008
FXUS61 KOKX 161455
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1055 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will remain over the area today as a frontal
system slowly approaches from the Great Lakes. A series of
surface troughs will move across the area tonight into Thursday
before the associated cold front passes through Thursday night.
High pressure builds in Friday and moves offshore Saturday. A
frontal system will move through late Saturday night into
Sunday, followed by high pressure building to the north Monday
and Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Very warm, humid conditions will prevail heading into Thursday
with an upper level ridge across the area today giving way to a
mid level shortwave trough over the Ohio Valley this morning.
Low clouds and fog in spots (especially out east) will burn off
this AM, then convective debris from the west will result in
increasing mid and high level clouds this evening as well as
from developing convection, mainly west of the area today. CAM`s
show widely sct activity this afternoon with a few pop
thunderstorms, mainly north and west of NYC.

More importantly for today, will be daytime highs well into the
80s and in some cases the lower 90s. This combined with dew
points in the lower to mid 70s will produce heat indices of 95
to 100. A few locations may see slightly higher values. Deviated
a bit from the NBM by knocking down dew points just a bit
looking at what transpired on Tuesday and its known bias of
being a bit too high in this type of airmass. Still, had to
expand the heat advisory to NE Suffolk County. This was largely
due to values coming up a bit on Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
For this evening into the overnight, the main focus will be on
incoming mid level shortwave trough. Most of the CAMs weaken any
clusters of convection that move in from the west mainly late
this evening into the overnight. However, the 06Z HRRR and 00Z
NSSL WRF, emphasize something closer to morning. Limiting
factors include weak mid level lapse rates, time of day, and
weak wind shear. However, PW values are back up to around 2
inches. SPC HREF not showing high probabilities for excessive
rainfall, but brief heavy downpours are a possibility. High CAPE
values this evening also could result in pulse severe, thus the
isolated severe threat across NE NJ into the Lower Hudson
Valley.

Thursday will feature another hot and humid day with heat
indices once again 95 to 100. In fact, a veering wind profile
with SW flow aloft and SSW at the surface shows more drying
and better mixing. This should allow for highs at or slightly
warmer than the previous day. SPC has much of the area under a
marginal risk for isolated severe thunderstorms along and ahead
of a pre-frontal trough in the afternoon. The cold front passes
through Thursday night, but airmass may be too dry to support
any convection. Morning showers and thunderstorms Thursday exit
with the shortwave and the airmass should be able to recover,
however, model soundings show a drying profile which could be a
limiting factor as as the vertical wind profile veers to the
west. Deep-layer shear increase some, but still rather weak. In
addition, any cells that do develop should progress quickly,
lessening any flood threat.

Behind the cold front Thursday night, slightly drier and cooler
air will filter in for Friday. Heat advisory criteria is not
expected to be met.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure over the area on Sat should bring fair wx with
seasonable temps, with lower humidity as dewpoints will be in the
upper 50s/lower 60s. An approaching warm front late Sat night into
Sunday morning should however bring back higher humidity as well as
the likelihood of showers/tstms, some of which could produce locally
heavy rainfall. Cold fropa later Sunday should bring a return of dry
cond for Mon/Tue high pressure builds from the north, with near
seasonable temps and somewhat lower humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A weak frontal boundary will remain nearby, then lift north late
today and tonight.

Mainly VFR today. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible as
early as late afternoon, but not enough coverage to go with anything
more than a PROB30 at this time.

S to SE winds mostly around 10kt.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled AMD expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Thursday: Afternoon/evening showers/tstms possible with MVFR or
lower cond.

Friday and Saturday: Mainly VFR.

Sunday: Showers likely with chance of tstms. MVFR or lower cond
also likely.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas across the forecast waters remain below advisory
levels into Thursday. However, with an increasing and persistent
southwest flow ahead of an approaching cold front a few gusts
may be near SCA and ocean seas may approach 5 feet briefly overnight
Thursday, mainly east of Fire Island Inlet. With the passage of
the cold front late Thursday night into early Friday morning
seas will subside below advisory levels. Conditions will then
remain below SCA thresholds through this weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Localized flash flooding is possible from scattered late afternoon
and evening convection on Wednesday, mainly north and west of
NYC. Hydrologic impacts are not expected Thursday through early
next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a low rip current risk today as a light southerly flow
continues with around 2 foot waves. With a strengthening southwest
flow Thursday, the risk for rip current development will be
moderate. Waves will be 2 to around 3 feet.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005-009.
     Heat Advisory until 10 PM EDT Thursday for CTZ005>012.
NY...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ069>075-
     078>081-176>179.
     Heat Advisory until 10 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ067>075-078>080-
     176>179.
NJ...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-004-
     006-103>108.
     Heat Advisory until 10 PM EDT Thursday for NJZ002-004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MET/DW
NEAR TERM...BG/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JC/BG
MARINE...MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...MET/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...