518
FXUS61 KOKX 170215
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
915 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Deepening low pressure lifts over the Canadian Maritimes
through early this week as high pressure builds east from the
Plains. A weak low passes off the Mid Atlantic coast Tuesday
night into Wednesday. High pressure follows for Thursday. A
frontal system may impact the area for the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Have cancelled the wind advisory that was still in effect for
much of the NYC metro area and Long Island as winds continue to
diminish. A few gusts to 40 mph may still be possible along/near
north facing shorelines of Long Island this evening, also in the
higher elevations inland, below advy criteria.

Anomalously strong upper low continues to spin over New
England. 500 mb height anomalies over the region are running 2
to 3 standard deviations below climatology for this time of
year. The region will lie between deep surface low pressure to
our northeast with high pressure building well to our west. This
will leave a strong pressure gradient over the area between the
two systems.

Still seeing a few lake streamers making it into areas from NYC
north/west, with only trace precip. Otherwise, mainly partly
cloudy skies expected, although there could be a few periods of
mostly cloudy conditions. Low temps will be in the 30s, lowest
inland and across the Long Island Pine Barrens. No frost is
expected with continued windy conditions and large dewpoint
depressions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The aforementioned upper low will continue lifting NE over
the Canadian Maritimes through Tuesday. Cyclonic flow will
remain over the region on Monday with the last area of vort
energy associated with the upper low lifting north of the area
Monday night. Surface high pressure will draw closer Monday into
Monday night. The pressure gradient remains steep on Monday,
but low level winds will be a bit weaker compared to Sunday
afternoon/evening. Winds are still expected to gust 25-35 mph
with a few of the usual spots gusting close to 40 mph. This has
been a typical trend in recent setups with WNW-NW winds and cold
advection where NBM guidance has been too weak with winds. The
expected winds remain below advisory levels. Scattered to broken
stratocu clouds also anticipated on Monday with a low chance of
a lake effect streamer edging towards the NW interior in the
afternoon. Currently not expecting any measurable precip but a
few flurries possible across Orange county in the afternoon.
Highs on Monday will be close to ten degrees below normal in the
lower to middle 40s. The wind will make it feel like it is in
the 20s in the early morning and 30s the rest of the day.

While winds weaken Monday night, the boundary layer is not
expected to fully decouple. High pressure builds closer, but
will still not settle overhead. Lows will range from the upper
20s/lower 30s inland and Long Island Pine Barrens with middle
30s in the NYC metro.

Confluent flow sets up over the northeast on Tuesday. A mid level
shortwave will approach that is pivoting around the larger upper
low to our northeast. The confluent flow will likely suppress
the energy to our south allowing any associated low pressure
remain to the south. Guidance continues to show any precip
attempting to stretch northward over the southern part of the
area Tuesday night drying up as it encounters the confluent
flow. Will maintain the slight/low chance PoP across the
southern tier of counties Tuesday night, but if recent trends
persist, it will end up dry. Highs on Tuesday will continue to
be below normal in the 40s. Weaker winds Tuesday night should
allow for some radiational cooling inland, but clouds may start
increasing late from the shortwave passing to our south.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key points:

* Temperatures below normal to begin the period on Wednesday,
  moderating to normal Thursday, above normal Friday into Saturday.
  Back to normal to close out next weekend.


* Mainly dry through at least Thursday afternoon with rain chances
  increasing for Thursday night and Friday with an approaching
  frontal system.

Blocking over the north Atlantic breaks down early in the period
with a mid level confluent flow between the northern and southern
branches over the Mid Mississippi Valley into the Mid Atlantic
states. This will allow high pressure to build in for the mid week
period along with warming temperatures.

Uncertainty in the forecast becomes more pronounced at the end of
the week as a frontal system approaches form the west. The 12Z
operational GFS has become considerably more progressive that it was
24h ago, lagging the ECMWF and Canadian. Still though, timing
differences are only on the order of 6-12 hours. GEFS, GEPS and the
NBM all support a faster solution. However, there will likely be
changes in timing and the magnitude of the system due to the
complexity of the upper flow and the fact that much of this energy
is still offshore in the Pacific. At this time, the forecast will
show increasing chances for rain Thursday night into Friday, with
conditions then improving on Saturday as the system passes to the
east. Low chances for showers will linger into Saturday night which
is not unusual for a consenus forecast, which is weighing in many
different model solutions.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR as deepening low pressure lifts across the Canadian
Maritimes.

WNW winds will slowly diminish this evening, but still be near
15-20 kt with gusts 20-30 kt. For daytime Monday, winds increase
a few kt back to near 20 kt with gusts 30-35 kt, then start to
diminish toward evening.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Potential for a few gusts 35-40 kt Monday afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday night: VFR with diminishing WNW winds but still G20-25kt.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR. W-WNW wind gusts 15-20 kt. Gusts diminish
at night. Chance of light rain late at night with possible MVFR
cond.

Wednesday through Thursday: Mainly VFR. Possible light rain/MVFR
for some terminals for early Wednesday morning and early
Thursday. Higher chance for rain and MVFR late Thursday night.

Friday: MVFR or lower at times in rain. S winds G15-20kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Gale warnings continue on the ocean through Mon afternoon, and
on the non ocean waters til 6 AM Mon, with gusts up to 40 kt.
SCA cond expected on the non ocean waters daytime Mon.

Seas through Mon will range from 6-10 ft on the ocean, and 4-6
ft on central/eastern Long Island Sound.

Winds will gradually diminish on the waters Mon night, but a
period of SCA conditions remains likely. Ocean seas will likely
fall below 5 ft by Tue morning. Conditions will then remain
below SCA levels through Tue night.

High pressure over the waters for the mid week period will
result in tranquil conditions. An approaching frontal system
and a strengthening S flow on Fri may bring the next chance for
SCA conditions.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no significant hydrological concerns through the
end of the week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-
     345.
     Gale Warning until 6 PM EST Monday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DS/DW
NEAR TERM...BG/DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...DS/DW
HYDROLOGY...DS/DW