786
FXUS61 KOKX 040638
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
238 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) No significant impacts expected from possible showers this
afternoon and evening.

2) Dry thereafter with coolest conditions Tuesday into
Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
High pressure will shift into the Canadian Maritimes today. An
amplified upper trough will dig down into the Great Lakes region,
sending a cold front towards the area. The upper trough and its
associated shortwave energy will interact with the coastal
front/baroclinic zone just south of the area to develop a weak wave
of low pressure this afternoon into tonight. The low should develop
a few showers across the area, mainly in the afternoon and evening.
There is some concern that lingering surface ridging/dry air may
limit shower development, especially inland. The greatest likelihood
of showers is close to the coast with chance PoPs farther inland.
Rainfall amounts will be light with generally a few hundredths
of an inch inland to a tenth or two of an inch closer to the
coast. There are no flooding impacts expected.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
High pressure dominates the weather pattern through the rest of
the forecast period with dry weather expected. Monday may be a
bit breezy as the high builds into the area and temperatures
should end up close to normal. The coolest airmass of this fall
will advect into the area Monday night into Tuesday and then
remain in place into Wednesday. Lows Monday night will fall into
the 40s for the most part with the coolest readings well
inland. The NYC metro may remain right around 50. The coldest
night may end up being Tuesday night as high pressure settles
overhead. Interior locations could fall into the mid/upper 30s,
especially if skies remain clear and winds light. It`s still a
few days out, but would need to watch for frost potential in
these areas. Temperatures will moderate closer to normal
Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will will retreat to the northeast today, while
weak low pressure passes to the south and east this afternoon
into tonight.

E/NE winds increase to around 10 kt toward daybreak at the coastal
terminals, but will be a bit weaker at the inland terminals.
Winds will then become primarily E before backing to the NE
toward evening, eventually more northerly tonight as low
pressure passes to the east.

MVFR ceilings likely develop at the coastal terminals in the
afternoon with light rain. KHPN and KSWF may be more marginal
with low end VFR or high end MVFR ceilings. While the CT coastal
terminals are forecast to drop to MVFR, confidence is lower
being a bit farther north of the low track. Low confidence for
IFR conditions at the coastal terminals Sunday evening.
Visibilities during the rain may briefly lower to MVFR.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

It is possible some light rain with MVFR cigs could arrive at the
NYC metros as early as 16Z, thus some amendments possible towards
the afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Late Sunday night: Improving to VFR.

Monday: VFR. NW winds 10-15G20-25kt in the afternoon and evening.

Tuesday: VFR. NW winds G15-20kt mainly E of KBDR/KISP.

Wednesday and Thursday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Easterly winds will likely be strongest today early in the day
before weakening slowly tonight and backing more NE to N. There
could be some gusts to 25 kt on the ocean waters and seas up to 5 ft
at times this morning, but thinking is that it won`t be enough to
warrant a SCA here. A better chance of advisory conditions will be
Monday afternoon into Monday night behind the passage of a cold
front. Still thinking that advisory conditions likely meet advisory
thresholds over most of the waters, but models have trended a little
weaker with winds over past couple of days. With this in
consideration, plus it being a late 3rd period start, have
collaborated with WFO BOX to hold off on the SCA issuance for now.

Winds should subside Tuesday morning, leading to relatively tranquil
conditions through Thursday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JC