385
FXUS61 KOKX 112323
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
723 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure east of New England will weaken as another
stronger high builds into eastern Canada. A coastal storm will
impact the area Sunday through Monday before gradually drifting
east and away from the area on Tuesday. High pressure will build
in for mid to late week, and settle nearby to begin
next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Low level convergence and lift with a weak trough along the
coast continue to generate some light showers across parts of
the area, mainly NW of NYC attm. These should lift NW with the
low level flow and out of the area by evening. Another similar
round of showers is possible after midnight as ENE winds begin
to slowly increase. Lows tonight should range from the upper
40s well inland to the 50s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

* A coastal storm will impact the area with rain and wind during
  the period.

* Strongest winds expected Sunday night into early Monday
  morning. Damaging winds sustained up to 40 mph with gusts up
  to 60 mph expected across the east end of Long Island. Strong
  winds expected elsewhere mainly in the NYC metro area and
  along the coast, with gusts 45-55 mph, highest across Long
  Island.

* Moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall expected from Sunday
  afternoon into Monday afternoon.

* Rainfall of 2-3 inches expected for most of NYC and Long
  Island, with lesser amts of 1/5-2 inches north/west of NYC.
  Minor nuisance/poor drainage flooding is possible in typically
  flood prone areas.

* Coastal flood warnings are now in effect for most of the
  coastline for widespread moderate and locally major flooding
  for southern Nassau/SW Suffolk. Advisories in effect for the
  CT coastline for minor flooding. Beach erosion and dune
  washovers are also expected along the oceanfront. See the
  Tides/Coastal Flooding section for more details.

Only minor fcst changes made based on latest model trends. There
is still some uncertainty re the amount of phasing with a
cutoff low drifting SE into western NY/PA tonight and a
secondary low that develops off the Mid Atlantic coast in
association with shortwave energy riding up the coast well ahead
of a closed low over the Southeast. All in all the GFS has
trended toward the ECMWF idea, with this second low hooking
back toward the Delmarva late Sunday into Sunday night.
Confidence high enough to upgrade the high wind watch to a
warning across ern Suffolk, where damaging wind gusts up to 60
mph appear likely especially in areas with eastern exposure to
the coastal waters, and to issue a wind advisory for the rest of
the coast and most of the NYC metro area where gusts will still
be in the 45-55 mph range, highest across Nassau/W Suffolk. It
is uncertain whether these conditions will last into Mon night
per the GFS, or start to relax per ECMWF.

Rain becomes likely Sunday morning and then will continue
through Monday night. The rain should become moderate to locally
heavy at times, and the long duration should keep the overall
flood threat low and more of the nuisance variety.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Back to dry conditions for mid to late week.

To begin the period the coastal storm system slowly fills and
weakens as it drifts south and east off the Mid Atlantic coast.
Have shower chances through the day on Tuesday mainly for the
eastern half of the area with mainly dry conditions returning
later in the day and for Tuesday night. A large dome of high
pressure then builds gradually for the mid to late week period
with much of the time a NW flow aloft and a N flow at the sfc
keeping things predominantly dry. There will be a few spoke of
upper level energy embedded in the NW flow aloft, but with
essentially no moisture in the lower levels dry conditions
should prevail.

Near normal temperatures are expected for Tuesday through
Wednesday, followed by below normal temperatures behind a cold
front Thursday into Thursday night. Temperatures should then
get back to normal to begin next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low pressure develops along the Southeast coast and tracks
northward towards the area thru Sun ngt.

MVFR develops tngt, with all areas MVFR by 12Z. Rain then
develops during the day Sun, with IFR by aftn, lasting thru Sun
ngt. The rain could be heavy at times, especially aft 00Z Mon.

Flow backs NE as speeds ramp up overnight into Sunday morning.
Gusts 30 to 40 kt develop by Sunday afternoon, lasting thru Sun
ngt. Peak gusts around 50kt possible Sun ngt, especially E of a
JFK-LGA-HPN line.

LLWS possible SWF with 2000ft winds around 40kt. Gusts close to
2000ft speeds elsewhere so no LLWS included there.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of category changes tonight and Sunday may be off by a
couple of hours.

If tides run a ft or more abv what is currently fcst, LGA will
experience some flooding impacts Sun ngt and/or Mon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday Night and Monday: Rain. MVFR or lower conditions with
rain. NE winds 20-30kt, G35-45kt at KISP, 15-25kt, G30-40kt at
the NYC metro/CT terminals, and G20-30kt at KSWF. Strongest
winds into the first half of Monday. LLWS possible across the
interior with about 40 kt at 2,000 feet.

Tuesday: MVFR to start with a chance of showers. VFR becoming
likely in the afternoon. N to NNE winds sustained at 10-15kt,
G20-25kt.

Wednesday: VFR. NW wind gusts 15-20 kt.

Thursday: VFR. NW wind gust 20-25 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
A coastal storm will bring strong winds and large waves to the
waters Sunday through Monday. A Storm Warning is now in effect
through Mon afternoon for all the coastal waters except for the
western Sound and NY Harbor, where highest confidence exists
for 50 kt gusts. Gale warnings are in effect for the western
Sound and NY Harbor through Mon night for gusts 35-45 kt and an
occasional 50-kt gust at the height of the storm Sunday night.

These strong winds will increase seas over the ocean zones to
as high as 21 ft, 8-13 ft on the waters between Orient and
Montauk, and 6-8 ft on the central Sound and at the NY Harbor
entrance.

As the storm pulls away on Tuesday winds and seas begin to
subside. Gale conditions should give way to SCA conditions
during the day Tuesday on the ocean, with SCA conditions
elsewhere. Towards the late day and evening sub advisory
conditions return from west to east on the non-ocean waters,
however seas on the ocean will remain elevated through Tuesday
night. SCA level seas will likely hold on throughout the period
on the ocean. After a cold front swings through winds pick up
on all waters with SCA gusts likely returning for all waters
late Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread rainfall of 1.5 to 3 inches is expected from late
tonight through Monday night. While minor nuisance/poor
drainage flooding is possible, no significant impacts are
expected with this being a long duration rainfall and recent
dry conditions.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Confidence is increasing in widespread moderate to major
coastal flooding for the Sunday afternoon, and moreso the Sunday
Night and possibly Monday afternoon high tide cycles along the
western Great South Bay as ENE-NE winds ramp up to marginal
storm force Sunday afternoon into Sunday Night. This will pose
an elevated threat to life and property. There is low potential
for major coastal flooding for Jamaica Bay with the Sunday Night
and Monday afternoon high tide cycles as well.

Elsewhere, confidence is high in areas of moderate coastal
flooding along N and E facing coastlines along Western LI Sound,
and twin forks of LI with combination of water levels reaching
marginal moderate flood levels, along with 3-6ft breaking wave
action. In addition, areas of moderate coastal flooding expected
along NY/NJ harbor, including the tidally affected rivers of NE
NJ, particularly the Hackensack River. Coastal flood warnings
are in effect for these areas.

Meanwhile, a widespread minor to locally moderate coastal flood
threat exist for southern CT where NE winds should limit wave
action and keep moderate flood impacts to localized. In
addition, scattered areas of minor to locally moderate coastal
flooding expected along low lying areas along the Hudson R
during times of high tide Sunday aft thru Monday aft as surge if
forced up the river. A coastal flood advisory and flood
advisory has been issued respectively here.

A blend of 75th percentile Stevens, 75th percentile PETSS, and
deterministic STOFS and ETSS was used for this forecast. The
75th percentile was used in the ensemble guidance to give
credence to potentially stronger winds regimes than indicated
by the GFS forced deterministic guidances.

There still remains uncertainty on how quickly wind back from
NE to N, and/or subside on Monday aft based on ultimate track
and intensity of low pressure. If winds back to more of a
northerly direction or weaken quicker than anticipated, water
levels could be lower than currently indicated, particularly for
open water adjacent areas. Will have to re- evaluate over the
next 24 to 36 hrs.

Finally along the oceanfront, widespread dune base erosion and
localized overwashes are likely during the times of high tide
Sunday thru Monday, via the combo of high stormtide and breaking
surf around 8 to 12 ft. The prolonged e to w sweep will likely
result in considerable beach erosion (escarpment) as well. 4-8
ft surf along NE facing and open water exposed areas of the twin
forks of LI will also likely cause minor to moderate dune
erosion.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Wind Advisory from noon Sunday to 6 PM EDT Monday for
     CTZ009>012.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 PM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for
     CTZ009>012.
NY...Wind Advisory from noon Sunday to 6 PM EDT Monday for
     NYZ071>075-078-080-176>179.
     Coastal Flood Warning from noon Sunday to 6 PM EDT Monday for
     NYZ072-074-075-178.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 2 PM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for
     NYZ071-073-078-176-177.
     Coastal Flood Warning from noon Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for
     NYZ079-081.
     High Wind Warning from noon Sunday to 6 PM EDT Monday for
     NYZ079-081.
     Coastal Flood Warning from noon Sunday to 7 PM EDT Monday for
     NYZ080-179.
NJ...Wind Advisory from noon Sunday to 6 PM EDT Monday for NJZ006-
     106-108.
     Coastal Flood Warning from noon Sunday to 6 PM EDT Monday for
     NJZ006-104-106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM EDT Sunday
     for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
     Storm Warning from 6 AM Sunday to 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ331-
     332-340-345-350-353-355.
     Gale Warning from 6 AM Sunday to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ335-
     338.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JE/BG
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...JMC/DR
MARINE...JE/BG
HYDROLOGY...JE/BG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...