112
FXUS61 KOKX 121410
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1010 AM EDT Mon Oct 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated aviation section.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Improving conditions today.

2) Brief minor coastal flooding expected this morning and again
on Tuesday for some spots.

3) A strong frontal system could produce thunderstorms on
Friday, then strong winds and much colder temperatures over the
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Low pressure departs today with high pressure building in from
the south and west. Subsidence developing through the afternoon
will help bring clearing skies and warmer temperatures. Highs
will be above normal in the lower 70s.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Recent new moon with high astronomical levels and increased storm
surge ahead of low pressure will likely push water levels to
just reach minor flood benchmarks during this morning and
Tuesday morning high tide cycles. A Coastal Flood Statement
remains in effect for this morning`s high tide cycle for
Brooklyn, southern Queens, southern Nassau and southern
Fairfield.

Weak high pressure moving in late tonight into Tuesday morning
will present a lack of sufficient offshore flow with winds then
becoming more onshore by the end of the morning. So, water
levels during the Tuesday morning high tide cycle will likely
be around the same as today, and another round of brief minor
coastal flooding will be possible. This will mainly be for
southern Nassau and southern Fairfield, with the potential for
this to spread farther east into southwest Suffolk.

Last night`s high tide came in a bit higher than forecast for
eastern Bays like Montauk and Orient. This morning`s high tide
cycle will have to be monitored and there is potential for minor
flooding benchmarks to be reached here as well on Monday and
Tuesday. Confidence is low at this time.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
The models have been consistently picking up on a strong cold
frontal passage for the end of the week.

The 00Z GFS and AI-GFS both have the timing of the front Fri
aftn, with the ECMWF slightly quicker. There will be good shear
with the system, however the amount of instability will depend
on the timing of the front and any maritime cloud cover. As a
result, confidence in strong to severe tstms is low attm.
However, due to the setup, especially with a potential 170+ kt
H3 jet over ON/QC, it will need to be watched.

Confidence is higher for strong winds and colder temperatures
behind the fropa and into next weekend. Deep mixing on nwly flow
could push winds to advy levels. In addition, some subfreezing
temps will be possible as thicknesses plummet. For Sat night,
the NBM has lows in the 30s for almost the entire area. The MEX
however is even colder with widespread upr 20s despite the wind.
Because the cold airmass appears to be highly transitory, did
not stray from the NBM attm.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure gradually builds over the terminals through
tonight.

Improving flight categories are expected through the remainder
of the morning with VFR expected to prevail this afternoon into
much of tonight. MVFR ceilings may return for eastern terminals
late tonight into early Tuesday, mainly for KGON and potentially
KISP and KBDR.

N winds 10-13 kt will become NW and lighten this afternoon. A
few lingering gusts up to 20 kt possible through 16z. Winds
diminish tonight, becoming light and variable or under 5 kt out
of the N tonight. Winds become SE and increase to around 10 kt
Tuesday morning.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Flight categories may fluctuate between VFR and MVFR through
17z.

An occasional gust 15-20 kt possible through 17z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Tuesday: MVFR possible early across Long Island and southeast CT.
Chance of a shower/isolated thunderstorm towards KGON at night.

Wednesday: VFR. W wind gusts 15-20kt in the afternoon.

Thursday: VFR.

Thursday night - Friday: MVFR or lower in showers. NW gusts up
to 30 kt late Friday.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will continue to diminish today as low pres tracks further
away from the waters. The SCA is in effect for the ocean thru
tonight for lingering high seas.

Winds and seas may hit SCA criteria on the ocean late Tue into
Wed with a weak frontal sys. The remaining waters are expected
to remain blw SCA lvls attm.

A strong frontal sys will then impact the waters on Fri. SCA
cond are possible on all waters, then NW gales are possible on
all waters behind the sys Fri night into the weekend.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...DS/JT
MARINE...