374
FXUS61 KOKX 271934
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
334 PM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Gale Warnings have been downgraded to Small Craft Advisories.
Coastal Flood Warnings have been replaced with Advisories.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Nor`easter weakening, but additional rain can be expected
until the storm exits late Mon.

2) Minor coastal flooding impacts are expected during times of
high tide through Monday morning, highest Monday morning.
Locally moderate inundation possible Mon morning along the
southern and eastern bays of Long Island and north shore of Long
Island.

3) High surf continues into this eve, subsiding Monday.

4) A couple of hot days possible by the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Low pres was near Cape May at 3 pm. The occluded low will
continue to weaken thru Mon as it tracks NE again and out of the
area by Tue.

A swatch of rain on the ern side of the low will rotate in and
impact NYC and the surrounding areas this eve. As the low
begins to track N again tonight, this rain will overspread the
rest of the area thru the night. Models have a difficult time
pinpointing the exact timing and location of rain bands in these
large occluded systems, but with a lack of strong temperature
advection, rainfall rates and amounts should limit the flood
threat. In coordination with WPC, the Slight Risk for excessive
rainfall has been downgraded to a Marginal Risk, which implies
an isold flash flood risk. In general, minor urban and poor
drainage flooding is the threat.

The low tracks thru the area on Mon, so the most significant
rain should shift N of the area ahead of the low per the model
consensus. There could be some areas of dense fog invof the low
if it passes over land, but timing, placement, and confidence
was too low to put in the grids this far out.

Despite the weakening of the low, a little increase in the winds
is possible this eve as the low draws closer to the area.
Expecting peak gusts around 30 mph with the highest at the
coasts. Winds lighten significantly as the low tracks over the
area on Mon.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Surge will continue to gradually fall over the next 24 hrs as
low pressure slowly weakens and lifts away from the region,
while astronomical tides peak through Tuesday.

Mainly minor flooding with tonight`s high tide, with potential
for locally moderate along the southern and eastern bays of LI
from residual tidal piling and along the north shore of LI and
north shore of Fire Island with combo of minor flood levels and
some wave action.

Scattered areas of minor flooding may last into Tue and Wed
with the morning high tide cycles on those days.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
High surf continues along ocean shorelines, with surf heights
up to 4-8 feet and scattered areas of dune erosion possible
with the high tide cycle this eve.

.KEY MESSAGE 4...
The modeling has been in good agreement for some time, including
the CPC outlooks, that a quick warming trend will impact the
area this week. This timing now looks to be focusing in on Thu
and Fri before a cold frontal passage cools things off again.
The NBM indicates 70s to near 80, but temps aloft combined with
progged wly component winds would support highs near 90,
especially the usual hot spots in NJ and NY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low pressure continues to spin just south of Long Island. Gusts
should begin to taper this afternoon/evening, though rain
conditions will continue into early Monday.

Mainly MVFR or lower thru the TAF period. Prevailing IFR will
push into the terminals late afternoon into this evening for
most. Periods of rain of varying intensity throughout the day
and into tonight.

E/NE winds 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25kt for the remainder of the
afternoon. An occasional gust to 30 kts cannot be ruled out
especially for JFK/LGA/EWR. Winds back to the N/NE overnight
tonight, with gusts still near 20-25kts.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Cigs could bounce between MVFR and IFR at times with any
heavier rain bringing locally IFR visibilities.

Low chance of an isolated embedded TSTM, especially 21-03Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Monday: MVFR or lower. Winds generally below 20kt with VRB
direction through the day.

Tuesday: Becoming VFR with light winds.

Wednesday: VFR with SW flow.

Thursday: VFR with W flow.

Friday: VFR with W flow.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
A SCA is in effect for the Protected waters thru Mon, and for
the ocean thru Mon eve. An ocnl gust to gale force could be
possible tonight on the Sound due to tunneling effects.

High pres builds in thru the middle of the week, keeping winds
and waves blw SCA lvls thru Wed. There is a low chance that SW
winds increase to SCA lvls on the ocean Thu and/or Fri ahead of
the next cold front.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT
     Monday for CTZ009-010.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT
     Monday for NYZ071-073-078-176-177.
     High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-080-
     081-178-179.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT
     Monday for NYZ079>081-179.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to noon EDT
     Monday for NYZ178.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Monday for ANZ331-332-335-
     338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Monday night for
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$