366
FXUS61 KOKX 262055
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
455 PM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
High wind warning for Long Island and parts of SE Connecticut
until 12PM Sunday. Wind advisory expanded to include Orange NY,
Putnam NY and Western Passaic NJ. Wind advisory for all zones
extended until 12PM Sunday. For the waters, all marine zones
except for NY Harbor now have the storm warning which is in
effect until 12PM Sunday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Nor`easter strong winds through early Sunday

2) Nor`easter heavy rain potential through the rest of the
weekend

3) Widespread coastal flooding impacts expected through the
weekend. Greatest impacts expected Saturday and Sunday.

4) High surf and rip current risk through at least Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
With increasing confidence of wind gusts reaching near 60 mph
for Long Island and some parts of Southeast Connecticut, the
wind advisory has been replaced with a high wind warning. These
locations especially across Eastern Long Island show some
potential within HREF of reaching near 70 mph at times with wind
gusts. The wind advisory has been expanded to cover the rest of
the forecast region, now including the zones of Orange NY,
Putnam NY, and Western Passaic NJ with the increased wind gust
forecast. Both of these wind hazards end at 12PM Sunday. Wind
headlines were extended farther into Sunday after analyzing
latest model guidance. The operational RRFS and HREF mean show
these near 60 mph wind gusts for Long Island and into parts of
Southeast CT into tonight and early Sunday morning. Even the
10th percentile of the HREF max wind gusts indicates this. For
places where the wind advisory remains, such as NYC, adjacent
zones of NE NJ, Southern Westchester and rest of Southern
Connecticut, there very well could be some occasional gusts up
to 60 mph but are not expected to be frequent.

Models indicate a further tightening of the pressure gradient
as the nor`easter approaches from the south and east into
tonight with central pressure around 990mb. For Sunday, the low
pressure area is expected to be just south of Long Island and
close to the NJ coastline. In terms of mid-latitude cyclone
evolution, this low has already occluded with relatively warmer
air around the center compared to surroundings.

Models continue to indicate a northwestward track of this
nor`easter through the rest of the weekend. They also continue
to indicate the low maintaining nearly the same strength with
some increased low level frontogenesis tonight into early Sunday
as the center makes it closest approach.

The models do indicate some weakening for the afternoon into
evening timeframe Sunday as the low fills in, allowing for a
relative loosening of the pressure gradient. Vertically, the low
is becoming more vertically stacked. For Sunday afternoon,
there could still be some gusts to 50 mph especially for the
first half, but feel these would be more isolated. Otherwise,
most gusts for Sunday afternoon expected to be within the 35 to
45 mph range.

Models also indicate a northward movement of the cutoff mid
level and associated vort max that moves in late tonight into
early Sunday. Along with this forcing, marginal elevated
instability works its way into the area from the east.
Potentially even more low level instability moves in late Sunday
into Sunday evening. With this, at times, there could be an
isolated embedded thunderstorms within the rain. Rain becomes
more of convective showers with the increase of low level
instability late Sunday into Sunday evening. The rain showers
continue into early Monday.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
The Weather Prediction Center has placed the area in its excessive
rainfall outlook for marginal to slight risk for the rest of this
weekend. The nor`easter will present some moments with heavy
rainfall but overall the storm total rain is expected to fall over a
long period of time, through Monday.

The storm total rainfall ranges from near 1.5 to near 4 inches, with
lowest amounts in parts of the Lower Hudson Valley and highest
amounts within parts of Suffolk County on Long Island. With the HREF
continuing to indicate within its 3 hr max QPF of there be less than
3 inches and not even 10 percent probability of achieving 3 inches
of rain within 3 hrs, there is less confidence on flash flooding
potential overall.

Heavy rain potential also with higher precipitable waters near 2
inches into tonight but both NAM and GFS do lower this quantity
closer to 1.5 inches for Sunday.

For now, decided to not go with a flood watch but did insert in the
hazardous weather outlook, the following, localized flash flooding
will be possible for the rest of the weekend. More common flooding
from the rain will be minor with ponding of water on roads in poor
drainage, low lying and urban areas. What will exacerbate this flood
potential will be near the coastlines, the ongoing coastal flooding
near times of high tide and any coinciding heavy rainfall. These
coastal areas could easily have excessive runoff with the heavy
rain.


.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Widespread minor to moderate, with locally major, coastal
flooding will occur around the times of high tide through Sunday
morning. Additional rounds of minor flooding possible Sunday
night through next week.

Surge guidance is overall bullish on lowering water levels
tonight as compared to this morning peak water levels, but then
rebounding a bit for Sunday AM. For southern and eastern bays of
LI, with continued gale to storm force northerly winds thru
tonight backing to the NE/E on Sunday, tidal piling, and gradually
rising astronomical tide levels, water levels will likely have
trouble falling too much with this evening and Sun AM high
tides.

Widespread moderate coastal flooding remains likely for Long
Island thru the Sun AM high tide, with locally major coastal
flooding is possible for southern Nassau and SW Suffolk,
including the north facing portions of the barrier islands and
twin forks/Peconic river. Water levels may not fall much if at
all below minor flood thresholds in a few of these spots even
during low tide. Wave action will exacerbate moderate shoreline
impacts along north facing shorelines.

Along western LI Sound, we could see higher water levels Sun AM
as compared to this morning due to winds backing to a more
favorable ENE flow for building surge and waves, and resulting
in a more widespread moderate flood threat.

For NYC/NJ harbor and the tidally effected waters of NE NJ and
the Lower Hudson Valley, the northerly flow through Sun AM should
keep impacts to generally minor to locally moderate through
these tidal cycles.

The current forecast is based on a blend of bias corrected 12Z
STOFS, and P-ETSS and Stevens NYHOPS 75th percentile forecasts.
With the tidal piling and backing of winds to the NE on Sunday,
we have leaned towards the 75th percentile of guidance to
incorporate a safety margin through Sun AM high tides.


.KEY MESSAGE 3...
High risk of rip currents and high surf through Sunday along
ocean shorelines. While ocean swells in outer ocean reach near
13-16 ft, surf height of near 7-11 ft expected closer to shore.
There will be some variation due to swell orientation, with
occasionally more ENE vs more ESE swell direction. The lack of
orthogonal component to shoreline really limits the surf heights
closer to the shore.

However, with current buoy observations running higher than
GFSWave by a few feet, felt wave heights are already within
advisory range within the surf zone. Beach flooding and erosion
can be expected today and into Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low pres will approach tngt, then track wwd S of LI on Sun. The low
will continue to bring strong winds and periods of rain.

MVFR or lower thru the TAF period. A few pockets of VFR early this
eve will drop to MVFR as additional rain bands move in. Solid MVFR
expected tngt, with IFR at times. IFR then thru the day on Sun with
CIGS blw 1000ft.

Isold embedded tstms will remain possible thru Sun mrng.

N-NE winds 15-30 kt with gusts 35-45 kt expected through early Sun
mrng. A few higher gusts up to 50 kt possible. Winds then veer to
the E thru the day on Sun and gradually diminish generally aft 16Z.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

CIGS could bounce between MVFR and IFR overnight. Occasional gusts
upwards of 50 kt possible thru about 15Z Sun. Chance of an isold
embedded tstm especially 08-13Z Sun.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Rest of Sunday: IFR in -RA/BR. Winds gradually diminishing.

Monday: MVFR or lower. Winds generally blw 20kt with VRB direction
thru the day.

Tuesday: Becoming VFR with light winds.

Wednesday: VFR with SW flow.

Thursday: VFR with W flow.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
High ocean seas near 15 to 20 ft and high LI Sound seas
near 5 to 9 ft forecast through early Sunday. Ocean seas
eventually forecast to lower to near 10 ft by late Sunday
afternoon into Sunday evening while LI Sound seas forecast to
lower near 6 ft. Both seas forecast to lower closer to 6 ft
late Sunday night into early Monday.

The aforementioned model consensus showing the higher gusts
near 60 mph for Long Island tonight into early Sunday also has
much of the surrounding waters also getting 60 mph wind gusts.

For the waters, all marine zones except for NY Harbor now have
the storm warning which is in effect until 12PM Sunday. The NY
Harbor still has their gale warning in effect until 6PM Sunday.
Essentially, after 12PM Sunday, expect gales on all waters. By
6PM Sunday, some gales could remain for parts of the waters.
Otherwise, high end SCA level wind gusts are expected, gusts
mostly near 30 kt. Wind gusts remain mainly within SCA levels
late Sunday night into Monday morning. Gusts eventually subside
below SCA levels by mid to late Monday afternoon but ocean seas
likely remain at SCA levels near 5 ft.

The eventual return of sub-SCA conditions for marine zones
except for ocean 20-60 nm out does not occur until closer to
Monday night when high pressure makes its return, building in
from the west. This continues into midweek for these waters
except for ocean out 20 to 60 nm which will take longer to
subside below SCA, probably not until Tuesday for those zones.
Then, those outer ocean zones are forecast to be below SCA into
midweek.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Wind Advisory until noon EDT Sunday for CTZ005>007-009-010.
     High Wind Warning until noon EDT Sunday for CTZ008-011-012.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 6 PM EDT Sunday for CTZ009-010.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT Sunday for CTZ011-012.
NY...Wind Advisory until noon EDT Sunday for NYZ067>075-176-178.
     High Wind Warning until noon EDT Sunday for NYZ078>081-177-179.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 6 PM EDT Sunday for NYZ071>075-
     078>081-176>179.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through Sunday evening for NYZ075-080-
     081-178-179.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
NJ...Wind Advisory until noon EDT Sunday for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 6 PM EDT Sunday for NJZ006-104-106-
     108.
MARINE...Storm Warning until noon EDT Sunday for ANZ331-332-335-340-345-
     350-353-355-380-383-385.
     Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ338.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...JM