835
FXUS61 KOKX 242101
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
401 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moving off the Mid Atlantic coast late today will
slide east tonight into Tuesday. A warm front will then lift
north through the waters Tuesday night, followed by a cold front
Wednesday night. The area will then remain in between strong
low pressure to the north and strong high pressure to the south
and west from Thanksgiving Day through early Saturday. The high
will build in for much of the weekend. A cold front may impact
the area toward the end of the weekend into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A 1025 sfc high over the Mid Atlantic will slide off the coast
tonight, while its trailing upper level ridge approaches. Bkn
high/mid level clouds already spilling over the upper ridge axis
over wrn PA and the OH Valley will move in especially late
this evening and overnight. Along with diminishing winds and
mostly clear skies before they arrive, temps in many areas may
bottom out around or shortly after midnight, then level off
overnight. Lows are a colder GFS/NAM MOS blend, ranging from
25-30 well inland and across the Long Island Pine Barrens, to
near 40 in NYC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The upper ridge should pass east early Tue AM, followed by a
mid level shortwave trough approaching from the OH Valley. Light
overrunning rainfall ahead of the trough and a leading warm
front should arrive by late day from the NYC metro area west,
then overspread the rest of the area Tue evening. A period of
moderate rainfall expected as a 50-kt S-SW LLJ transports
moisture and provides lift/convergence and some meager
instability mostly below the freezing level. Because the
instability will be limited to lower levels, have removed
mention of thunder though there could still be a convective
aspect to the precip at its peak via some meager H8-5
instability.

Showery precip should continue at times in the warm sector Wed
into Wed evening, then as vertically stacked low pressure crosses
the upper Great Lakes, a trailing cold front will move across
late Wed night, with precip ending and W winds picking up.

Temps daytime Tue will rise into the lower/mid 50s, then only
fall back slightly into the 40s Tue night. Highs in the warm
sector on Wed should reach the lower 60s in many spots before
sharply falling off late Wed night to the 30s and lower 40s
after cold fropa.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Points:

* Windy conditions looking more likely Thanksgiving Day through
  Friday. Possibility for wind gusts 30-35 mph Thanksgiving Day,
  and 35-40 mph with isolated gusts up to 45 mph on Friday.

* Colder than normal temperatures expected Thanksgiving Day
  through Saturday with highs in the lower/mid 40s and wind
  chills in the 30s.

* Mainly dry through this period, with chances of rain toward the
  end of the weekend into early next week.

A large anomalous upper level low and trough continue to
approach the area on Thursday. At the surface, strong low
pressure will be passing to our north while strong high pressure
sets up to our southwest. This places the area in a tight
pressure gradient and will bring windy conditions Thursday
through Friday. Peak winds are expected on Friday when deep
mixing will allow for widespread gusts up to 35-40 mph. The NBM
90th percentile was used for gusts as the NBM has been
under-doing winds in these deep mixing W-NW flow regimes. The
forecast may continue to trend up. At this time Advisory level
gusts are expected to be isolated.

High pressure eventually builds in and should be in control much
of the weekend. There is some disagreement in timing of when
the high will be centered over us. If the latest GFS ends up
being right, the Saturday night low temperature forecast will
end up trending down and we may see some upper teens across the
interior.

A cold front approaches late in the period and could bring some
rain to end the weekend and start next week. Stuck with NBM
PoP for now, but timing will be refined as we get closer.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure builds into the area through this evening and then
moves slowly offshore overnight. A warm front approaches from
the southwest on Tuesday.

Mainly VFR, becoming MVFR from 21Z-00Z Tue in developing rain.

Winds will be NW around 10 kt this afternoon. There may be a few
gusts 15-20 kt early, mainly at the eastern terminals. Winds
will become light this evening and then gradually veer around to
the SW. S/SW winds on Tuesday increase to 7-10 kt. Gusts up to
20 kt possible at the coastal terminals.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Winds may go light and variable at times overnight.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday Afternoon: Becoming MVFR toward evening with rain
becoming likely. Rain at night with MVFR/IFR. Chc S gusts
15-20 kt at the coastal terminals. Chc SW LLWS.

Wednesday: Chance of MVFR/IFR and showers in the morning and
possibly into the afternoon, otherwise becoming VFR through
the day.

Thursday through Friday: VFR. W flow with gusts 25-35 kt,
highest on Friday.

Saturday: VFR. W flow with gusts 15-20 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas have subsided for now as high pressure slides
across. As a warm front lifts through Tue night, S flow on the
ocean should increase to 20-25 kt, with seas building to 5-6 ft,
especially E of Fire Island Inlet. SCA issued from late Tue
night into Wed for these conditions.

Continued SCA conditions Wed night into Thu could potentially
reach gale force on the ocean waters by Thu afternoon. By
Fri, the ocean waters could see gusts up to 40 kt, while the non
ocean waters see gusts up to 35 kt. Additionally, seas likely
peak on Fri at 7-10 feet on the ocean, and 5-7 feet on
central/ern Long Island Sound.

Conditions gradually start to improve Fri night. Sub-SCA
conditions are expected by Sat afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
QPF from late day Tue into Wed evening has trended upward, with
amts 1/2 to 3/4 inch. There could be local amts up to 1 inch.
The bulk of the rainfall should occur Tue night.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight Tuesday night to 6 PM EST
     Wednesday for ANZ350-353.
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight Tuesday night to 10 AM EST
     Wednesday for ANZ355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BG/JT
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...BG/JT
HYDROLOGY...BG/JT