721
FXUS61 KOKX 121919
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
319 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Trended higher with chances for showers and thunderstorms
tonight into early Thursday. Otherwise, no other significant
changes made to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms tonight into
early Thursday. Some thunderstorms could have strong wind gusts.

2) Drier conditions expected for Friday through Saturday. Days are
expected to trend a little cooler and with less humidity as
well.

3) Scattered areas of minor coastal flooding likely for
vulnerable locales along the south shore of Nassau and Queens
and coastal Westchester and Fairfield during the nighttime high
tide thru Thursday. Greatest coverage of minor flooding likely
for tonight`s high tide.

4) Rain appearing more likely Sunday afternoon into Monday. Low
confidence regarding impacts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
The synoptic pattern through Thursday features a 500mb
shortwave passage tonight into early Thursday and a weak wave
of surface low pressure.

Small undulations within the WNW 500mb flow and small areas of
positive vorticity advection traverse the local region tonight
into early Thursday. At the surface, a weak area of low pressure
approaches tonight and moves across early Thursday. Both NAM
and GFS show more negative Showalter Indices overnight,
indicating more elevated instability. Showers are likely late
tonight into early Thursday along with a chance of
thunderstorms.

Some thunderstorms could be strong with elevated instability and
modeled bulk shear 0-6 km AGL of near 30-40 kt. HRRR shows in
10m wind gust potential some small embedded convective wind
gusts near 40-50 mph for multiple runs moving across parts of
the region. There could even some a severe wind gust to 60 mph
but this will be a very low probability.

The associated frontal boundary may linger nearby during the day
Thursday but the forcing will be weak. Some 500mb ridging occurs
Thursday into Thursday night. There will be some capping aloft. The
convection shifts farther east Thursday morning and eventually
dissipates. CAMs indicate some additional showers developing
for the afternoon into early evening with coverage mainly
isolated. With the capping aloft, instability will not increase
too much, so left out thunderstorms with the forecast.

For some locations, Thursday will be relatively the warmest day of
our forecast period through the week. Highs overall well into
the 80s with NYC Metro area generally in the upper 80s along
with parts of NE NJ. Air will feel a little more humid with
dewpoints more in the mid to upper 60s. However, max heat
indices will only be slightly above the actual temperature, so
close to 90 for NYC Metro and parts of NE NJ.



.KEY MESSAGE 2...
The synoptic pattern Friday through Saturday features a 500mb
shortwave passage Friday into Friday night but with the surface
low pressure along a front well south of the region and high
pressure starting to build in from the Great Lakes. For
Saturday, ridging takes place aloft with high pressure building
directly over the local area.

While the mid level pattern still shows a few shortwaves moving
across Friday into Saturday, at the surface, high pressure will
gradually build in from the Great Lakes. Overall, more
atmospheric NW flow will allow for a drier airmass to settle
into the region. Dewpoints forecast more in the upper 50s to
lower 60s Friday and more in the mid to upper 50s Saturday.
Capping is shown aloft in the forecast soundings. The
subsidence should prevail and keep dry conditions in the
forecast in this time period. The lower dewpoints will make the
air feel more comfortable with less humid conditions expected.


.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Astronomical tides peak today with an approaching new moon,
bringing potential for scattered areas of minor coastal flooding
during the evening/nighttime high tides thru Thursday.

Threat for a bit more widespread minor coastal flooding during
the tonight high tide as compared to yesterday along the south
shore of Nassau and Queens and coastal Westchester and Fairfield
as astro tides peak. This mainly appears to be within 2 tenths
of a ft of minor flood thresholds, and with weak wind and wave
forcing, will maintain coastal flood statements. Localized
flooding possible for vulnerable locations along lower NY
Harbor, Newark bay and tidally affected NE NJ rivers as well.

Astro tides tick down 1 to 2 tenths for Thu Night high tides,
and with similarly weak wind/wave forcing, another night of
iso-sct areas of minor flooding.

.KEY MESSAGE 4...
Global models remain in fairly decent agreement in a frontal system
passing through and impacting the area during the Sunday afternoon
to Monday timeframe. While models disagree a bit on the exact
path and eventual timing of the system, it appears that the most
likely timing of the system would not appear to enhance the
thunderstorm threat as it would serve to limit CAPE, but ample
shear would be present nevertheless. PWATS could climb to over 2
inches, so trends in the flooding potential will need to be
watched. Main point here is that rainfall is appearing to be
likely, with Sunday night into early Monday being the most
likely time of rainfall and any impacts. It`s still too soon to
have high confidence regarding potential severe weather and
flooding impacts.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Weak high pressure in control through the TAF period. A weak
cold front will approach the region and move across the
terminals tonight.

Mainly VFR. Some scattered SHRA and isolated TSRA late tonight
into early Thu AM push could produce some sub-VFR conditions.
Will keep the PROB30 in for the TSRA chances overnight.

NW winds back to W/SW this afternoon with S/SW seabreezes
likely for south coastal terminals. Seabreezes will be
possible for KLGA/KEWR/KTEB late in the afternoon or evening.
Winds become a bit more westerly or northwesterly behind the
cold front Thursday morning.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments may be needed for the timing of the afternoon/evening
seabreezes.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday: VFR. W-NW winds around 10kt or less.

Friday-Saturday: VFR. W-NW winds, giving way to afternoon
seabreezes.

Sunday: VFR likely for much of the day. Increasing likelihood
for showers and a chance of thunderstorms later in day and at
night.

Monday: Chance of showers may produce sub-VFR conditions.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Overall, the pressure gradient will not be too steep through the
first half of this weekend. As such, conditions on the forecast
waters are expected to remain below SCA thresholds. Relatively
closest conditions get to SCA are wind gusts. Some portions of the
waters could have wind gusts reach near 20 kt this afternoon and
Friday afternoon.

SCA potential increases Sunday into Monday for mainly the
forecast ocean zones as high pressure moves offshore and low
pressure approaches from the west. Some non-ocean zones will
have SCA potential for wind gusts as well.

Rip Currents: 1-2 ft SE onshore swell and S/SW wind wave this week,
with weak seabreeze development will generally keep the rip risk low
through Friday. One caveat, approach of new moon will increase the
tidal range, and could increase rip risk to moderate particularly
around the times of low tide each afternoon.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM/NV/MW
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JM/MW