358
FXUS61 KOKX 040012
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
712 PM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A quick moving cold front passes through the region this
evening. High pressure briefly returns Tuesday into early
Wednesday. A quick moving low then moves through Wednesday
night. High pressure builds in on Thursday and remains in place
through early Friday. Then, a Canadian low brings through a cold
front late Friday into early Saturday. High pressure follows
the cold front until another low pressure system impacts the
region Sunday into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A cold front moves through the forecast area this evening with
scattered showers. Increased PoPs by a little mainly in the
vicinity of the city as per latest radar and surface obs. Best
overall chances will be north of the city, and the front and
showers should be out of the area before midnight. Still can`t
rule out a rumble of thunder mainly over CT, but possibly over
eastern LI as well as MUCAPE of 100-200 J/kg is shifting ESE
ahead of the cold front. Then with an increasing pressure
gradient force and rather strong cold advection, winds and gusts
increase behind the front with gusts around 30kt. The highest
winds and gusts will likely be across the eastern areas as an
offshore low deepens and is picked up by the northern stream
cold front. Wind gusts remain be advisory levels. Used a blend
of the NBM, NBM 90th, and CONSSHORT for the winds and gusts.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Weak upper ridging builds in for Tuesday and Tuesday night with
a fast nearly zonal upper flow. This flow will bring a weak
shortwave and clipper system into the region for late Wednesday
and into Wednesday night. The surface low passes to the north
and the better chances of precipitation will be across the
northern areas. Another period of gusty westerly winds develop
late Wednesday night in the wake of the low as the system
continues to deepens as the low moves off the New England coast
by Thursday morning. Gusts are potentially higher than tonight`s
but will likely also remain below Wind Advisory criteria. For
winds and gusts used a blend of the NBM and NBM 90th.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low pressure exits northeast as high pressure builds in on Thursday,
remaining in place through the first half of Friday. Thursday will
still remain breezy as a pressure gradient remains over the region,
but this gradient will continue to relax into the afternoon and
evening, leading to winds ramping down. Dry weather is anticipated
Thursday through the first half of Friday.

A Canadian low will pass to our north, dragging through a cold front
Friday night into Saturday morning. This will bring with it rain and
wind. Rain is mainly timed for overnight Friday night while winds
are expected to increase through the day Friday, peaking Friday
evening and early Friday night.

Following the cold front, we dry out again until another system
impacts us Sunday into Monday. Timing and magnitude still vary among
the guidance during this time frame, so for now only carrying slight
and chance POPs. Strong winds, typical of Fall, will again return
with this system.

Highs remain in the 50s to low 60s through the long-term period each
day while lows vary a little more. It will be a chilly Thursday
night as lows dip into the 30s (or even below freezing in some
spots). SW flow and rainfall will lead to a significantly warmer
night Friday night with lows in the mid 40s to low 50s. Thereafter
cooler nights return to round out the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A cold front moves through the terminals this evening.

VFR. Showers possible this evening, but likely with vsbys
remaining P6SM. Can not rule out a isolated rumble of thunder
with the showers east of the city, but confidence of occurrence
remains too low to include in the TAFs.

Winds become west-northwest gusting 20-28kts behind the front.
Gusts to near 30 kt will be possible on Tuesday.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Brief MVFR possible until 01z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday night: VFR. NW winds G20kt early.

Wednesday: VFR. Chance of showers at night SW-S winds 15g25kt in the
afternoon, becoming W G20-30kt at night.

Thursday: VFR. NW winds around 15g25kt possible.

Friday: VFR. SW-S winds 10-15,g20-25kt possible. Rain with sub VFR
at night.

Saturday: Sub VFR possible early, otherwise VFR with W winds.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
With a strong pressure gradient force developing tonight behind
a cold frontal passage, and rather strong cold advection wind
gusts are a little higher across the forecast waters, and have
now issued a Gale Warning for all but the New York Harbor
waters where a Small Craft Advisory has been posted. Gusts in
the western Long Island Sound waters are marginal for gale force
gusts, but toward the central Sound winds and gusts increase so
decided to include the western Sound in the Gale Warning. Once
gale force gusts end small craft advisory level gusts continue
through Tuesday and possibly into Tuesday evening, especially
for the eastern forecast waters.

Then with the passage of a clipper system passing to the north
of the waters Wednesday night and deepening off the New England
coast, another period of gale force gusts are likely across all
the waters, and have highlighted this in the HWOOKX, Hazardous
Weather Outlook.

Gales should end by midday Thursday as the pressure gradient
continually weakens into the day as high pressure builds in. Waves
on ocean waters should drop below SCA levels Thursday night. Gales
will again be possible on ocean waters with SCA-level gusts on non
ocean waters as our next cold front approaches and passes late
Friday into Saturday morning. Conditions improve late Saturday and
remain below SCA-levels until our next system passes Sunday into
Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through this weekend.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Tuesday for
     ANZ331-332-335-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ338.
     Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Tuesday for
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BR/MET
NEAR TERM...JC/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...BR
AVIATION...JC/JE
MARINE...BR/MET
HYDROLOGY...BR/MET