468
FXUS61 KOKX 301126
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
726 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes. Updated for 12Z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Conditions remain dry and gradually warm the next few days
with high pressure in place.

2) Cooler weather returns this weekend, with a chance for rain
into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Surface high pressure builds east and settles offshore into
Friday. This will allow drier conditions to persist with a
gradual warm up.

More sunshine is expected today compared to Tuesday, but still
anticipate sct stratocu to develop in the afternoon with a
cirrus deck moving in late. A weak warm front lifts up to the
northwest on Thursday leading to an increase in high and mid
cloud cover, but expect conditions to remain dry. Temperatures
get into the 70s both days, with Thursday several degrees warmer
than today.

By Friday, deep SW flow helps pump H925 temps toward 22-23C.
Forecast highs are into the low 80s for most areas, perhaps mid
80s in urban NE NJ, about 10 degrees over climo for early
October but far from record territory. A cold frontal passage
late Friday brings an end to the warmth. A few showers are
possible with the front late Friday afternoon and early
evening, but coverage and impacts appear limited with
progressive flow.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Behind the frontal passage, surface high pressure quickly
builds east from the Great Lakes, ushering in a cooler air mass
for the weekend.

With cool, dry northerly flow, temperatures Saturday likely
struggle to reach 70 in most areas. Winds veer E by Sunday as
the high shifts into New England.

Forecast confidence then lowers a bit by late in the weekend
with uncertainty around a possible wave of low pressure that
could develop and pass to the south. Global NWP and AI guidance
has generally backed away from wetter solutions previously
offered, but being 4 to 5 days out, will still need to monitor.
For now, went with the national blend`s 20 to 30% chance for
showers Sunday and Sunday night. Otherwise, remaining cooler in
the 60s with high pressure once again building in from the Great
Lakes into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIgh pressure remains over the terminals through midweek.

Pockets of MVFR through about 14Z with CIGS hovering around
3000 ft.

Mainly NW flow, although some variability is possible due to
the light flow. KJFK forecast to get more of a sea breeze today,
with LGA and EWR possible by late this afternoon into early
this evening. Wind will back to southerly with the sea breeze. Winds
become SW all areas tonight.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing may be +/- an hour or so for a late day sea breeze
likely at KJFK, KLGA and KEWR.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Tonight-Thursday night: VFR.

Friday-Saturday: MVFR possible with possible showers. Otherwise,
mainly VFR.

Saturday night-Sunday: Chance of showers. MVFR or lower possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Light SW flow continues through Thursday with high pressure
settling offshore. Winds and seas increase with an approaching
cold front Friday and this could lead to a brief period of SCA
conditions on some of the coastal ocean waters by Friday evening.

Behind the fropa, winds turn N on Saturday, then E by Sunday,
but conditions are expected to remain below SCA criteria through
the weekend.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DR
AVIATION...DBR
MARINE...DR