase Sunday morning, gusting 30 to 35 mph across
the region through the day. Likely see a few gusts top 40 mph
with the well mixed BL, though appears to fall shy of Wind
Advisory at this time. The flow weakens just slightly by Monday,
but remaining gusty nonetheless, 25 to 30 mph during the
afternoon. Blended in NBM90th for much of this period`s wind
gusts.

High temperatures on Sunday likely occur overnight into the
early morning, before remaining steady or falling a few degrees
through the day with the cold gusty wind. Monday will be
the colder day, into the mid 40s for most, but with the winds
should feel like the 30s much of the day.

Can`t rule out a few streamers making it into the local area
from the northwest with cyclonic flow off the Lakes on Sunday,
but confidence in coverage and occurrence too low at this point
to include in forecast. Impacts minimal regardless outside any
brief heavier shower. Otherwise, predominantly dry weather
expected through early week.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key points:

* The winds diminish Tuesday with light to calm winds into mid week.

* Temperatures below normal through Wednesday, moderating to normal
  Thursday, and slightly above normal Friday.

* Likely dry through at least Thursday afternoon with rain chances
  increasing for Thursday night and Friday. Too early to have any
  confidence regarding impacts.

Relatively high confidence forecast through Thursday. Uncertainty
increases Thursday night into Friday surrounding the track and
timing of low pressure that would appear to pass to our north at
some point late in the week. Did not stray from NBM during this
period. NBM is reasonably close to AI GEFS and AI EPS regarding
track and timing as implied by NBM wind fields. With that said, it
appears that the global deterministic models may have just started
converging on a solution with a slower timing of the system and its
potential impacts.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure centers over the area this morning. This high then
exits as a low moves to the north with a frontal system approaching
later today into tonight.

VFR through this afternoon, then MVFR prevails with some IFR
possible Saturday evening as rain moves in associated with the
approaching low. There is some uncertainty in timing and in the
flight category forecasts. Improvement to VFR should begin towards
08-09z Sun for the city terminals with some pockets of MVFR perhaps
lingering briefly, especially at KSWF.

Winds shift to the SW to SSW late this morning into early afternoon
as speeds remain at or under 10 kt until late afternoon as they
begin to increase with the approach of the front. The winds
begin to gust out of the SW closer to 03-05z. Wind shear of 45
to 50 kt at 2 kft out of the SW is expected mainly from 03-07z.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected through today. Amendments likely
this evening with uncertainty in flight category forecasts.
Timing of improvement to VFR early Sun morning may be an hour or
two faster than what is indicated in TAFs.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Sunday: VFR. W winds 15-20 kt G30-35 kt late morning/afternoon.

Monday: VFR. W-WNW winds 15-20 kt G25-30 kt.

Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and ocean seas increase this evening with a frontal
system moving through the region. The system exits on Sunday,
with strong winds expected to develop behind it and gale
conditions could persist through much of Monday on some waters.

Small Craft Advisory goes into effect on local ocean waters at
23Z this evening, and 3Z tonight on all other waters, as wind
gusts toward 25 kt develop and ocean seas build over 5 ft.

Gale Watch remains in effect on all waters Sunday with gusty
westerly flow expected to develop behind the frontal system. The
watch was extended through the day Monday, with highest
confidence on the ocean at this time.

Winds and seas begin to improve late Monday as high pressure
builds in, and sub SCA conditions are expected to return to all
waters by Tuesday, then remaining so through midweek.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the entire forecast
period.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM EST
     Sunday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340.
     Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Monday afternoon for
     ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Sunday
     for ANZ345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DR
NEAR TERM...DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...DR
HYDROLOGY...DR